The occasional huffing and puffing about H1B visas amid pandemic

US President Donald Trump is once again thinking of suspending H1B visas and a host of other work-related permits ostensibly to address conservative concerns of rising unemployment in the country as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

This time around Trump is apparently even contemplating placing on hold the one to three year Optional Training Permit that is generally available to students graduating with Master’s or higher degrees. If the administration goes through with its thinking, it would only add to the choke that has already been placed on higher education in the United States: foreign students are facing uncertain times because of the deadly virus; and a further drop is expected in enrollment in universities and colleges.

The squeezing of H1B visas and OPTs will only make matters worse from an education point of view in America. For one thing, the expected drop in students coming over is bound to put a large financial hole in the pockets of universities and colleges, some of whom are already considering shuttering or merging. And for another, the disincentive of non-availability of the OPT will force potential graduate students to look elsewhere for study and gainful employment thereafter.

Recently, the Trump administration has indicated that it will insist on a specific time period for each student to remain in the country and in the process doing away with the “Duration of Status” that is currently stamped on a F-1 visa.

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Long before the outbreak of COVID-19, students and high skilled professionals from India have shifted their sights away from the United States as their land of opportunity. In the face of a hostile Trump administration on matters of immigration — with the President heading the cheerleading group — potential graduate and undergraduate students from India have started looking at countries like Canada for higher studies and easing into the job market upon graduation minus all the theatrics and uncertainties. And Canada has done well to sell itself as an excellent alternative for education and unemployment. By and large, the country is seen and perceived to be far more peaceful than the United States by way of gun-related violence.

Universities in the United States are seeing a 25 per cent dip in graduate student enrolment from India, according to the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) in a study released on June 8, 2020.

Statistics have been presented to show that in 2016-17 some 47,430 students from India enrolled in graduate level computer science programs in American Universities; in 2018-19 this dropped to 36,350 or by 23 per cent. Likewise graduate engineering programs saw a 27.5 per cent drop — from an enrolled strength of 39,470 students from India to 28,600 in 2018-19.

The criticality of Indian graduate students to American higher institutions could not have been put better by the NFAP in a statement as quoted by India West: “As a source of research assistants, graduate students help professors conduct research and retain top faculty. Without the ability to perform high-level research, many leading professors would move on to other careers, which would weaken American universities as a global center for science, In addition to subsidizing tuition for many domestic students, international students make more courses available for U.S. students.”

American multinationals and Chambers of Commerce see the short-sightedness of curbing H1B visas and optional (practical) training permits; and have often prevailed on any administration that was toying with these ideas and that too brazenly for political gain.

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Even in the current context the CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Thomas Donahue, in a letter to the President has said, “If companies cannot hire new H1B workers or continue to employ current H1B workers, innovation and productivity growth would suffer greatly”.

But it is highly unlikely that this would make an impact especially if President Trump has set his mind for domestic political gain, to re-energize his political base on the primacy of the American worker or to drive home a message of getting tough on immigration.

According to the India West, which quotes figures from the Canadian Bureau of International Education, there has been a 127 per cent increase in Indian students enrolling in Canadian universities — from 76,000 in 2016 to 172,625 in 2018; and with a corresponding increase in the number of Indians who have become permanent residents. The numbers speak of a 117 per cent increase, from 39,340 in 2016 to 85,585 in 2019.

“Canada is benefiting from a diversion of young Indian tech workers from U.S. destinations, largely because of the challenges of obtaining and renewing H-1B visas and finding a reliable route to U.S. permanent residence. Canada allows for a smooth transition from international student to work after graduation. That creates a path to permanent residence,” Peter Rekai, a Toronto based attorney has been quoted in the NFAP report.

There is no doubt that the President is in a political bind in which he will be less inclined to listen to rational words from Chambers of Commerce in the United States and India or the political leadership in New Delhi.

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Trump will make the point that he is doing what it takes to protect American economic interests especially in the context of nearly 21 million people out of jobs; and a deep concern of what is in store should a Second Round of the virus take a heavier toll than the story thus far.

So far around 1,14,000 Americans have lost their lives and over 2 million infected in all the 50 states; and the apprehensions of the impending economic impact of another spike. For now, it is unlikely that the prospect of Indian students going to Canada instead of coming to America or Indians taking permanent residency in Canada in record numbers is going to give Trump any sleepless nights.

(The writer was a former senior journalist in Washington D.C. covering North America and the United Nations.)

(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)