Turncoats, debutants, veteran showdowns: Kerala's top 10 election fights

Records are meant to be broken and the Left in Kerala already broke it by winning a rare second term in 2021. The Pinarayi Vijayan-led government is hopeful of an unprecedented comeback by fielding a record number of sitting legislators. The plot is to negate the overall anti-incumbency with pro-MLA mood/sentiments in the respective constituencies.

Out of power for a decade, the Congress is desperate to take back the throne, and its candidates' list does have young, fresh faces. The BJP, so far a third, but distant player, is trying to up its vote share beyond 20 per cent and bag a few seats as well.

With many turncoats in the fray, a rarity in Kerala politics, the 2026 elections are heating up, leaving several seats fiercely unpredictable.

Here we list the Top 10 high-voltage contests (in North to South order).

1. Manjeshwaram: IUML stronghold

It has always been a bipolar contest between the Left and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala, but in Manjeswaram, the state’s north-most constituency in the bordering Kasargod, the BJP has been a strong force since the 1980s.

In fact, the last two times, the BJP’s K Surendran lost by just 89 and 745 votes, with the Muslim League (IUML) winning by razor-thin margins. In fact, the CPI held the seat from 1970 to 1982. Interestingly, the Left has been relegated to third place in the last few elections.

This time too, the stage is set for another close showdown, with IUML’s sitting MLA AKM Ashraf taking on Surendran, the former BJP Kerala chief, yet again.

■ Major candidates: AKM Ashraf (IUML); K Surendran (BJP); KR Jayananda (CPM)

◉ Tipping factor: BJP’s onslaught in IUML stronghold

★ Stat to note: The Left has not won the seat in the last 20 years.

2. Peravoor: Congress bastion

In the Left fort of Kannur district, Peravoor has been a Congress bastion and that’s exactly why the CPM has decided to throw down the gauntlet by fielding senior party leader and former Health Minister KK Shailaja (popularly called Shailaja Teacher) against KPCC chief Sunny Joseph, who is eyeing a fourth term from the constituency. The last time they fought each other, Sunny Joseph won by just 3,500 votes.

■ Major candidates: Sunny Joseph (Congress); KK Shailaja (CPI-M)

◉ Tipping factor: Shailaja's dramatic entry, and the first election for Sunny Joseph as KPCC chief

★ Stat to note: Shailaja won in Peravoor in 2006 — the only time CPM won the seat in history.

3. Perambra: Young blood

Elections are all about a wave, and the candidature of young leader Fathima Thahiliya, 32, has reinvigorated the United Democratic Front (UDF). A scintillating campaign has been launched to wrest the constituency from the CPI(M), which has held the seat since 1980. Fathima, a Youth League Leader, is taking on CPI(M) veteran and sitting MLA TP Ramakrishnan (75). The Muslim League has never won the Perambra seat.

■ Major candidates: TP Ramakrishnan (CPI-M) vs Fathima Thahiliya (Muslim League)

◉ Tipping factor: Fathima's electrifying entry into Red Fort

★ Stat to note: The Muslim League has never won the Perambra seat and the CPI(M) has won it a staggering 11 times.

4. Thrithala: Tight fight

Can Congress’ VT Balram seek revenge and wrest back the seat from the CPI(M)? That is the biggest question.

The Left’s MB Rajesh, who is the LSGD and Excise minister in the Pinarayi Vijayan Cabinet, defeated Balram, who was eyeing a hat-trick, in a close battle in the 2021 elections. Rajesh had snatched the constituency in 2021 by a narrow margin of just over 3,000 votes, making this a keenly contested battle yet again. The battle gets spicier with claims, counter-claims, and relentless cyber wars.

■ Major candidates: MB Rajesh (CPI-M); VT Balram (Congress)

◉ Tipping factor: Rajesh’s development works and UDF’s improved show in local body polls

★ Stat to note: Traditionally, a Congress stronghold

5. Palakkad: Getting hotter

With the BJP’s firebrand leader Shobha Surendran’s arrival, Palakkad has suddenly become a high-voltage constituency, where the Congress has decided to field actor/director Ramesh Pisharody. Interestingly, the CPI(M), too, has decided to field a 'non-political candidate', NMR Razaq, who runs a popular biryani chain in Palakkad.

Shobha, for the uninitiated, has been a crowd-puller and is known to increase her vote share in most constituencies she contests. Since 2011, it has been a Congress seat.

■ Major candidates: Shobha Surendran (BJP); Ramesh Pisharody (Congress); NMR Razaq (Left-backed Independent)

◉ Tipping factor: BJP's best chance to win a seat

★ Stat to note: Since 2011, Congress has been winning the seat

6. Aranmula: Shadow of Sabarimala

Aranmula is set for a tight three-cornered contest. Sitting MLA and Health Minister Veena George (CPI-M) is aiming for a third term, facing a strong challenge from Abin Varkey (Congress), a charismatic Youth Congress leader. With the BJP choosing to field veteran leader Kummanam Rajasekharan (BJP), Aranmula (in Pathanamthitta district) has turned out to be one of the state’s most closely watched battles.

