Trump stumbles as voters prefer democracy in US midterm polls

The writing was very much on the wall and it was only a matter of two questions: how big a beating for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, and if the Republicans are getting two or four more seats in the Senate to make the sweep complete and overwhelming.

In the end, the Republicans seem to be having their way in the House of Representatives and not by expected margins; and the Senate is yet to unfold in any firm fashion.

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The biggest win for the Democrats came in Pennsylvania, when the party clinched a Republican seat with the Lt. Governor John Fetterman getting the better of celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, backed by former President Donald Trump, who spent long hours touring the state to make sure his candidate won. President Joe Biden too made last-minute stops in the critical state, hammering away that the election was all about democracy and values.

One big takeaway

And if there is one takeaway of the midterms of 2022, it is one of a huge disappointment for the Grand Old Party and a big relief for the Democrats and the White House.

The final results have not yet been formally signed off, and it will probably take several days, but at the time of writing and as of 8:30 am Eastern Time United States on November 9, Republicans are inching their way to the 200 mark in the House with Democrats behind them at 178.

And both parties are tied in the Senate at 48 with Democrats having a critical pick up of one seat and preparing for a run-off in Georgia in December as neither of the candidates posted 50 per cent of the vote.

NBC News projects that when all votes are counted and seats tabulated, Republicans will have 220 members in the House as opposed to 215 for Democrats. The cutoff for the majority is 218.

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Several exit polls showed that the economy and inflation were top most in the minds of voters as they headed out to the polling stations on Tuesday (November 8) morning; crime and abortion were also on the scale of concern but of lower pecking order.

Trump took to his social media on election day to say that the process was a “fraud” in some states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, a claim that was dismissed by officials and independent agencies monitoring elections in the states. There were glitches in voting machines and shortage of paper ballots that apparently were quickly rectified.

Past patterns

Writing for The American Presidency Project on the Mid Terms of 2022, John Wooley argues that in 22 midterm elections between 1934 and 2018, the President’s party has averaged a loss of 28 House and 4 Senate seats with the party at the White House only gaining seats in the House thrice but gaining Senate seats six times.

“The President’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice,” Wooley points out. But midterms closer to November 8, 2022, will perhaps offer a different perspective: Republican President George W Bush in 2006 lost 30 House seats and six in the Senate; Democratic President Barack Obama lost a whopping 63 House seats and six in the Senate in 2010; and again, in 2014, lost 13 in the House and 9 in the Senate.

It will undoubtedly take some time for the dust to settle to see the impact of the 2022 midterms. But first indications are quite ominous in the context of what the Grand Old Party has been planning for quite some time. Now that the leadership in the House will be due for changes all attention will be on some powerful Committees like Appropriations.

Biden legislative agenda 

Starting with national voting and abortion laws, the Biden legislative agenda is quite incomplete in such areas as social security, finality on infrastructure spending and student loans write off. And a small majority does not go a very long way.

Even in the run-up to the elections, powerful Republicans in the House aspiring for positions in the Judiciary Committee had sent advisories to the Justice Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) on the possible enquiries that are on the anvil starting with probe of the President’s son Hunter Biden over his foreign business dealings.

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And then there are the ongoing called bipartisan investigative panels trying to get to the bottom of the scandalous rioting of January 6, 2021 and in the direct involvement of the 45th President; and in the attempts of a House panel trying to get the tax returns of Trump.

In the midst of the two parties trying to put out their respective spins on the outcome of November 2022, there is a clear message to the Grand Old Party and Trump including to those elements associated with the bogey of fraudulent elections of 2020 and outrageous conspiracy theories that have put common sense to shame.

While some of the candidates that Trump campaigned for did manage to come out on top, many of the prominent ones, especially in the swing states, did not. And November 8 did in fact bring out a star for the Republicans, the Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis who not only held his own comfortably but also showed an ability to bring with him Latino voters that even Democrats could not, winning three newly drawn up seats.

Trump in the fray

Adding to the troubled political environment of the United States is what Trump has up his sleeves for 2024. Many are convinced that he is in the fray and that he should be.

But there are Republicans who are apprehensively looking at a rerun which in their view spells the doom of the party. Perhaps the advantage for the Democrats will be if Trump runs in 2024 as it is likely to split the Grand Old Party if Governors like Ron DeSantis of Florida enter the fray.

An ally of Trump who was groomed by the mercurial former President, DeSantis, is now on the receiving end with Trump and his allies closeting to figure out nicknames for the less likeable ones in the GOP, for a start they have come up with “DeSantimonious” for the Florida Governor.

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One thinking is that DeSantis could be a running mate; but having proved his credentials, he may not be interested in playing second fiddle given what the former Vice President Mike Pence had to go through. In ways more than one, the Grand Old Party may have found its answer but it is totally different if Donald Trump has seen and understood the message of Tuesday.

(The writer was formerly a senior journalist in Washington covering North America and  the United Nations.)