In Tamil Nadu, BJP is a champion of mahagathbandhan

An alliance for the welfare of the people, said PMK founder S Ramadoss on February 19, using the same descriptors deployed by an alliance of parties that contested the 2016 assembly elections in Tamil Nadu in opposition to the AIADMK and DMK-led alliances.

The same evening, Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, who had stood by Ramadoss’ side in the morning in his capacity as the coordinator of the AIADMK, described it succinctly after sealing the pre-poll deal with the BJP: “Mega.”

Mega it is, then. So mega and so unwieldy that the BJP’s national president called off a scheduled visit to the state to reportedly inaugurate the alliance. This was reportedly due to the fact that his representatives could not conclude seat-sharing details in time with the PMK and the DMDK.

The PMK would then go on to successfully talk to the AIADMK. The BJP’s conversation with the DMDK was less successful, however: Union Railway Minister Piyush Goyal had to return from the DMDK founder’s house after wishing Vijayakanth the best of health. Premalatha, recently elevated as the party’s treasurer ahead of her husband’s visit to the United States for medical treatment, did not emerge for Goyal’s interaction with journalists after the meeting and sent her brother L K Sudhish – DMDK’s deputy general secretary – instead.

Over the course of February 19, a pattern seemed to emerge – unlike the mountain and Muhammad, the BJP was willing to come to the AIADMK. BJP leader Goyal said that his party was accepting the leadership of Edappadi K Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam. The BJP even seemed to put this thought into action by agreeing to contest two fewer seats than the PMK; there seemed to be a tacit admission of the party’s weaknesses in the state.

The AIADMK-led alliance’s aggressive courting of the PMK showed how weak the alliance would have been in northern Tamil Nadu without Ramadoss’ party. With the PMK on board, the “mega” NDA alliance reaches out to all the dominant castes – and by extension, all the regions – of the state: while the AIADMK brings the thevars in the south and gounders in the West to the table; the PMK brings vanniyars in the North and the BJP, the nadars of the Tirunelveli region. The Puthiya Tamilagam party of K Krishnasamy has its base among one Dalit caste group.

The BJP will also be hoping that the Hindu Munnani and the Hindu Makkal Katchi, which have been cultivating extensive networks across the dominant castes and Dalits of the state, will be able to convert its influence into votes.

However, the NDA could also end up being mega only on paper. Each party in the alliance brings in a caveat. The AIADMK finds itself severely depleted after the death of Jayalalithaa; most reports suggest that its support base has eroded in the South. The PMK’s vote share has not increased despite its rising ambitions – as a consequence, its contested vote share has been dropping over time. The DMDK’s vote share took a nosedive in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections; the poor health of its founder Vijayakanth may not help matters this time, either. The BJP has been publicly courting Krishnasamy and he has reciprocated in equal measure, but there is nothing yet to show that he wields a significant influence among Dalits.

Tuesday, though, was a good day for the AIADMK. Apart from the BJP, it got the PMK – which has been critical of the state government – to break bread with it. Both the PMK and the BJP also committed to supporting the AIADMK’s candidates when bye-elections to 21 vacant assembly seats are held. The results of these elections will decide the fate of the Palaniswami-Panneerselvam government.

For the BJP, the day which began with the confusion over the cancellation of its national president’s trip, ended with confusion over the DMDK’s participation in the alliance.