Is AIADMK split imminent? Knives are out for Edappadi K Palaniswami

Tamil Nadu's political landscape is rapidly changing with Vijay's unexpected ascent to power. The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has now formed the government, but its win has ruffled some feathers in other parties as well. It is now speculated that the AIADMK is heading for a split, as a faction of the party has requested Edappadi Palaniswami to step down as party chief.

CV Shanmugam faction rebels

According to reports, a set of AIADMK MLAs and former ministers aligned with senior leader CV Shanmugam have demanded chief Edappadi K Palaniswami step down from his leadership. This has come after consecutive electoral defeats for the party since 2021. However, it is said that EPS is refusing to budge.

"There is a clear split within the party. Many MLAs want a change in leadership. If Palaniswami continues as a leader, there is a possibility of some MLAs extending support to the TVK," said former AIADMK leader K C Palanisamy.

He further said that Palaniswami should "voluntarily step down" from the party's top post so that it can reunite and face the next election.

Political analyst Sathyalaya Ramakrishnan said misunderstandings among the AIADMK leaders should be resolved through dialogue. He said, "I feel till now the party is united since all the AIADMK MLAs were sitting together in the Assembly. The senior leaders of the AIADMK must ensure that there is no split in the party."

Cracks begin to show

The cracks were visible even at the oath-taking ceremony for the 17th Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly on May 11, where the AIADMK's newly elected MLAs arrived not as one but as two distinct groups. EPS lead one set of members, while former ministers S P Velumani and C Vijayabaskar headed another. However, Shanmugam was conspicuously absent, which is a stark departure from the party's tradition of entering the House together.

A party at war with itself

The AIADMK has never quite recovered from losing power in 2021. Four elections later — each worse than the last — the knives are finally out for Edappadi K Palaniswami. From 75 seats in 2021, the party collapsed to just 47 in this month's assembly polls. Before that, it managed a solitary Lok Sabha seat in 2019. In 2024 Lok Sabha election, the party shockingly won none at all. For a party that governed Tamil Nadu for a decade, the decline has been swift and humiliating.

Vijay's win changes everything

The trigger for the current crisis is as much external as internal. TVK's stunning debut — 108 seats in its first election — has shaken up all aparties in Tamil Nadu. Though short of a majority by 10 seats, Vijay moved quickly, stitching together an alliance with the CPI, CPI(M), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi and the Indian Union Muslim League. He was sworn in as chief minister on May 10, capping a political rise few had anticipated at this pace.

It is that scramble for numbers that drew the Shanmugam faction into TVK's orbit. As Vijay's camp worked the phones, over 30 AIADMK MLAs, Shanmugam among them, quietly decamped to a Puducherry resort, a move widely read as an audition for a tie-up with the new government. EPS followed them there, hoping to hold his party together.

DMK overture pushes Shanmugam away

What appears to have hardened Shanmugam's resolve is a separate development: reports (which were denied by both parties) that the DMK had begun backchannel talks with the AIADMK to stop TVK's victory. The prospect of an accommodation with their oldest rival proved too much for the Shanumgam faction, according to political grapevine.

It is said to have pushed Shanmugam decisively towards the TVK camp. There are speculations that Shanumgan and his supporters might back Vijay on the floor test on May 13.

ADMK split over Legislative Party Leader

Amid a deepening factional crisis within the ADMK, it is now reported that around 30 MLAs have backed SP Velumani as their Legislative Party leader, while 17 MLAs have declared support for EPS (Edappadi K. Palaniswami). Both camps have submitted separate letters to the Assembly Secretary staking their claim. However, the question of which faction will receive official recognition within the Assembly remains unanswered — a decision that will only be possible once a Speaker is elected.

For now, the AIADMK looks less like an opposition party regrouping after defeat and more like one deciding whether it has a future at all.