Whatever has happened to the war in Ukraine? Why is it not ending?

The war in Ukraine has moved out of the front pages, only marginally present in mainline television news on most days and possibly pushed to the sidelines of public memory.  Except of course in Ukraine, where the conflict, in its 10th week, is a lived reality.

For Ukraine, time stands still as Russia continues to subject its once thought-to-be inalienable sibling to relentless bombing and destruction. Hundreds of civilians have died while thousands have been displaced. The conflict appears to have moved into uncharted territory.

Also read: How far will Putin go in Ukraine? Georgia may hold the answers

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after the first few days of fighting, had agreed to Moscow’s demand of not joining the western military alliance, NATO. But, for reasons that are not entirely clear, Russian President Vladimir Putin was unimpressed by the assurance and the fighting has continued for 70 days.

A proactive West

The United States-led Western alliance has meanwhile become more proactive and has openly sent armaments, advisers and aid to Ukraine. According to reports, the US has earmarked $1 billion worth arms to Ukraine including anti-tank missiles, combat drones and howitzers. The conclusion is inescapable: it is a replay of the Cold War, with the West taking on Russia but at the expense of Ukraine.

For Putin who, to begin with, probably expected it to be a quick attack and withdrawal like against Georgia in 2008, the denouement is forcing him to recalibrate his strategy – one reason why Russia after the initial pummelling has turned more selective in its attack, while not going for an all-out invasion of the capital Kyiv.

On Thursday, Russia even tried out simulated nuclear missile strikes at Kaliningrad on the border with the European Union. Whether Putin intends this as a signal to the West to back off, or if the nuclear exercise gives a clear idea where the war is heading, should become obvious in the next few days.

Also read: Loss of US’s moral standing, Ukraine’s delusion prevent end to conflict

It has been clear from the beginning that Putin did not intend to occupy Ukraine and forcibly re-attach it to Russia, as was being speculated by a section of the Western media.  If at all, Putin’s interest has been limited to the eastern Donbas region adjacent to Russia, as well as the Crimean peninsula – these to act as the final cushion in the event of a Western assault on Russia.

The fighting, therefore, has largely been confined to eastern Ukraine besides the siege around Kyiv. The central and western parts of Ukraine have largely been off Putin’s radar.

Reworked strategy

After the initial shock of the invasion, the Western powers have reworked their strategy and tried to make Putin pay for his attack on Ukraine. It is tempting to take a look at history and see how the erstwhile Soviet Union, once a mighty superpower, was bled to “death” by the US during Moscow’s decade-long involvement in Afghanistan in the 1980’s. From the looks of it, the West is attempting a similar strategy.

The US, Germany and other allies in Europe are backing Zelenskyy to stay the course and put up a stiff resistance. For Russia, this poses a dilemma as its hand is being forced – either back off or go for an all-out attack. The hiatus in the intensity of fighting can either be linked to Russia’s indecision or the calm before another all-out attack.

At the same time, reports are emerging of Putin’s ailment, cancer to boot, forcing him to think of handing over the reins of the battle to senior aide Nikolai Patrushev. These are unconfirmed reports and could well be the work of the West’s “dirty tricks” department. In the past, sections of the Western media have come up with similar stories, whenever their governments run into a wall and are clueless about what their rivals are planning.

Also read: Meet Patrushev, who may take charge of Russia, as Putin heads for cancer treatment

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been “killed” several times by the media – the fierce speculation dying down only when the leader made a public appearance. Similarly, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was reported to be dead, dying etc., until he was finally killed in Abbottabad.

Placing Putin’s stance

Putin, besides a warning or two to Ukraine and the West not to provoke him, hasn’t exactly spelt out how he wants to handle the current “impasse”.  Others in the Russian establishment have variously warned of a “third world war” and “nuclear conflict” but there’s nothing substantial from him. So, the Western media is trying out its time-tested method of provoking Putin in the hope that some clue will emerge.

As for Russia, there’s no hurry to make a point. The US-led sanctions against Moscow have only worked to a limited extent since Europe largely depends on Russian oil and there have practically been little or no curbs on accepting their sale.

Also read: Economic consequences of the war in Ukraine

After the first burst of invasion followed by the low-intensity fighting, it is anyone’s guess which way the war will progress. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently observed that there would be no winners in the war, if at all, he was only partially right.  Ukraine is definitely not a winner in any case given the widespread destruction, death and displacement of its people. But that cannot be said either of Russia or the US-led West.

Proxy war

For, it is becoming increasingly clear  that this is a proxy war between Russia and the US-led NATO nations. And, chances are one will win and the other will lose. A third scenario is a stalemate – meaning that the fighting will never intensify into an outright occupation but will continue as a low-grade conflict for an extended period of time. That would result in Ukraine’s debilitating disability, besides the continuing human suffering that millions of Ukrainians will have to go through.

President Zelenskyy, rather than looking at the conflict coloured by a Western perspective, would ideally do well to look (from an independent view) at solutions that help Ukraine.  This, even if it means a tactical step back from his pro-West position for the sake of peace and the safety of his fellow-citizens. But this possibility appears remote at the moment.