Waiting for the bell: COVID-19 and uncertain face of global education

Never before in the recent past has the world seen such a transformation. In a span of about five months, the international system is literally standing on its head, not knowing when the worst is about to come or if it has indeed passed by. The coronavirus has infected more than 5 million people across some 190 countries and territories with the United States alone accounting for some 1.7 million cases and a death toll inching towards 100,000 at the time of writing with none of the 50 states spared of the traumatic times. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have predicted some dire economic times for much of the developed and developing countries with the world economic growth expected to tank some 5 per cent this year, with little to no signs of early recovery.

If there is one area where there has been some global concern on the implications of the coronavirus, it is in the realm of education where not only individual countries but also international organizations have voiced deep concern at the current state of affairs. Already faced with a learning deficit The World Bank and other functional agencies of the United Nations have drawn attention to the plight of children who have been essentially pushed out of schools, not because educators and administrators wanted to but on account of safety issues brought about the pandemic. Effectively since March schools across continents have shuttered leaving close to two billion children out on a limb. In countries like India where there is the linkage between food, nutrition and education by way of a noon meal program, other factors like hunger and poverty also come into play.

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Not everything boils down to examinations and moving students from one grade to another. Educational regulators in some countries are bent out of shape in trying to fathom how best to weave in the so-called Board Examinations in the face of uncertainty particularly in the newfound framework of cleanliness, sanitation and social distancing. And some states in India face the daunting challenge of having students even appear in the centers in the absence of adequate transportation facilities. In all the hoopla surrounding the schedule and when primary, secondary and high school students are going to meet again for the next academic year, there is the near tendency to completely forget the psychological aspect—the prospect of a youngster coming to school and not finding a friend who may have been a victim of the deadly virus. In developed countries for instance, in the aftermath of a tragedy such as a school shooting, counselors are pressed into overtime to deal with the anxieties of children, something that developing and under developed economies are yet to have a firm grip on.

“As seen from previous health emergencies… the impact on education is likely to be most devastating in countries with already low learning outcomes, high dropout rates and low resilience to shocks. While school closures seem to present a logical solution to enforce social distancing within communities, prolonged closures tend to have a disproportionately negative impact on the most vulnerable students. They have fewer opportunities for learning at home, and their time out of school may present economic burdens for parents who may face prolonged childcare, or even adequate food in the absence of school meals”, The World Bank recently said.

In a country like India, in spite of the best efforts of the Center and the States in trying to make up for lost classroom time by embarking on online mode of teaching, certain imperatives cannot be wished away: fewer than 60 per cent of school children have access to computers, online teaching comes with the need for additional data which translates into money and far flung areas of the country where many students live have the problem of connectivity. In an educational system that already faces the criticism of pandering to the elite by way of the gross disparities between the private and government schools, even the best intentions of the governments run into legitimate criticism and eventually litigations as well.

The economic consequences of the COVID-19 has also been staggering with many emerging economies still at the drawing boards in figuring out just how much has been “lost” in shutting down institutions as a result of the pandemic. The prestigious Brookings Institution, using a mathematical model, has said that the cost to the United States in future earnings of four months of lost education is US$ 2.5 trillion, or 12.7 per cent of the annual GDP. This is in the assumption that the nearly 76 million students enrolled in schools, colleges and universities will be closed at least until the Fall ( August/ September). “Extrapolating to the global level, on the basis that the U.S. economy represents about one quarter of the global output, these data suggest that the world could lose as much as US$ 10 trillion over the coming generation as a result of school closures today”, the Brookings study has said.

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In the context of the coronavirus and education, a question has also been asked globally is if governments have allocated additional resources to meet the existing and future contingencies. The International Monetary Fund has recently pointed out that developed and emerging market economies have provided some US$ 9 Trillion by the middle of April, or some US$ 1 Trillion more than what was initially earmarked. Countries like the United States, South Korea, Japan, France and India have pumped in resources on varied fronts; but often the criticism has been that education—an extremely vital sector in economic and human development—has been given the short shrift.

