Delhi may have 15 lakh undetected cases of COVID-19: ICMR
A government projection on how quickly the number of COVID-19 cases in India can increase revealed that around 15 lakh people in Delhi may show symptoms of infection by the virus in the near future in the “most optimistic scenario”.
A government projection on how quickly the number of COVID-19 cases in India can increase revealed that around 15 lakh people in Delhi may show symptoms of infection by the virus in the near future in the “most optimistic scenario”.
A report compiled by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) noted that in the most optimistic scenario, around 15 lakh symptomatic cases would be detected in Delhi, and approximately 5 lakh in Mumbai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru each. This would peak over a period of 200 days, beginning from February, according to the report dated February 27.
On the other hand, in the most pessimistic scenario, around 1 crore people would show symptoms of coronavirus in Delhi, and 40 lakh people in Mumbai. This will peak over 40 days, starting from February.
Balram Bhargav, Director General of ICMR was quoted by NDTV as saying, “You have to remember this is purely a mathematical model done about a month back.”
A major portion of the report focuses on the fact that the airports in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru serve to be the country’s major international travel hubs, and that the virus began spreading mainly through passengers who had travelled to other countries.
The government said in the report that it has screened more than 1.5 lakh people at airports.
However, the report also points out flaws in the process of thermal screening of passengers at airports. The report, quoting a study, said 46% people would not be detected by thermal screening at airports.
Another study quoted by the report mentioned that thermal screening at airports may miss more than half of the infected travellers due to the incubation period of the virus in the body, which may result in a passenger being asymptomatic at that moment. The passenger being unaware of exposure to the virus is another reason behind non-detection of infected people.
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Another complication to the current situation is the fact that the government began thermal screening at airports in March and not in February, when the outbreak began.
It hinted at the conclusion that these airports could have been the main reason behind the spread of the virus in the country.
The report also highlighted the fact that “no fast-test (government-approved) kits were available to identify asymptomatic cases at airports.”
It pointed out that testing every single sample in a laboratory would be “impractical” due to the increase in the number of travellers during that time.
The ban on domestic flights came after the release of this report which indicated that those who travelled by air were the ones mainly infected by the virus.
