Narendra Modi the biggest plus for the BJP, and for the Opposition

India has just come out of a week of war bugles being sounded. The message has gone around that she will act if attacked by terrorists. She will hit back and pursue extremists into Pakistan’s territory – a strategy only the US and, probably Israel, has gotten away with so far. And, the world will back India’s belligerent initiatives.

The man who has apparently led India to a bold new age is Narendra Modi. Balakot appears to have rolled back an Opposition build-up coming out of the recent elections to State Assemblies in which the BJP had lost much ground.

Not campaigning for change

The BJP is not campaigning for change this time. It says the going has been good in the past four years and Modi can be trusted with another term. “Yeh bandha sahi hai [this is the right guy],” goes a hip-hop campaign song. Reforms have been ushered in, there has been a crackdown on black money, farmers have been helped, and the nation is in safe hands. India is set for a bright future, under Narendra Modi.

Modi and the BJP seem to have a winning narrative. Their campaign got off to a headstart with Modi seizing the initiative and criss-crossing battleground states in the past one month and more.

The 2019 Lok Sabha election is for Narendra Modi to win, or lose. And, lose he may, just as his predecessor Vajapayee did in 2004.

The Opposition doesn’t have a grand narrative now. They don’t have a leader who can match Narendra Modi. Rahul Gandhi is trying to work up some fire through his speeches. He brought in his sister Priyanka Gandhi to give the Congress some adrenaline in the key state of Uttar Pradesh but since then Priyanka seems to have been completely overshadowed by events that seem to have favoured the BJP. And Rahul remains trapped in an image thrust upon him by the BJP and its social media cohorts.

There is no one talking point that seems to be going for the Congress and the rest of the Opposition. But little has to be said for them to win.

The Opposition’s compelling narrative is not talk but numbers. By striking tactical alliances and ensuring that there is only one candidate to take on the BJP and its allies, the Opposition may well win.

For all its bravado, the BJP and its allies just do not command the majority of votes. The poor who are still the overwhelming majority of India’s voters, the marginalized, the minorities, and the southern states are not fully with the BJP, nor will they be in the foreseeable future.

Tired old party

Sonia Gandhi, as potential Prime Minister, was always a non-starter in 2004. If President Abdul Kalam hadn’t pulled the rug from under her feet, someone else may have. The Congress looked like a tired old party at that time. It offered no new message, no narrative that struck a chord. The Congressman’s anachronistic support to Sonia Gandhi was ridiculed by the middle classes.

Pitted against her was the formidable Vajpayee – the orator par excellence who had commanded the respect of even Nehru. A seasoned politician and a leader whose appeal seemed to transcend political divides, he had just led India to what appeared to be a possible shining future. There was much positive talk then too — digitalization, new roads, Kargil victory five years ago, and a middle class support that stretched across national borders.

But the Congress struck up local alliances that worked. It went out of the way to accommodate allies though the SP and the BSP remained out of its orbit, just as now. The desire to form alliances showed that the Congress had accepted the reality that it would have to be a coalition government if it wanted to win in the polls. One sees a similar keenness to accommodate allies in the Congress now.

What the Congress and the rest of the opposition have is that Modi has been so polarizing that they all are keen that he and the BJP shouldn’t come back. Barring a few like KCR, most opposition leaders are seething in their opposition to Modi.

The 2019 elections are for Modi to lose. With his brazenness and take-no-prisoners approach, he may well lose the election by having his enemies gang up against him.