SIR, infiltration, women’s safety: 10 factors set to dominate Bengal polls

With the election season in West Bengal now officially underway, several issues are expected to dominate the campaign rhetoric of political parties in the weeks ahead.

1. SIR/Citizenship anxiety

The publication of post-SIR electoral rolls has triggered one of the most significant pre-election developments in the state in recent years, as the revision pruned nearly 63.66 lakh names from the voter list ahead of the assembly polls.

With the electorate shrinking from 7.66 crore to just over 7.04 crore, the exercise has dramatically altered the state’s electoral landscape and introduced a new element of political uncertainty just as the campaign season begins.

Apart from the deletions, around 60.06 lakh additional names are under adjudication, indicating that the voter list remains in flux even as political parties gear up for the polls.

The churn has forced parties to reassess their booth-level arithmetic, particularly in districts where large numbers of deletions have been reported.

The deletions are also concentrated in several border districts and urban belts – areas that are electorally sensitive and politically contested.

2. Bengali sub-nationalism

Before the SIR exercise acquired political centre stage in Bengal, the TMC aggressively campaigned, both on the streets as well as in judicial corridors and parliament, against alleged coordinated attacks on Bengali-speaking migrants across BJP-ruled states.

The tried and tested ‘bohiragoto’ (outsider) plank against the BJP has worked well in the past few elections for the TMC. The issue of Bengali sub-nationalism in the context of migrant persecution is an extension of its previous attempts to isolate the saffron brigade from Bengal’s political landscape and carve a niche for itself with claims of being the vanguard of Bengali “asmita”.

In July last year, CM Mamata Banerjee led a major rally in Kolkata against what the TMC described as the BJP's “assault on Bengali identity”. She has remained consistent in lashing out at the BJP following instances of alleged torture, detention and deportation of Bengal’s migrants across the country on suspicion of being Bangladeshis.

The TMC spearheaded legal battles at Calcutta High Court and Supreme Court against alleged deportations of Bengali-speaking Indians and found limited success in bringing back those deportees. The repatriation of Sunali Bibi, one of the six deported residents, and her minor son is a case in point.

3. Infiltration

When PM Narendra Modi, from a rally in the Muslim-majority bordering district of Malda on January 17, made infiltration the central plank of his offensive against the TMC government – alleging that large-scale illegal migration altered demography, fuelled riots, and thrived due to the ruling party's “patronage and syndicate raj” – he left little doubt that the BJP would run its election campaigns with the “ghoospetiya” issue in forefront.

Amid a charged pre-poll political atmosphere, fuelled vigorously by the controversial SIR “roll-cleansing” exercise, the saffron camp has left no stone unturned to justify the process in the name of identifying “Bangladeshis and Rohingyas” on this side of the border.

During one of his recent visits, Union home minister Amit Shah sharpened the BJP’s pitch on infiltration, declaring that while “only names of infiltrators are being deleted now” from voter rolls, they would be “pushed out” once the party comes to power in the state. He accused Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of abetting infiltration for poll benefits.

The TMC, on the other hand, has called the process a politically motivated exercise devoid of truth and reality, which is aimed at targeting the Muslim citizens of the state.

4. Matua factor

The Matuas, a Scheduled Caste Hindu refugee community with decisive influence in around 50 assembly seats across Bengal, have emerged as a key electoral bloc. In the 2021 assembly elections, a majority of these seats went to the BJP, helping the party secure 77 seats, with the support base largely holding during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as well.

The large-scale deletion of names during the SIR unsettled voters in Matua-majority belts, reopening anxieties over identity, documentation and electoral inclusion among the community members who migrated from present-day Bangladesh over decades.

5. Corruption

Allegations of corruption by the Opposition parties against the TMC dispensation continue to dominate Bengal’s political landscape, with the school jobs scam taking centre stage.

The Supreme Court, in April 2025, cancelled appointments of more than 25,000 candidates as teachers and staff recruited by the state School Service Commission due to irregularities found in the recruitment process.

6. Religion and polarisation

As the campaign for the elections gathers momentum, political observers expect the contest to witness heightened communal rhetoric and identity-driven mobilisation, with religion emerging as a key undercurrent in the electoral narrative.

West Bengal, where electoral discourse historically remained relatively insulated from overt communal politics, has gradually been drawn into sharper ideological contestation between the TMC and the BJP.

Both parties have accused each other of encouraging polarisation. The BJP alleges minority appeasement by the ruling party, while the TMC counters by accusing its rival of attempting to divide communities along religious lines.

Against this backdrop, the upcoming elections could witness a more pronounced communal divide in certain regions, particularly in districts with mixed demographic compositions.

Political analysts say the interplay between religious polarisation, the SIR-related voter churn and the anxieties of communities such as the Matuas could together shape the tone and trajectory of the campaign in the months ahead.

7. Law and order/women’s safety

The issue of law and order, particularly those related to women’s safety, has emerged as a key political flashpoint in Bengal, drawing sharp reactions from both the ruling establishment and the opposition.

Official data cited by the government indicates that several initiatives, including dedicated women police stations, increased night patrolling and helplines, have been introduced to improve safety. However, incidents like the rape-murder of the medical intern at RG Kar hospital and the alleged gang rape of a student inside the South Calcutta Law College premises have led opposition parties to argue that incidents of assault, harassment and trafficking continue to spike in the state.

8. Urban anger / anti-incumbency

When Rimjhim Sinha, a Kolkata-based sociology researcher, called for ‘Reclaim the Night’ movement on social media following the rape and murder of the medical intern at RG Kar Hospital in 2024, little did she know that her message would spread like wildfire, igniting the simmering discontent among the cross section of urban women, youth and even senior citizens against the state’s ruling establishments.

What followed in urban and semi-urban pockets of Bengal were spontaneous on-street protests which lasted for months. The movement demanded justice for the victim, workplace safety reforms and rights of women to occupy public spaces at night. The outpour of anger, directed mainly against TMC's stranglehold on Bengal’s state-run institutions, was unprecedented.

Though the state’s main political Opposition was kept outside the protest domain by agitators, TMC faced challenging times in containing the social resistance from taking political form.

With setbacks in corruption cases, a crisis persisting in the state’s job sector, failure to attract big-ticket investments and plug brain drain, Banerjee faces her biggest anti-incumbency challenge.

9. Industry and employment

The Opposition BJP alleged “flight of industry” and branded the state an “industrial graveyard”. Party leaders claim that more than 6,000 companies have shifted out of Bengal during the past 14 years and argue that only around 3 per cent of investment proposals from the state business summit have materialised, turning the state into a “labour-exporting economy”.

The TMC counters this claim by projecting a “Bengal model” centred on MSME expansion, infrastructure push and relatively lower unemployment. It cites an unemployment rate of about 3.6 per cent, below the national average, and points to a projected GSDP growth of around 12 per cent, higher than the national average, as evidence of strong economic momentum.

The crisis in the jute belt districts like Hooghly, Howrah and North 24 Parganas, where raw material shortages resulted in the closure of mills and production curtailment, job losses became a key factor.

10. Social welfare schemes

A slew of social welfare schemes by the TMC government could play a pivotal role in the elections. The initiatives aiming at unemployed youth, women, farmers, students, workers and marginalised communities brought rich dividends in past elections and may influence the outcome of the upcoming polls Several of these schemes involve direct cash transfers and benefits delivered at the grassroots level.

(With agency inputs)