Bihar: BJP’s Hindutva plank no match for Lalu-Nitish’s Mandal politics

With Hindutva politics having its own limitations in Bihar, political parties in the state have started focusing on playing caste politics to the hilt ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Even the BJP has realised it cannot depend on Hindutva politics beyond a point. It has thus started exploring the scope of Mandal politics – the ground of which so far has been trodden by regional satraps, RJD chief Lalu Prasad and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Both these leaders, belonging to the backward castes, redefined the political contours of Bihar by deftly playing Mandal politics.

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With the dominance of upper castes declining gradually, Bihar politics is now mainly driven by leaders from backward castes. The state has not had a chief minister from an upper caste since 1990, when Congress lost power to RJD chief Lalu. 

Lalu and his wife Rabri Devi were alternately chief ministers of the state till 2005, when the NDA formed the government under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. Since then, Nitish has held the top post except between May 20, 2014 and February 22, 2015, when  he offered it to Jitan Ram Manjhi after the JD(U) could win only two seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

Acknowledging the growing importance of Mandal politics in the state, former Deputy CM and BJP MP Sushil Kumar Modi claimed that his party had always been in support of a caste census. He asserted that the Narendra Modi government had expressed its inability to conduct it nationwide due to ‘practicalities’.

How RJD, JD(U) played Mandal politics

Mandal politics has played a major role in shaping the politics of the RJD and the JD(U). And both parties have spared no opportunity to derive political mileage out of it.

Caste-based census has been close to the heart of RJD for a long time. Lalu had fervently demanded the release of caste data after the then UPA government dragged its feet on the same despite conducting a socio-economic and caste census in 2011. It is another matter that his demand was never met.

If Lalu made noises about the revelation of the results of the caste census in 2011, Nitish also tried to consolidate his position as a formidable backward leader. It was on his initiative that both houses of the state legislature passed two unanimous resolutions in 2019 and 2020 in favour of a caste-based count. It only shows how caste census is important to the most prominent backward caste leaders of Bihar, Lalu and Nitish.

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Dominant backward castes plan to use the results of the caste-based census to demand higher reservation quota in proportion to their population, exerting additional political pressure on the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, said political analyst Indrajit Singh.

Call to remove reservation cap

Nitish has also assiduously cultivated the Dalit vote bank. To broaden his Dalit support base further, he has asked police to file chargesheets in cases registered under the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act within 60 days and ensure speedy disposal of cases.

Although Nitish has welcomed the Supreme Court’s verdict upholding 10 per cent quota for Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) in government jobs and educational institutions, he at the same time has demanded the removal of the 50 per cent cap on reservation.

He contends that without removing the 50 per cent cap, equitable opportunities cannot be extended to Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Economically Backward Classes (EBCs) in proportion to their population.

Bihar`s reservation quotas have been within 50 per cent so far.  As per the current break-up, 16 per cent quota is for Scheduled Castes (SCs), one percent for Scheduled Tribes (STs), 18 per cent for EBC, 12 per cent for OBC and 3 per cent for women. The 10 per cent EWS quota takes the total reservation to 60 per cent in the state.

Socialist politics is considered the common thread binding the two great products of the JP movement – Lalu and Nitish. So, even before Nitish finally snapped his ties with the BJP this August, he and Lalu`s son Tejashwi Yadav, who is now Bihar’s Deputy CM, closed ranks on the issue of caste census.

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The Bihar government is now conducting a caste census on its own and recently extended the deadline for completing the exercise by three months, to May 2023. The state government will spend ₹500 crore from its contingency fund to conduct the caste census.

Both Lalu and Nitish want to reveal the results of the caste census publicly closer to the 2024 Lok Sabha election with an objective to extract maximum political mileage from the entire exercise, remarked Singh, the political analyst.

Is BJP battle-ready?

At a time when the RJD and the JD(U) are aggressively pursuing Mandal politics, it would be only foolish for the BJP to sit back and comfortably bank on its Hindutva politics to do the job, particularly when it has limited appeal in Bihar, say political analysts.

“The BJP may not like to play backward politics as aggressively as Bihar’s two other regional parties,” remarked political analyst Pravin Bagi.  “In such a situation, it will run the risk of losing its core vote bank, mainly upper castes.”

As the Narendra Modi government has already refused a country-wide caste census, Nitish’s decision to conduct one in Bihar from the state government’s own resources has only created a politically inconvenient situation for the BJP, Bagi noted. Now, it would be difficult for the saffron party to explain to voters why the Centre is not conceding to the JD(U)’s demand for a nationwide caste census, he observed.

But, if the BJP has to counter the ‘backward politics’ of RJD and JD(U), it will have to strike a balance cautiously by giving a good number of tickets to leaders from OBCs, EBCs and Dalit communities in the 2024 election, said another political observer. It would be interesting to see if Modi’s charisma will be able to neutralise the impact of Nitish`s JD(U) snapping ties with the NDA, resulting in a possible shift in caste dynamics.

Although it is assumed that Nitish’s core voters, comprising EBCs and Dalits, have no problem with the political realignment (with the RJD), the BJP will try to create an impression about how they are uncomfortable with the new political equation. A large chunk of EBCs and Dalits are wary of the Yadav hegemony in society making a comeback with the return of RJD to power, remarked a political analyst on the condition of anonymity. The BJP will exploit this ‘uneasiness’ among EBCs and Dalits, he added.

Bihar vs UP in Hindutva politics

Unlike neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the BJP could not achieve success on the same scale in Bihar by playing the Hindutva card. Bihar has been witness not only to socialist and Left movements but also to Maoist insurgency, remarked political analyst Bagi. In the given situation, the BJP will find it difficult to dent deep into the state, particularly when Mandal politics is on the rise.

Also read: ‘Jungle Raj’ image comes back to haunt Nitish as BJP sharpens its claws

Left parties continue to have their influence in certain pockets of the state as CPI(ML) won 12 out of 19 seats in the last state assembly election. Two other Left parties – CPI and CPI(M) – also won two seats each. So, out of 29 seats that Left parties contested, they emerged victorious in 16. Although their alliance with the RJD helped them win so many seats, their relevance in the state politics cannot be undermined, posing another challenge to the BJP.

“Unlike Uttar Pradesh, Bihar does not have a strong Hindutva leader behind whom the majority of castes can rally. The RSS too is not that active in Bihar,” Bagi said. As the sharp caste division still survives in Bihar, it acts as an impediment for the BJP which conventionally derives electoral strength from the homogeneity of Hindus.

Lalu who had stopped LK Advani’s Rath Yatra in 1990 continued to remain a strong anti-Hindutva leader, posing another challenge to the BJP, even though the saffron party improved its seat tally in various elections substantially.

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