Cajolery won't suffice, PM Modi should take COVID-19 head on

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is known for his penchant for unexpected disruptions, leading to fear and anxiety every time he announces plans to address the nation. But, on Thursday (March 19), when disruption was expected and even warranted, he let the country off with just a mild sermon.

When he appeared on TV to talk about the threat of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), Modi appeared dour and grim, but his prescription turned out to mild — a call for enforcing ‘janata curfew’ this Sunday and staying home as much as possible. And since he loves to add a bit of theatre to everything, Modi also exhorted Indians to dedicate five minutes to applaud the personnel fighting the virus.

It is apparent that the PM is preparing the nation for a long fight with the new virus. The call for a people’s curfew on Sunday is a rehearsal for the stricter measures that may follow. But, the PM missed two key things that are crucial in the fight — urgency and economy.

All roads lead to Rome

Till February 20, Italy had just three confirmed cases of the new virus, just like India. Italians carried on with their lives without any premonition of the gathering storm and the government took just a few preliminary steps to keep foreigners from bringing the illness into the country. Within four days, the number of confirmed cases touched 200 and then started growing exponentially.

Today, Italy is under a strict lockdown with a mortality rate and figure that has exceeded casualties in China. Its healthcare system has collapsed — hospitals are turning away patients due to the absence of beds — and the army is being requisitioned to cremate the dead.

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Italy enforced a lockdown at the beginning of March, only after thousands of people were infected. By then, the virus had settled deep into the community and had started spreading through asymptomatic patients. The door was locked only after the virus had bolted.

It is difficult to believe that the virus will behave differently in India, unless heat is a factor. So far, the classical signs of the spread of the disease are all visible in India. Like in other countries, the number of infected cases is doubling every 4-5 days, and has increased ten-fold in 19 days. We are exactly where Italy was three weeks ago.

As the PM rightly said in his speech, India is at a tipping point. We have around 200 confirmed cases of the virus in the country, four deaths and there is still hope that community transmission has not begun. If India has to avoid an Italy-like outbreak, strict measures have to be implemented now. But, the PM is willing to be lenient, at least for now.

In a week we would know if this strategy is working. If the confirmed cases increase exponentially — if they are close to 500 by March 27, it would be a sign we are getting close to an outbreak — the strategy would have to be discontinued and a strict lockdown would have to be implemented. But, by then it would be too late to mitigate the impact or flatten the curve of the disease.

It’s the economy, stupid

By the end of this week, the US government would have approved a big package for its citizens to deal with the financial impact of the outbreak. Initial reports suggest the US will give $1000 to every adult and $500 to every child this month apart from sops like more paid leave, tax cuts and flexi hours. If the virus doesn’t recede, the same cash dole will be repeated in May. The logic behind the package is simple: If you have to keep people at home, they should be compensated for it.

If the Indian government has to ensure social distancing, it will have to find a solution to the havoc it will unleash on the economy. A decline in consumption will put small and medium industries out of work, bankrupt the travel and hospitality industry and lead to massive unemployment. Unless the government takes immediate steps to address this problem, social distancing would be met with heavy resistance and distress. Though the PM announced a task force to deal with the financial impact of the virus, there is still lack of clarity on how India will keep its businesses and people closed and yet ensure there are no large-scale disruptions.

Related news: PM Modi’s speech can do little to stave off coronavirus threat

Modi’s speech, at best, can be seen as a primer on the things to come and an effort to create awareness. But, the trajectory of the virus will not give him the luxury of waiting and watching for a long time. Modi the disruptor will have to do a lot more over the next few days.