COVID third wave is here, will peak in February 2022: Studies

India’s third coronavirus wave began in mid-December, a couple of weeks after the country reported its first Omicron case, and it is expected to peak in February 2022, according to two new studies.

A yet-to-be peer reviewed study led by the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, reported these findings by using data on the first two waves of the pandemic. The team also utilised the data of different countries that are already facing the third wave, modelling their daily cases data and predicting the impact and timeline for the third wave in India.

“The report forecasts India’s third wave of COVID-19 to start around mid-December 2021 and the cases to peak in the beginning of February 2022,” Subhra Sankar Dhar, associate professor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, wrote in the paper.

Also read: Omicron: After Bengaluru, Delhi bans Christmas, New Year gatherings

A separate study led by a joint team from the Hyderabad and Kanpur IITs tracked the country’s COVID-19 trajectory.

According to Professor M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad and Maninda Agrawal of IIT Kanpur, India’s daily caseload is expected to rise as Omicron begins to displace Delta as the dominant variant.

Meanwhile, India registered 6,317 new COVID cases and 318 deaths in the last 24 hours, as the Omicron tally reached 213, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said on Wednesday. With the addition of 318 deaths, the toll has climbed to 4,78,325.

– With inputs from IANS