BJP hopes to break Karnataka coalition

Just when the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition in Karnataka heaved a sigh of relief at thwarting the latest attempts of the BJP to poach the ruling alliance legislators comes the news that the opposition party has not given up its efforts.

Reports quoting the state’s RSS functionary and BJP organising secretary B L Santosh said that the party is waiting for the kill. According to a report in the Deccan Herald newspaper, Santosh told a meeting of party workers in Mysore that ““It is certain that the BJP government will be formed in the state. It is only a matter of time. The resignation of Congress MLA Umesh Jadhav is only a beginning. More developments are expected.”

Since May 2018, when the Congress in a swift move tied up with the JDS to form government in Karnataka, the BJP which fell short of majority by nine seats has relentlessly pursued legislators of the ruling coalition with reports alleging the party was using its money and political clout to entice them.

The last known big attempt was during the budget session in February when the BJP managed to keep away at least four ruling MLAs from attending the sitting. An audio tape that purported to show BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa enticing a ruling legislator surfaced damaging any chance that the party may have fancied.

With elections just round the corner, the national leadership of the BJP including party president Amit Shah publicly ordered the state unit to focus on that rather than try to poach MLAs. Reports quoting Santosh, in this context, is therefore surprising. The poaching ploy has been adopted by the BJP as it was successful in a similar attempt in 2008 when it fell short of the majority by three votes. The then mining baron Janardhana Reddy mounted an operation to make good the difference by poaching legislators from the other parties and circumvent the anti-defection act. Reports speculate that money power and political promise then proved key to the operation. Reddy was successful. Three Congress and four JDS legislators resigned and contested again on a BJP ticket. Five were successful, and the BJP crossed the magic mark of 113.

This time around, the BJP has 104 seats and requires at least nine more to cross the simple majority in a house of 224. And, the party despite being in power in Delhi and having grown in size across the country has been unable to break the Congress-JDS coalition so far. Congress legislator Jadhav’s resignation earlier this week is just the first. The coalition has a combined strength of 118 including two independent legislators. In all, Congress 78, JDS 38 and two independents. For the BJP to return to power in a manner similar to 2008, at least five more need to resign to bring down the majority status of the ruling alliance.

So far there are no indications that there are more to follow but nothing can be ruled out in the state’s murky politics. The other obstacle is the forthcoming elections which are just a few weeks away. But Santosh’s message to his party workers to get ready for a possible shot at power is intriguing in as much as indicating that the JDS-Congress coalition cannot yet relax and should be proactive to prevent any nasty surprise.