Since the Sabarimala Temple is located in the same district and the recent gold-theft controversies are in the spotlight, the Sabarimala factor could influence the voting pattern. To what extent it does remains to be seen, though. Yet, it is primarily seen as a battle between Veena and Abin (who is making his electoral debut).

■ Major candidates: Veena George (CPM); Abin Varkey (Cong); Kummanam Rajasekharan (BJP)

◉ Tipping factor: Abin's entry, Kummanam’s candidacy and Sabarimala factor

★ Stat to note: Traditionally, a Congress stronghold

7. Kottarakkara: Turncoat territory

An intriguing battle, involving turncoats, is brewing in this constituency in Kollam district. Sitting MLA and Finance Minister KN Balagopal is taking on Aisha Potty, a three-time MLA who defected from the CPI(M) and has now became a Congress candidate. Completing the contest is R Reshmi, who was the Congress candidate in the 2021 elections, but has now switched sides to become the BJP candidate.

For the uninitiated, such defections were rare in Kerala politics, though the trend is flipping of late.

■ Major candidates: Balagopal (CPM); Aisha Potty (Cong); Reshmi (BJP)

◉ Tipping factor: Balagopal's nurturing of the constituency, Potty's rebellion, and Reshmi's BJP entry

★ Stat to note: CPI(M)'s smooth run of late in UDF stronghold

8. Pathanapuram: Shaky fortress

Pathanapuram is witnessing what could be the toughest contest in KB Ganesh Kumar’s career, despite his uninterrupted winning run since 2006. The KC(B)/LDF leader, also the Transport Minister, faces Jyothikumar Chamakkala (Congress), who, after losing the last election, has remained active in the constituency and worked closely with grassroots workers over the past five years, making this a more competitive fight than before.

Ganesh's marital controversies and his clash with local Nair Service Society (NSS) leaders are major talking points in the constituency.

■ Major candidates: KB Ganesh Kumar (KC-B/LDF); Jyotikumar Chamakkala (Congress)

◉ Tipping factor: Ganesh's impressive track record as MLA and Congress's high-octane, 'personal' campaign

★ Stat to note: If Ganesh wins again, it will be a record sixth term on the trot

9. Vattiyoorkavu: Local clash

Another high-profile triangular contest. Sitting MLA VK Prasanth (CPI-M) seeks to retain the seat, but faces a strong challenge from senior Congress leader K Muraleedharan, whose re-entry to the constituency raises the stakes considerably. Adding to the contest is former DGP R Sreelekha (BJP). The saffron party has listed Vattiyoorkkavu as one of its high-priority constituencies. K Muraleedharan won twice (2011 and 2016) before Prashanth's smooth takeover.

■ Major candidates: VK Prasanth (CPM); K Muraleedharan (Cong); R Sreelekha (BJP)

◉ Tipping factor: Muraleedharan’s re-entry; VK Prasanth’s mass appeal.

★ Stat to note: Prasanth has been increasing his votes.

10. Nemom: Saffron surge

Probably the closest election battle of 2026. Sitting MLA and Education Minister V Sivankutty (CPI-M) seeks to defend his seat against KS Sabarinadhan (Congress), a former MLA with strong local connections. The contest gains national attention with the entry of Rajeev Chandrasekhar (BJP), making it a high-stakes three-way fight in Thiruvananthapuram, the state’s capital.

Nemom is also where the BJP won its only Assembly election (2016) till date in Kerala. The BJP also got the highest number of votes, overtaking both the UDF and the LDF, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections (Rajeev Chandrasekhar was ahead of Tharoor by 20,000+ votes) and in the recent local body polls, if extrapolated.

■ Major candidates: V Sivankutty (CPI-M); KS Sabarinadhan (Congress); Rajeev Chandrasekhar (BJP)

◉ Tipping factor: BJP rise in the Capital region; Sivankutty's strong support base; Sabarinadhan’s candidacy

★ Stat to note: Segment where the BJP won its first Assembly seat

What is brewing in Kazhakoottam?

The BJP has been gung-ho about Nemom, Manjeshwaram, Palakkad and Vattiyoorkavu, but on the ground, Kazhakoottam in Thiruvananthapuram district is emerging as one of its top constituencies, where V Muraleedharan, a former Union minister, is in the fray.

The CPI(M)’s Kadakampally Surendran is seeking a third straight term, and the old warhorse Sarat Chandra Prasad is the Congress candidate. It is also a seat where the BJP came second in the last two elections. In this high-voltage fight, the fallout from the Sabarimala gold heist controversy, which the BJP has linked to Kadakampally Surendran’s tenure as Devaswom Minister, has emerged as a campaign issue. But CPI(M) believes its sitting MLA Kadakampally (in 2021, he defeated BJP's Shobha Surendran by more than 20,000 votes), will score a hat-trick at Kazhakoottam. The battle is hotting up, ground reports suggest.