Skymet forecasts early monsoon; may hit Kerala coast on May 26

Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 26, well before time, and is expected to be ‘normal’ up to 98% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA), says the latest report of private weather forecasting company Skymet. The normal date of onset of monsoon in India is June 1.

If the forecast turns out to be true, this would make it 4th consecutive year of normal or above-normal monsoon in India.

The onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala is mainly regulated by conditions in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Recent cyclone Asani enabled the monsoon stream to lock in over the Bay of Bengal, earlier than normal. Also, the remnant of this storm, as a depression over Peninsular India, has been instrumental in initiating the cross-equatorial flow, Skymet reported.

Also read: Aila, Amphan, Asani: Who names tropical cyclones and why?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country’s official forecasting agency, has not announced its monsoon arrival date yet, but an IMD weather bulletin hinted that it would hit Kerala sooner than the usual arrival date.

The bulletin stated: “Rainfall-laden winds will advance towards South Andaman Sea and the southeast Bay of Bengal at around May 15”.

Kerala in peninsular India is the first location for monsoon in India and the moist winds cover all parts of the country by early or mid-July.

In 2021, India received normal rainfall up to 99 percent of the LPA.