Politics in N-E makes strange bedfellows; 'mock' contests dominate Manipur polls

Politics does make strange bedfellows and this is most true in North East (N-E).

There is a growing fear now that Manipur too will fall prey to this game of opportunism and witness the most unlikely political alliances coming together with the sole purpose of grabbing power. This concern came to the fore after three BJP-allies-turned bitter opponents emerged as strong challengers to the saffron party in the ongoing Manipur elections.

The region of late has witnessed the most incongruous coalition politics wherein bitter political rivals have overnight turned friends to be able to get a slice of the power pie. In the process, numbers in the Opposition benches have been rapidly dwindling in the state assemblies. To the extent that in some cases, the Opposition benches are practically empty as in the case of Nagaland.

In this hill state, the Opposition party, the Naga Peoples’ Front (NPF) and a lone independent MLA joined hands with the ruling National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and the BJP to form a government sans an Opposition in September last year.

The Congress did not win a single seat in this state in the last assembly elections held in 2018.

Strangely, even before the all-encompassing coalition, christened the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) was stitched together, both the NDPP and the NPF were part of the Northeast Democratic Alliance (NEDA) anchored by the BJP. This essentially meant that the saffron party was the partner of both the ruling and the Opposition party in the state!

Also read: BJP will win 30 of 38 seats in Manipur: CM Biren Singh

More bizarre developments in Meghalaya

More bizarre political developments took place last month in Meghalaya when all the five Congress MLAs joined the National People’s Party (NPP)-led ruling Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA), of which the BJP is a constituent. The legislators submitted their acceptance to join the coalition on a Congress letterhead without resigning from the party. This technically made the Congress an ally of the BJP.

After the initial shock, the Congress sent a show-cause notice to the legislators. But the high command has still not expelled these turncoats from the party even after a month. The Congress sources in Meghalaya said the party high command is yet to take a call on the fate of the five MLAs.

About two months ago, 12 Congress legislators under the leadership of former Chief Minister Mukul Sangma joined the Trinamool Congress. This made the TMC the main Ppposition party in the state assembly though it did not even contest any elections in the state.

The NPP and the BJP are currently part of the ruling coalitions in Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh but the two are locking horns with each other in the ongoing Manipur elections.

In fact, even in Manipur, the NPP and the BJP shared power in the outgoing government.  Senior NPP leader Yumnam Joykumar Singh is the deputy CM in Biren Singh’s BJP-led government.

Not only NPP, BJP’s two other allies the JD(U) and the NPF are also pitted against the party in the Manipur assembly elections. The BJP and the JD (U) are currently sharing power in Bihar and also in Arunachal Pradesh.

What’s more, the NPF along with the BJP is part of the government in Nagaland, which has no Opposition party. It’s also the alliance partner in the outgoing Manipur government.

Also read: Polling begins for 38 seats in first phase of Manipur assembly elections

The complicated politics of Manipur

The BJP’s three allies turned rivals in Manipur, political observers say, will hold the key for the next government formation, as no political party appears to be quite sure of getting absolute majority in the 60-member House.

“The indication is that the state will again have a hung assembly with the JD (U) and the NPP taking a significant share of the anti-incumbency vote, thereby spoiling the chances of the Congress’s party. The NPF is also expected to increase its tally in the Naga areas of the state,” said political commentator Xavier Mao, who teaches at the North Eastern Hills University.

Professor Mao’s assessment is echoed by senior Imphal-based journalist and author Pradip Phanjoubam. “The electoral battle here is no longer essentially between the BJP and the Congress. The NPP, JD (U) and the NPF are expected to upset both the BJP and the Congress’s calculations,” he said.

The NPP and the JD(U) are contesting 38 seats each, while the NPF has fielded candidates in 10 Naga dominated constituencies. The BJP is contesting all the 60 seats, while the Congress has put up candidates in 53 seats. Even the BJP insiders feel that the party will not cross the magical figure of 31 due to “poor candidate selections” and defections.

However, they are quite confident in forming the government with the help of the JD (U), NPF and the NPP.

The BJP came second winning 21 seats as against Congress’s 28 in the 2017 assembly elections. But it managed to form the government with the help of NPP, NPF and the defectors from the Congress.

“Popular mandates are frequently subverted by politics of opportunism, which is now rampant in the northeast. There are possibilities that BJP’s old allies will bury the hatchet after the results. After all, they all are constituents of the NEDA,” Mao said.

The JD(U) by not filing a candidate against Chief Minister Biren Singh already indicated where its heart lies. The NPF is also not averse to joining hands with the BJP again. As for the NPP, the party is not only the BJP’s alliance partner in Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh, but also at the Centre.

Political observers have reasons to be cynical about the “mock fight” being staged by the NEDA constituents in Manipur.

In the 2019 Arunachal Pradesh elections, the JD (U) and the NPP contested against the BJP only to join hands after the elections. Six of the seven JD (U) MLAs later in December 2020 even joined the BJP, in a strange case of the saffron party poaching its own ally.

Frenemies bond in Assam

Similarly, political realignment among “frenemies” was also seen in Assam. The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which had severed ties with the BJP to ally with the Congress in the 2021 assembly elections, returned to the saffron fold in January this year.

The three BPF MLAs now sit in the treasury bench along with the legislators of the other ruling alliance partners, including its main political rival in Bodoland, the United People’s Party Liberal.

Truly, nothing is strange in politics. More so in the northeast now.