Soleimani killing: Has Trump stirred up a hornet’s nest?

The targeted killing of Iran’s General Qasem Soleimani by the US has threatened to throw the already volatile political situation in West Asia in deeper turmoil.

The drone attack on Friday (January 3) by the US near the Bagdad international airport, which killed the charismatic Soleimani, has shocked the Iranian establishment, which has vowed “severe revenge” against the US.

Make no mistake, Iran has to. For Soleimani was no ordinary figure. He was seen as the de facto number two in the pecking order in Iran – next only to the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A child of the Revolution, Soleimani was also considered to be close to the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and rose in rank to be the head of the Quds Force, the external operations wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – somewhat akin to the CIA, MI 6 or India’s RAW.

As the head of the Quds Force, Soleimani had worked across west Asia to bolster Iranian interests – be it in strengthening the Shi’ite force Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza or the Syrian regime of Bashar al Assad against the local opposition. His hand was also seen in training various Iraqi Shia militias against the Islamic State (IS).

(The immediate provocation for his assassination by the US seems to be the killing of a US defence contractor in Iraq in December which the US blamed on Iran. This was followed by a retaliatory US attack on Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia supported by Iran. Later the US embassy in Baghdad was attacked – allegedly by Kataib Hezbollah.)

How will Iran respond? 

Soleimani’s killing is no doubt a serious blow to Iran. Its “revenge” vow is, of course, a serious one, though it can only take the form of indirect attacks against US military assets in West Asia through its proxies in the region.

This has the potential to trigger further retaliation by the US and suck the region into deeper conflicts.

Also read: New air strike on pro-Iran convoy in Iraq ahead of Soleimani’s funeral

However, Iran’s first response has already come in the way of its announcement that it will no longer abide by the limitations of the nuclear deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – it entered into with international powers led by the US in 2015.

(The deal with US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China imposed limits on Iran’s ability to enrich uranium in its nuclear reactors which would have enabled it to acquire weapons-grade uranium. The quid pro quo was the easing of economic sanctions against Iran, in force since 2010. )

Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 blaming his predecessor Obama of signing a weak deal that had the effect of reining in Tehran only for 15 years. He wanted a deal with longer shelf life and wanted its scope expanded to include Iranian missile capability and prevent its involvement in regional conflicts. Trump also reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran, severely damaging its economy.

Also read: Donald Trump ordered killing of Iranian commander, says Pentagon; oil prices hit

This deal is now dead as a dodo. Though Iran has stopped short of entirely pulling out of the deal and has kept the door open for future negotiations, observers feel its decision to abandon restrictions on enrichment limits amounts to killing the treaty.

Tehran could also instigate attacks by Hezbollah and other proxy forces on Israel, thereby making a regional conflict a certainty.

Conflict may choke the oil flow 

Regional security experts point out that an easy way for Iran to retaliate would be to attack Western oil containers in the Strait of Hormuz – or worse, impose a blockade of the Strait, which carries up to 30% of the world’s oil flow.

The Strait, lying at the southern coast of Iran, is what global oil experts call, the “choke point” of oil flow. But doing this would be a risky affair as it would definitely invite western naval action and inflame the region further.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to target 52 Iranian sites if Iran chooses to escalate. This would indeed be a serious response, if Trump chooses to do that, for, as the Iranian foreign minister pointed out, targeting cultural sites amounted to a war crime.

Also read: US shocks world by killing Soleimani; Does sovereignty matter?

Even the UK, a long-term ally of the US, was squirming at Trump’s threat. A Downing Street spokesman was quoted as saying that targeting cultural sites would be in breach of the warfare conventions.

However, the western allies of the US have not so far openly criticised the Trump administration’s move to assassinate the Iranian General and stoke regional tensions. While British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, returning from his Carribean holiday, said Soleimani was “a threat to all our interests” and “Britain will not lament his death”, he, however, appealed to all sides to de-escalate.

(The other European powers, France and Germany, have also been lukewarm about the US strike, while not openly upbraiding Trump, they called for “restraint” and also asked Iran not to go back on the nuclear deal. Russia and China, the other two parties to the deal, while condemning the killing, have urged restraint on the part of Iran.)

Killing may strengthen Mullahs in Iran

Critics of Trump’s move point out that the killing has the effect of tightening the Mullahs’ stranglehold on Iranian society. The theocracy which has been in power in Iran for the past nearly four decades has shown signs of losing public support in recent years. Years of economic mismanagement combined with suppression of democratic rights has led to popular disenchantment with the clerics, which surfaced in occasional outbursts of protest, like the November protests over fuel prices. The Iranian regime, displaying ruthless force, crushed the protests and also ensured the crackdown was not reported widely.

However, the US action against a man perceived as a hero has resulted in an outpouring of nationwide grief, as evidenced by the huge crowds that turned up at the funeral of Soleimani in Tehran.

Also read: Iran names Esmail Qaani new Quds chief after Soleimani’s death

An Iranian journalist based in London told me the killing had the effect of quelling domestic dissent against the regime and rallying the population behind the clerics – at least for now.

The Soleimani killing has already led to a surge in oil prices, with the Brent crude posting more than $ 70 per barrel at the time of writing. Economists feel if the tensions escalate into a regional conflict, the world economy is in for another serious jolt.

India’s dilemma

For regional powers like India, any further deterioration of the tensions between the US and Iran would pose serious geopolitical dilemmas.

Indian economy, already slowing down, would weaken further if the regional conflict gets out of hand, leading to disruption of oil supplies and a surge in oil prices.

India also has close relations with Iran and has invested heavily in developing the strategically important Chabahar port, which would allow it access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. If the US-Iran tussle escalates, India would find itself between a rock and a hard place.

Another worry for India in the event of a wider regional conflict would be to protect the interests and safety of its expatriate population. There are varying estimates about the number of Indian expats living in West Asia – from six to eight million. The Indian labour force in West Asia is a major source of foreign exchange to India through their remittances.

Collateral damage 

The US action also inflicted yet another collateral damage – it strained the US relations with Iraq which has been fuming at the US decision to launch the attack on its soil without due consultations.

The Iraqi parliament has on Sunday voted 170-0 asking the government to remove all foreign forces from Iraq. (The vote was mostly by the Shia members of Parliament, as the Sunni and Kurd members were not present during the vote in the 328 member House). The US has about 5000 troops in Iraq, as part of the international coalition fighting the IS.

The US action has also led to the allies suspending the operations in the ongoing war on the Islamic State group. Trump has gone on record stating that he would impose sanctions on Iraq if it asks the US “in an unfriendly basis “to get out of Iraq. Trump said the US had spent billions in establishing the airbase in Bagdad and Iraq would have to compensate if it asked the US troops to leave.

(The writer is a senior journalist and commentator based in London)