Why Sheikh Hasina's India visit is crucial for both Delhi and Dhaka

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s September 5-8 visit to India is crucial for her domestic politics as the eastern country warms up to general elections amidst Islamist upsurge. It’s also important for India’s own internal security.

Hasina’s nation has just emerged from another wave of anti-India sentiment. Thousands of people took to the streets across Bangladesh in June this year to protest derogatory comments made by BJP spokespersons Nupur Sharma and Naveen Kumar Jindal about Prophet Muhammad.

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The silence maintained by Hasina’s Awami League (AL) government over the offensive remarks on the ground that it was India’s internal matter, further enraged the Islamists.

Several arrests in India

Hasina’s AL, which has historically close ties with New Delhi, is perceived by Islamists and opposition alike to be unduly soft towards India. Its arch rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of Khaleda Zia, which is out of power since 2006, has moved closer to the radical pressure group Hefazat-e-Islam (HeL), which literally means protector of Islam, to regain its political clout.

The HeL was behind the mass protest against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Bangladesh last year.

“Among all the linkages between the HeL and other Islamist groupings in Bangladesh, the most crucial is the nexus between the HeL, the JeL (Jamaat-e-Islami) and the BNP,” a Brussels-based think-tank, the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF), said in its recent report.

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“…….. There is a collaboration between the party-based-Islamist groups JeL and BNP and the non-party-based Islamist movement HeL. As indicated above, there is some kind of ‘double membership’ as HeL members are connected either with the BNP or the JeL. Moreover, the HeL as a movement serves the political parties JeL and BNP as a recruiting pool; it also offers ideological support, and in times of election it provides these parties with access to religious, conservative constituencies,” the report published on July 29 had added.

Cascading effect in India

The cascading effect of Islamist surge in Bangladesh is already being felt in India as has been evident from the arrest of several suspected members of the banned al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) and a Bangladeshi terror outfit in West Bengal and Assam, over the past  month.

West Bengal police’s Special Task Force (STF) nabbed two AQIS members from North 24 Parganas on August 18. The Assam police arrested seven alleged Bangladeshi nationals, suspected to have links with Bangladeshi terror group Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), from Barpeta and Guwahati in the last week of July.

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The ABT (recently renamed Ansarul Islam) is believed to be an affiliate of AQIS.

What’s on the agenda?

The mutual concern of both India and Bangladesh over the activities of Islamist groups and their cross-border movements is likely to dominate the bilateral discussions during Hasina’s visit.

She is also expected to convey her concern that anti-Muslim comments and activities of India’s Hindutva groups, of which the BJP is also a part, provide fodder to Islamist outfits in Bangladesh, sources in Dhaka said. They cited how the comments of two BJP spokespersons had incited Islamists in that country.

Any such comment or action targeting Muslims in India in the run-up to the Bangladesh elections to be held in December next year will be electorally disastrous for the AL.

A non-AL government in Dhaka is the last thing New Delhi would want on its eastern front. During the non-AL regime in the past, Bangladesh had become a hub of anti-India activities and a safe sanctuary for insurgent groups active in the northeast.

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To keep the Islamists in check and to silence her political opponents, Dhaka would also like to see that Hasina does not return empty-handed from India this time.

River water sharing

Political commentators in Bangladesh opined that a deal on sharing of Teesta river water would have been politically most rewarding for her.

Reiterating the importance of the water-sharing agreement, Bangladesh Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen, during his recent visit to Guwahati, said it was “unfortunate” and “a shame” that the deal remains stuck for 11 years.

As per the draft agreement prepared ahead of then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Dhaka in 2011, Bangladesh would have the right to 37.5% of the Teesta water that flows to it through West Bengal. The agreement would have established India’s right over the remaining 42.5% of the water during the lean season between December and March.

The agreement, however, could not be inked at the last moment due to objections from West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

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Non-signing of the deal is a hot political issue in Bangladesh. AL’s opponents often cite it as another instance of “failure” of the Hasina government to bargain with India and to protect her country’s interest vis-à-vis India.

Loan from China

According to Bangladesh media reports, the country is discussing an almost $1 billion loan from China for a comprehensive management and restoration project on the Teesta.

Momen, during his Guwahati visit, however, said there was no formal proposal as yet from China.

“Teesta is an unresolved issue, so our people would naturally push the government to look into any fresh proposal, that may be the reason why the Chinese project on Teesta is so much talked about in the media,” the foreign minister added.

India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers, but there is only one water-sharing deal between them. That deal, over the sharing of Ganga water, is also expiring in 2026.

Much to Bangladesh’s disappointment, there would be no Teesta water sharing deal even during Hasina’s forthcoming India visit due to objections from West Bengal.

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Representatives of the West Bengal government conveyed the state’s inability to release more water from the “drying” Teesta river at the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) meeting held in New Delhi earlier this month. The JRC meeting between the two countries was held after a gap of 12 years.

Water sharing MoU

In the JRC meeting, India suggested that Bangladesh look beyond Teesta. Both countries are now expected to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on interim water sharing of River Kushiyara during Hasina’s visit to India.

As per the proposed MoU sent to the Modi cabinet for approval, India would provide to Bangladesh 153 cusec water from the Kushiyara. The Kushiyara, a tributary of River Barak, flows to Bangladesh’s Sylhet district from Assam. 

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Bangladesh is also pushing India to ink at least a framework agreement on water sharing of six rivers, namely Monu, Muhuri, Khowai, Gumti, Dharla and Dudhkumar.