More rains likely over the next one week; monsoon may end above normal

The last week of September is expected to bring in more rains mainly because of low pressure areas formed over Kutch in Gujarat and the Bay of Bengal.

Heavy rains are expected from Friday night in east Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Kutch and Saurashtra areas of Gujarat. The last leg of the monsoon is likely to compensate for the deficient rains in August, says the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

This is the second such low-pressure depression formed in the Bay of Bengal this month. No such activity was observed till August. Another depression is expected four days later i.e. on September 28 which will again bring more rain to central India, says the latest IMD report.

A good and intermittent spell of rains in September so far has almost compensated for the monsoon deficiency of August which stood at -24 per cent. Deficiency in Central India stands at – 2 per cent since June 1; – 4 per cent in northwest India; – 9 per cent in peninsular India and – 11 per cent in east and northeast India, says the IMD report.

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About 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the long-period average is considered “normal”. Thus it can be concluded that monsoon this year will be normal, or may exceed the normal range.

Currently, low-pressure over east-central is likely to cause heavy rains in Odisha over the next 48 hours. Two more depressions – one over northeast Madhya Pradesh and south Uttar Pradesh and another over Saurashtra will bring more rains over the next few days in Odisha, north Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh followed by Gujarat, said M Mohapatra, director general of IMD.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology at Skymet Weather, said the monsoon is here to stay at least for a week more. “Patchy rain will continue over northwest India including Delhi/NCR. Monsoon may finish with normal rainfall around 99 per cent of LPA,” Palawat told The Hindustan Times.