BMC exit polls predict clear win for BJP-Shinde Sena alliance
Most surveys project the ruling combine crossing 130 wards in Mumbai’s 227-member BMC, with the reunited Thackerays trailing and Congress expected to post a modest showing
Exit polls have predicted a decisive victory for the BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in the high-stakes elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), with most surveys forecasting that the ruling alliance will cross the majority mark comfortably in Asia’s richest civic body.
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According to multiple exit polls, the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) combine is expected to secure more than 130 of the 227 wards in the BMC. Axis My India has projected 131–151 seats for the alliance, while JVC has predicted 138 wards. Sakal Poll forecast 119 seats for the BJP–Sena combine, and other pollsters such as JDS, Janmat Polls and DV Research have estimated the alliance’s tally to range between 107 and 154 wards.
Thackerays trail in polls
Overall, an average of six exit polls places the BJP–Shinde Sena combine at around 132 wards, suggesting a clear mandate. The Congress and its allies are expected to secure around 20 wards.
The reunited Thackeray cousins – Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena – are projected to finish a distant second. Axis My India has given the UBT–MNS alliance 58–68 seats, while JVC has forecast 59 wards. Sakal Poll has projected 75 seats for the alliance. The Congress, which entered into a last-minute tie-up with the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, is expected to win between 12 and 23 seats.
Exit polls suggest that while the Thackeray-led alliance may consolidate Maratha and Muslim votes, the BJP has secured strong support among north and south Indian voters, as well as women and younger voters.
Old stronghold, new battle
The BMC, with an annual budget of over Rs 74,400 crore, has traditionally been the stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena, which controlled the civic body from 1985 to 2022, barring a brief period between 1992 and 1996.
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The last BMC elections were held in 2017, when the united Sena retained control. However, the 2022 split in the party and shifting political equations appear to have significantly altered the balance of power.
Elections were also held across 28 other municipal corporations in Maharashtra, all of which had been pending since 2017, underscoring the broader significance of the civic polls beyond Mumbai.