For instance, in the US$ 2.2 Trillion stimulus package put together by the Trump administration and Congress only US$ 14 billion has been allocated to universities and colleges, a figure that has been dismissed as “woefully inadequate” by the American Council on Education. Further in a supplemental that has passed the House of Representatives on strictly partisan lines, US$ 100 billions have been allocated, ninety per cent of which will be part of a State Fiscal Stabilisation Fund with 65 per cent earmarked to Kindergarten to Grade 12 schools and some money allocated for public colleges, universities, non-profit and minority serving institutions. The Republican leadership in the Senate has said that the Bill passed in the House is “dead on arrival”, meaning that the impending legislation is a non-starter.

The situation is not too different in Britain, where Universities and colleges have asked for billions of pounds with a report from the University and College Union (UCU) warning that the education sector could lose some 2.5 Billion Pounds in tuition fees alone for the next academic year along with a projected loss of some 30,000 University jobs. The financial doomsday predictions get gloomier should both domestic and international students stay away from enrollment in the face of a continuing COVID-19 scare. The UCU has maintained that universities stand to lose 1.5 Billion pounds just in international student fees which would be much more than that of U.K. based domestic students and those coming from the European Union combined.

In the United States it is said that international students pump in between US$ 41 billion and US$ 45 Billion to the American economy providing for some 450,000 jobs; but what has been forgotten in the process is that the money ploughed in by the foreign student by way of paying full fee or the out-of-state tuition fee also goes to an extent to subsidize the educational cost for a domestic student. The bigger problem right now for educators around the world is much beyond putting a dollar value for lost time since March by way of the closure of educational institutions, the projected lost revenues or the endless debate on who wins and who loses in money spent by an international student. The fact remains that education has been impacted far more than anyone had imagined leaving governments, regulators and private sectors baffled at the enormity of the problem as well as the alternative strategies that are currently in play.

Some educational institutions have already switched to the online mode to make up for lost classes and time; others like Cambridge University have pointedly said that the online mode is the only available mode of teaching for 2020-21 and that there is no fee differential between regular University style of classes and way of life and the online mode. The Cambridge message is unambiguous: online teaching will be as good as regular class instruction. And governments in some parts of the world keep postponing dates of examinations and opening of institutions as if to hope that the virus would just vanish into thin air one fine morning. Even the Ivy League institutions in America which have deep endowment pockets have started feeling the financial pinch and are debating loudly on the advantages and disadvantages of transforming the pattern of education.

Many small colleges in America have started winding up or looking for merger with other institutions with the potential coming together bringing with it related issues and problems like shrinking faculty and non teaching staffers. And in some developing countries there is the additional burden on educational institutions as they have donned the hat of a Placement Officer as well—whether companies will make that final call of selection depending on whether the student completed his education “regularly” or had some of his classes in the online mode. After all at one point of time many educators, administrators and regulators had the tendency to under-value a degree earned through “Correspondence” education.

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What is the fine line of distinction between Correspondence, Distance and Online educations? As Yoon Kim of The Classroom puts it, “Correspondence education is part of distance education in which all the course materials are given to the learner via mail or electronic means so that she can master the materials on her own at her own pace. Distance education nowadays means online education with various instructional delivery models, synchronous or asynchronous, using Internet or TV. Both models came into being to implement, overcome or improve the existing brick-and-mortar instructional model”.

In all the calculations there is something that simply cannot be missed be it a domestic student waiting anxiously for the institution to re-open or that of an international student torn between wanting to stay in his chosen country of study or returning home unsure of whether there will be a chance to get back to  his unfinished business. There is also the domestic student who had all his bags and dreams packed and waiting for the Visa with the big question whether embassies and consulates will open their doors to put a stamp on his passport or if he would have to unpack and look at options back home, permanently or for a period of time. Many international students in the Asia Pacific, Europe or the Americas had literally used up all their family savings in the pursuit of a passion and now wondering if the situation is going to ever return to the pre-pandemic environment. And for all those brilliant young minds who had finished their course of study and waiting to put to use their practical training permits, the jolt has come by way of company closures and millions of locals already out on unemployment benefits. COVID-19 has indeed left its imprint for generations to come!

(The writer was a former senior journalist in Washington D.C. covering North America and the United Nations.)

(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)