AIADMK falters, DMK gains as DMDK and Vijay shake up alliances ahead of TN elections

Tamil Nadu’s fast-changing political landscape could spell trouble for Edappadi K Palaniswami, says political analyst Peer Mohamed, arguing that the AIADMK has “lost the narrative” by aligning with the BJP while the DMK sits in its “strongest historical position.” With the 2026 Assembly election approaching, alliance arithmetic is shifting rapidly — most notably the DMDK’s move from the AIADMK-led NDA to the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance. The Federal spoke to Peer Mohamed to decode the emerging political signals, the impact on key players, and the prospects of newer entrants like Vijay’s TVK.

What kind of regional advantage does the DMDK bring to the DMK-led alliance after switching sides?

It is a huge advantage for the DMK. We know that Vijayakanth commanded about 10 per cent of the electoral vote bank in Tamil Nadu. After his demise, some say it may have come down to 8 or 7 per cent. But nevertheless, it is still a sizable vote bank.

The DMK has been on a winning streak for the last seven to eight years, especially after forming a formidable alliance with the Congress, the Left, and the MDMK. They are on a very strong wicket.

The DMDK is quite strong in certain pockets like Madurai, Virudhunagar, Thoothukudi, and parts of Tirunelveli. So this move adds more firepower to the DMK in the upcoming Assembly elections.

How will the DMDK benefit from joining the DMK alliance? Is it eyeing a Rajya Sabha seat?

I don’t want to speculate. But the alliance has clearly strengthened because the DMDK sees that the winning probability of the DMK is higher. That is the reason they have come to this side.

What we are told — and this is not even speculation — is that back-channel efforts are on regarding six Assembly seats and one Rajya Sabha seat. That is currently in the works.

Of course, the DMDK has been asking for a little more. But even if they don’t get it, they will go with the DMK because the winning probability is what matters for the survival and future relevance of the DMDK after Vijayakanth’s demise. Survival is more important. That is why they are looking at the winning possibility in this election.

How far will this impact the AIADMK alliance?

The AIADMK is in poor shape and continues to weaken. In an Assembly election in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is always a liability. Given Tamil Nadu’s historical political legacy, the BJP becomes a liability.

Yes, they have four MLAs now. They have spread to many grassroots levels and built an organisation over the years. But the DMK’s rhetoric is very powerful. They are saying this election is about Delhi versus Tamil Nadu. Are you going to vote for Delhi, which is crushing Tamil Nadu, or for Tamil Nadu?

The narrative is already set. In 2024, there was an advantage because it was about capturing power in Delhi. Now it is about capturing power in Chennai. In such equations, alliances with the BJP have had a diminishing effect in Tamil Nadu.

Is the BJP unable to shed its identity as a Hindi belt or Hindutva party in Tamil Nadu?

It is not about identity. It is about the idea. The idea of social justice has been entrenched in the Tamil political mindset for the last 100 years. If you cannot outdo that narrative, you will not get space. It is as simple as that.

It is about an idea that is far more advanced than the BJP’s idea. They are not able to outdo that idea. That is the challenge.

What are the challenges before Edappadi K Palaniswami and the AIADMK?

The AIADMK already has 62 members in the Assembly. Under Edappadi K Palaniswami, they could win around 50 seats.

But with the coming of Vijay, we have to see whether that number will decrease. Vijay is catering to the same vote bank — the MGR-based, Jayalalithaa-based, personality-driven vote bank.

This election is about whether Palaniswami can retain those 62 seats. I doubt it, because they lost the narrative by aligning with the BJP.

Secondly, Vijay has positioned himself as an alternative — like Vijayakanth once did — to both the DMK and the AIADMK. In this situation, the biggest loser, in my opinion, is Palaniswami. He has to work very hard to retain his position as Leader of the Opposition in the 17th Tamil Nadu Assembly.

What are the prospects of Vijay’s TVK in 2026?

He has to prove himself. That is the challenge. The 2026 election is going to be the litmus test for Vijay. If he can garner around 25 lakh votes, as Seeman has already done with over 26 lakh, people may rally behind him.

He must be in this for the long run. He cannot expect magic to happen immediately because of star power. Tamil Nadu is a very mature political democracy. However big a star you may be, you have to prove yourself and show that you can deliver results for the public. That is the only way to get ahead.

Has Vijay improved as a political leader since launching his party?

The Karur stampede was a major setback for Vijay. The perception that he fled the scene of the tragedy has shaped public opinion in a very big way.

For him to restore his image as someone who can stand up for people will take time. He has to go and meet people. He is doing that gradually, but not enough.

He is not doing hard work yet. It will take time for him to settle down and earn the kind of public support that makes him worthy of an alliance.

What is the future of the PMK amid the rift between S Ramadoss and Anbumani Ramadoss?

There is a definitive social base for the PMK. They came through the social justice route and expanded conversations on social justice in Tamil Nadu. However, now they need to reimagine their party and their space in Tamil politics. That is not happening.

One issue is the founder’s age. The second is the ongoing controversy between father and son, who have major differences over alliance decisions and cannot reach a consensus.

This will not diminish their original social base, but electorally, it is taking a toll. They are struggling to reach new audiences or expand their support, which is the real crisis. I think they will find a way out after the elections.

What about O Panneerselvam’s political future? Could the DMK welcome him?

Panneerselvam can return to the Dravidian framework. Right now, he is neither in the AIADMK nor in the DMK.

There is a possibility that he can return to the mainstream Dravidian political framework by joining hands with Stalin. He has appreciated the governance of MK Stalin. If you ask me, the DMK is in its strongest historical position at this moment.

“This moment can be galvanised by several players, including O. Panneerselvam. He has wealth but not an audience. If he wants a ready audience, the DMK offers that space.

He cannot wait for Palaniswami to exit politics. Palaniswami has entrenched himself as Leader of the Opposition and continues to work hard.

So for Panneerselvam to find space in the larger political framework, the only option he currently has is to join hands with Stalin and become part of the DMK. He is seriously exploring that option.

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