Ascent of EPS in AIADMK and BJP's wait-and-watch games

The outcome of the battle of wits between two warring Tamil Nadu leaders Edappadi Palanisamy (EPS) and O Paneerselvam (OPS) for control of AIADMK was long known. As expected Palaniswamy, who has had the upper hand for a while, has wrested control of the party and sidelined Paneerselvam. His next move would be to remove legal cobwebs and crown himself as the undisputed numero uno.

But that’s relatively an easy part. What would be of significance is to wait and watch how he manages to keep the party intact and shape it into an efficient fighting machine to take on the DMK. More importantly, how he manages to maintain a cordial relationship with the BJP, the party that is striving hard to find a firm footing in state politics, while ensuring a revival of AIADMK.

According to an African proverb, “When there is no enemy within, the enemy outside can do you no harm.” Edappadi (EPS) has had to fight it out with his own colleague Paneerselvam (OPS) for over half a decade to reach this decisive stage. But the narrative is slightly complicated. Edappadi’s rival so far was being backed by someone from outside, the BJP, which would be a bigger challenge for him in the days ahead.

In 2017, it was BJP that forced a truce between EPS and OPS. The two were engaged in shadowy battles to wrest control of AIADMK when it was most vulnerable: It was only a few months into the death of party’s supreme leader J Jayalalithaa, her close aide and associate V K Sasikala was plotting to take over the reins of the organisation and BJP was opposed to that idea.

The brewing political drama took a sharp turn when Supreme Court handed over a four-year sentence to Sasikala in a corruption case whose final verdict was in a limbo for a while. Once she was out of the way, the BJP high command summoned both EPS and OPS to Delhi and forced a truce. But the shotgun marriage has had a short shelf life.

Also read: EPS vs OPS: Tussle in AIADMK shifts to Election Commission, banks

A few weeks ago, when OPS discovered that his game was almost up, he recounted the past tales of his loyalty to Amma, who had twice anointed him as chief minister of the state. The truth is, he was chosen by her because she knew that he would keep the CM’s chair warm till her return after serving her jail term. And, this happened twice.

Following Amma’s death, OPS was automatically elevated to the post. With BJP backing him, OPS uncharacteristically rebelled against Sasikala, who aspired to be the inheritor of Jaya’s legacy. Sasikala, before her departure to the jail, replaced EPS with OPS, little realising that even he would turn against her.

When there were indications of fratricide, the BJP stepped in to ensure a truce between EPS and OPS. This was to prevent a sudden disintegration of the party. The arrangement was a bit odious: Jayalalithaa even in her death would remain the supreme leader of the party and EPS would continue as chief minister, with OPS as his deputy in the government. In the case of the party, OPS was given the primary slot as coordinator of AIADMK and Edappadi was made his deputy as Joint Coordinator.

On June 14, this arrangement collapsed with EPS calling for a meeting of the General Council of AIADMK, its supreme decision-making body, in which it was decided that the party should have only one single leader at its helm and the experiment of two leaders calling the shots should be dispensed with. EPS won hands down as almost everyone barring a few supported OPS.

Since Jayalalithaa’s death, the AIADMK has been on a downslide both politically and electorally. It was important for party cadres to rally behind someone who would keep the organisation going. EPS, as chief minister for four-and-half years, had kept the party intact, but since the nature of state politics is turnstile, he had to make way for DMK.

Also read: With EPS taking over, OPS’ political future looks bleak

The BJP is unlikely to back OPS anymore as he has served the purpose of scuttling Sasikala’s chances. But that was 2017, in 2022, BJP has no qualms about siding with Sasikala, as she could be useful in winning over the dominant Tevar caste support. Though EPS is at odds with Sasikala, BJP may still prefer him over her as leader of AIADMK, as she hasn’t managed the kind of response from the masses in her long state tours.

BJP’s ultimate objective is not to safeguard AIADMK, but to keep it going on a slow burn without sudden collapse so that the saffron party can gradually attract its cadres on to its side.

The state BJP chief, K Annamalai, a young former IPS officer, is perceived to be closer to EPS than OPS. He would rather cultivate EPS in his fight against DMK, which is proving to be a hard nut to crack. To the surprise of most political observers, the second generation dynast M K Stalin has steered his government skillfully so far. But Stalin’s real challenge would come in the later years of his regime when the BJP could strike.

Both DMK and AIADMK would like to keep the state politics as a two-party affair or rather two coalition system, as it has been so far with the two Dravidian outfits occupying pole positions. They would like to prevent the entry of a formidable third player into the battlefield in the form of BJP.

While the game so far has been straightforward for DMK, as it could oppose the BJP in state politics to keep its flock together, it is a far more nuanced play for AIADMK. EPS knows it well that one of the reasons his political rival OPS has lost out is because he was seen as being close to the BJP or rather a stooge of the national party.

Also read: Edappadi elected as AIADMK’s interim general secretary; OPS expelled

The challenge before EPS is to steer AIADMK as an effective organisation opposing DMK while making it appear that it isn’t dancing to the tunes of the party in power at the Centre.

AIADMK’s founder MGR or MG Ramachandran had famously said that the party would cease to exist after his death. He never anointed anyone in his place. Jayalalithaa snatched the mantle from MGR’s wife and remained a colossus as long as she lived. Jaya too did not name anyone as her heir apparent or groomed anyone who could replace her. The journey of the AIADMK’s leaders to the top so far has been through trial by fire. It is now the turn of Edappadi K Palanisamy to prove his mettle.