How Congress lost former forte Saurashtra inch by inch, to BJP's joy

The Saurashtra region, which accounts for seven of Gujarat’s 26 Lok Sabha seats, is set to be the state’s main electoral battleground in the upcoming polls.

While the BJP is looking to repeat its 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha performance – where it won all the 26 seats – the Congress is trying to win back its influence in a region which was once its stronghold.

Kutch, Morbi, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Dwarka, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Porbandar districts form Saurashtra – a region flanked by the Arabian Sea on one side and the Gir National Park and Wildlife Sanctuary on the other.

OBC vote bank

With Kutch, Rajkot, Junagadh, Porbandar, Bhavnagar, Amreli, and Jamnagar being the seven Lok Sabha seats, the coastal belt is mostly dominated by Patidars, Koli, Ahir and Darbar (Kshatriyas) – the OBC vote bank that has traditionally supported Congress barring the Patels, who have been loyal to the BJP all.

The Congress has been losing its clout in the region since 2017, mostly due to infighting and desertions. Since 2019, the party has lost nine MLAs to the BJP in the region. Many leaders from the Patidar, Koli and Ahir castes, like Kunwarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavaliya (Koli), Brijesh Merja (Patidar), and Jawaharbhai Chavda (Ahir), have left the party for the BJP.

Trend from 2019

Noticeably, the defections had begun in 2019 in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The first to leave the Congress was Chavda, a four-time MLA from the party. He joined the BJP to win a cabinet seat following a reshuffle in the government.

Ahir leader Chavda, like his father, the late Congress leader Pethalji, is known for his sway over rural voters. The BJP entrusted him with the task of regaining hold over the OBC-dominated region.

Soon after Chavda, five-time MLA Bavaliya, too left the Congress to join the BJP. Within a few days, nearly 300 Congress members from the Saurashtra region crossed over to the rival party.

Last month, the Congress suspended five elected members of two taluka panchayats in Kutch as a disciplinary measure for hobnobbing with BJP leaders. Two days later, Arjun Khatriya, a prominent Darbar leader, who had been with the Congress for the past 25 years and was previously the leader of the party in Rajkot district panchayat, joined the BJP with his followers.

How BJP encashed on Congress’ loss

The sudden spate of defections and infighting within the Congress helped the BJP win six taluka panchayat seats for the first time in the 2020 local body polls. After the drubbing in the local polls, Congress lost its popular Patidar face, Hardik Patel, who later joined the BJP and began to talk openly against the Congress.

Another major loss for the Congress was its failure – despite repeated meetings – to induct Naresh Patel, an industrialist and leader of the Karda Patel community. The head of Kodhaldham, a religious place for Karda Patels near Rajkot, Patel holds influence on all the Patidar-dominated seats of Saurashtra. Even though the Congress made several attempts to rope him in ahead of the 2022 Assembly elections, he showed no interest.

“As the Congress became weaker, the BJP grew from strength to strength with each election in the region – the local polls in 2020, civic polls in 2021 and then assembly polls in 2022. The OBC vote bank that used to be a Congress stronghold kept going to the BJP with each OBC leader defecting to the saffron party,” Manishi Jani, an Ahmedabad-based political analyst, told The Federal.

“For the Congress now, this Lok Sabha polls will be about regaining its lost territory, not only in Saurashtra but in the state as a whole. The Congress is going through one of its worst phases in Gujarat since the regime of Madhav Singh Solanki, when the party was last in power,” he added.

Anti-incumbency

Noticeably, post 2016, an agrarian crisis and bouts of droughts in the Saurashtra region, which primarily depends on agriculture, built anger against the ruling party. The BJP, which was already reeling from the aftermath of the Patidar agitation of 2015, took a massive hit in the region in the 2017 Assembly polls. The impact of the Patel agitation combined with the agrarian distress helped the Congress sweep most of the seats in Saurashtra.

However, post the 2017 polls, the BJP set out to rectify the errors and re-establish its influence in the region.

In 2021, the state government waived electricity bills of over ₹600 crore to woo back the farmers. In 2022, around 100 Narmada sub-canals in Saurashtra that were defunct for years were made operational, providing drought-prone regions with irrigation water. As a result, the BJP won a majority of the seats in the Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC) polls in 2022 and 2023.

Not much worry for BJP

Hemaant Shah, a former professor and political analyst in Gujarat, says there are no traces of any “anti-BJP wave” in Saurashtra. Nor are there major issues that people are talking about in the region.

“In the rural pockets of Saurashtra, the Congress may still have some hold," he added. "But it remains to be seen if the anti-BJP votes fall in the Congress’s bag."

"The party, which has lost a considerable number of ground workers is going to have a tough time trying to regain its hold in the region," Shah noted. "Besides, it has vacated one seat in the region – Bhavnagar – to AAP. Bhavnagar has been the stronghold and hometown of party chief Shaktisinh Gohil. "

Balancing caste is crucial

Noticeably, the Saurashtra region has been pivotal for the BJP’s rise in Gujarat. Prime Minister Narendra Modi contested and won his first election from Rajkot II Assembly constituency in a by-poll in 2002, months after he replaced an ailing Keshubhai Patel as chief minister.

Political experts say the BJP, which was able to consolidate its Hindu votes following the 2002 riots and gained unprecedented dominance in urban Central Gujarat, began losing ground in Saurashtra region, which was much less impacted by the riots.

In the Assembly polls following the 2002 riots, the BJP gained strength across Gujarat but its tally in Saurashtra went down by 11 seats (out of a total of 48 Assembly seats in the region) compared to the 1995 assembly polls. The Congress began to gain ground in the region henceforth, winning 10 seats in 2002.

'Saurashtra is different'

“Saurashtra is different from the rest of the state due to its caste dynamics," observed Jani. "The region is dominated by different castes grouped under the OBCs such as Patidar, Darbar, Koli, Mer and Vagher. Although they fall under the OBC umbrella, in social hierarchy they don’t enjoy equal social status. For instance, Darbars (Kshatriya) considers themselves higher in social hierarchy over Mers and Vaghers, who are treated as pastoral communities.

"These communities often don’t see eye to eye. Such a relationship has prevented a cross-caste Hindu consolidation that the BJP managed to achieve in the rest of the state. Even after the 2002 riots, the BJP couldn’t manage to bring all the castes under the Hindutva umbrella in Saurashtra that was comparatively less affected by the violence."

“Unlike other regions, to win an election in Saurashtra, a political party has to strike a balance between all the different caste groups in the region. In some seats, many a time both BJP and Congress have ended up fielding candidates of the same caste group that is dominant in the area. For instance, in Porbandar, the battle has primarily been between Mer community candidates,” he added.