West Bengal polls: TMC likely to win big again, but worries remain for Mamata

Trinamool Congress might romp home with a big win in West Bengal’s rural elections when the results are announced on Tuesday (July 11), but Saturday’s violence-ridden election could make the Mamata Banerjee-led party introspect in some ways.

The TMC no doubt can draw comfort from a lack of strong anti-incumbency seen this time against the party-led government despite many of its leaders’ alleged involvement in cash-for-job scams, cattle smuggling and syndicate raj.

Barring a few minority-dominated pockets in Murshidabad and Malda, Kurmi-majority areas of Jangalmahal and BJP strongholds of Cooch Behar and Alipurduars, the TMC domination seems to be continuing in the state.

BJP’s vote share likely to take a huge dip

An exit poll conducted by C-Voter for Bengali news channel ABP Ananda predicted that 45 percent vote share could land in TMC’s kitty, with BJP at a distant second with 27 percent vote share. The Left-Congress combine is projected to get 18 percent votes.

The TMC had polled 48.02 percent votes, the BJP 37.97 percent and the Left-Congress alliance secured around 10 percent votes in the 2021 Assembly elections. The exit poll figures indicate that the TMC is, by and large, holding onto its vote share with a drop of just two percent.

With 10 percent drop, the BJP appears to be the biggest loser. The Congress-Left, on the other hand, appears to be regaining ground with the exit poll predicting around 8 percent increase in its vote share.

Unless there is a strong undercurrent of discontent against the TMC that went totally unnoticed on the surface, which is unlikely, the political trend captured by the exit poll is unlikely to change.

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Oppositions may claim that the TMC domination is orchestrated by large-scale violence that resulted in killing of 18 people on the polling day itself, but many believe TMC itself is behind unleashing violence.

“This time, the violence was not as widespread across the state as it was in the 2018 panchayat elections,” said senior journalist Amal Sarkar. The official death toll in the 2018 panchayat elections was 14. Most victims then were opposition workers.

This time, 11 of the 18 killed were TMC workers. This is for the first time after it came to power in 2011 that the TMC found itself at the receiving end of violence. The fightback reportedly came from the Left-Congress workers.

The death toll of its workers will certainly worry the TMC even if it sweeps the elections. Analysts say it indicates that the opposition is acquiring strength, be it in limited pockets, to fight back the might of the ruling party.

Another worrisome sign for the TMC is the way the Left-Congress had put up resistance in the minority-dominated districts of Malda and Murshidabad. This is also an indication of the weakening of the TMC’s hold among minorities.Trinamool Congress might romp home with a big win in West Bengal’s rural elections when the results are announced on Tuesday (July 11), but Saturday’s violence-ridden election could make the party introspect in some ways.