India will have below normal monsoon, says Skymet

Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution company, has said it expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’.

Releasing its Monsoon forecast for 2023, it retained its January 2023 assessment which said that the rainfall would be sub-par.

According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, “Courtesy Triple-Dip-La Nina, southwest monsoon observed above normal/normal rainfall for the last 4 consecutive seasons. Now, La Nina has ended. The likelihood of El Nino is increasing, and its probability of becoming a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large.  El Nino’s return may presage a weaker monsoon.”

Also Read: Rainfall deficit-causing El Nino likely in coming months: why India should worry

“El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO cycle refers to the coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variations in sea-surface temperatures, rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

“Besides El Nino, there are other factors too influencing the monsoon. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino when sufficiently strong,” the statement from Skymet said.

Regarding geographical prospects, Skymet expects northern and central parts of the country to be at risk of a rain deficit.

Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the agri bowl of North India, are likely to observe less than normal rains during the second half of the season, the agency said.

Skymet Weather is India’s largest weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company.