Phase 5 will test BJP's hold on states it swept in 2014

As polling for the fifth phase of Lok Sabha elections begins on May 6 in 51 constituencies spread over seven states BJP would be closely monitoring the losses it may suffer.

In 2014 BJP had won 40 out of 51 seats scoring a specular strike rate. In the four Hindi heartland states — Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar — BJP had won all the seats that are going to polls in the 5th round.

The states going for polls in the fifth phase includes Bihar, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

Uttar Pradesh

In Uttar Pradesh, 14 constituencies including two Congress bastions, Rae Bareli and Amethi, are scheduled for polling on May 6. The remaining 12 seats were won by the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. This time, however, the saffron party may find it difficult to repeat the feat due to tie up between SP and BSP.

The mahagathbandhan may give the BJP a run for its money in seven of the 12 seats it won in the state. If the SP-BSP vote shares were added as per 2014 data, BJP falls short of numbers in Bahraich, Mohanlalganj, Sitapur, Kaisarganj, Kaushambhi, Banda and Dhaurahra Lok Sabha seats.

The BJP has fielded Smriti Irani from Amethi for the second time against Congress chief Rahul Gandhi. In 2014, Smriti gave a tough fight to Rahul and managed to reduce his winning margin from 3.7 lakh votes in 2009 to 1 lakh vote in 2014. In neighbouring Rae Bareli Congress leader Sonia Gandhi is seeking a re election.

Jammu and Kashmir

Polling in the two seats, Anantnag and Ladakh, will be held on May 6. With this, polling for Lok Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir will come be over. The voter turnout, however, has been low in the terror-hit Jammu and Kashmir.

In Anantnag polling is being held in three phases. The voter turnout in the first two phases was only12.86% and 9.76% respectively. The constituency is spread across four districts – Anantnag, Kulgam, Shopian and Pulwama, where 40 CRPF jawans were killed in February. The parliamentary constituency has been a battleground of Mehbooba Mufti, who won the seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls by a margin of 65,000 votes. In the ongoing Lok Sabha polls, Mufti is standing from this constituency again.

Jharkhand

Four constituencies in Jharkhand including the capital, Ranchi, is polling ton Monday. The state has for long been a bastion of the BJP. This time, however, regional parties such as the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), and the RJD have formed an alliance with the Congress, posing a tough competition to the ruling party. Ranchi is a bellwether constituency which means as per trends the party which wins this seat eventually goes to form the government at the Centre.  There is no scientific basis to this but historical data shows that bellwether constituencies usually act as a marker for the final results.

In Ranchi, former BJP member Ram Tahal Choudhary, who has won the seat five-times, is contesting as an independent candidate. In 2014, Choudhary won by a margin of 1.9 lakh votes after defeating Congress’ Subodh Kant Sahay. Choudhary is likely to cut into the votes of BJP’s Sanjay Seth. Union minister Jayant Sinha will be contesting from Hazaribagh.

A simple vote share calculation based on the grand alliance suggests that the ruling party may face the heat in six constituencies including Godda, Kodarma, Chatra, Lohardaga, Giridih and Rajmahal.

Bihar

Polling in 19 of the 40 seats in Bihar are over and another five constituencies are polling on Monday.  In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had won all these five seats — Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Muzaffarpur, Saran and Hajipur.

In Bihar the Congress has formed alliances with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha Secular (HAM Secular) and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). They are up against the BJP and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U).

In Muzaffarpur VIP candidate Raj Bhushan Choudhary is challenging sitting BJP MP Ajay Nishad who claims to represent the interests of Mallah (boatman) community, which is the dominant caste in the constituency.

Choudhary may wrest the Mallah votes from the NDA coalition as well as damage Nishad’s image as the symbol of Mallah empowerment in Bihar, which he got because of his father’s contribution.

Madhya Pradesh

BJP is trying to retain all the seven seats— Betul, Damoh, Hoshangabad, Khajuraho, Rewa, Satna and Tikamgarh that are going for polls on Monday.  The state was swept by the party in 2014 elections.

Congress managed to wrest the state from BJP in the November 2018 Assembly elections. Since the parliamentary elections are being held within six months, Congress hopes to gain substantially.

Rajasthan

Twelve constituencies in Rajasthan are going to polls in the fifth phase. In the previous phase on April 29, 13 of the 25 parliamentary seats had already polled. In 2014, all the seats were won by BJP.

BJP and the Congress, are head-to-head in Rajasthan. Congress party began well but seems to be losing momentum due to internal strifes.

West Bengal

Seven constituencies including Howrah and Hugli of West Bengal will go for polling in the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha polls 2019. The Trinamool Congress had won all the seats in 2014 elections.

With this phase, polling in 25 of the 42 parliamentary seats in the state will be completed. In some of the constituencies the elections are four-cornered as major parties in the states are polling without an alliance.