37 ‘bellwether seats’ may decide Bengal poll outcome: Report

D-Day is almost here. As West Bengal gears up, along with three other states and one Union Territory, for the Assembly election results, political pundits and the general public will be closely watching the outcome.

After what most exit polls showed after the state’s two-phase election concluded on April 29, the common question is: Will Mamata Banerjee lose power after 15 years? Axis My India’s version that it did not complete the exit poll for Bengal since 70-80 per cent of people approached in the state refused to answer deepened the mystery further.

Both TMC, BJP could be tied at 144

In an interesting observation, digital platform DeKoder cited a poll of polls to suggest that both Mamata’s Trinamool Congress and the BJP could be tied at 144 seats each, four short of the magic figure of 148.

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Veteran journalist and analyst Prannoy Roy feels, citing data, that a 5.5 per cent vote swing against the TMC could overwhelmingly aid the BJP. In this connection, what has become significant is what experts consider the bellwether seats, those that have always gone to the winning party. Winning parties in Bengal have not been many. In fact, in the last 50 years or so, only the Left and the TMC have been in the winner’s seat.

Bengal's 37 bellwether seats

There are 37 seats, constituting about 13 per cent of the state’s total number of Assembly constituencies – 294 (results will be declared in 293 seats on May 4, as Falta in South 24 Parganas will go to repoll on May 21). These seats are spread across the state’s geography (like in central Kolkata, south Bengal, and Southwest Bengal) and include all forms of seats – general, Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe.

In fact, such a high number of bellwether seats is not even present in some of India’s big states, including Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar or Tamil Nadu.

According to DeKoder, 16 of these 37 seats had margins lower than 10 per cent in the 2021 assembly elections. It means that even a slight change of outcome in these could impact the overall result. Moreover, many of these constituencies have a high concentration of the Hindu population, including Kalna, Debra, Bardhaman Dakshin, Balagarh and Panskura Paschim.

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If they back the BJP, it could be close. But if they decide to remain with the TMC, the saffron mission to conquer Bengal could get delayed again, the DeKoder analysis said.

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Ultimately, it will boil down to Hindu vote consolidation, and women, Mamata's biggest vote bank. Despite the fact that the Special Intensive Revision has eliminated lakhs of voters, the beneficiaries of the chief minister’s flagship welfare schemes, such as Lakshmir Bhandar and Swasthyasathi, could still bless Mamata in a decisive way in this election.