Puthuppally bypoll: Denial of anti-incumbency factor won’t help LDF

The outcome of the Puthuppally by-election has breathed new life into the Congress in Kerala, as Chandy Oommen secured a resounding victory, surpassing the 33,044-vote margin his father had achieved in the 2011 election against Suja Susan George of the CPI(M).

Chandy Oommen’s lead over Jaick C Thomas stands at 37,719 votes, as he garnered 80,144 votes out of the total 128,624 (62.31 per cent), which is the highest ever recorded in this constituency. Chandy Oommen secured a lead in all eight local bodies within the constituency, even though six of them are governed by the LDF.

In stark contrast, CPI(M) candidate Jaick C Thomas only came out ahead in a single booth out of the total 182. This marks a notable difference from the previous election when Jaick put up a strong challenge against the late Oommen Chandy, ultimately losing to the seasoned Congress leader by a margin of 9,044 votes.

The combination of the sympathy wave following Oommen Chandy’s passing, anti-incumbency sentiment (that was notably absent during the last Assembly election) against the Pinarayi Vijayan government, and the “hostile portrayal by legacy media” seemed to have worked against the ruling coalition from a distant perspective. However, upon closer examination, it becomes evident that the CPI(M) in power will need to engage in substantial introspection if they intend to stage a comeback in the upcoming general elections.

Warning to the Left?

“Our vote base is intact,” claimed MV Govindan, the state secretary of the CPI(M). Govindan stressed that it is not fair to interpret the election outcome as a warning against the government since it was driven by sympathy rather than political factors.

On the other hand, the Congress leaders actively dubbed the election result as a complete repudiation of the government by the Puthuppally electorate. They see it as a protest against those who had targeted Oommen Chandy (alluding to the solar graft allegations that later took a scandalous turn involving a woman named Saritha Nair).

“We have demonstrated that if the UDF operates as a unified force, we have the potential to replicate this triumph in the upcoming Lok Sabha and Local Self-Government (LSG) elections. This aligns with the desires of the people of Kerala to remove the corrupt Left government,” stated Opposition leader VD Satheesan in his social media update.

Only sympathy wave?

Though the state party secretary dismissed the anti-incumbency factor, not all the leaders of the LDF share the same view.

“The result was somewhat expected with the sympathy wave, the media frenzy against us, and the character of the constituency, but the erosion in our vote base is something to worry about,” said a senior LDF leader, who did not want to go on record.

“Jaick C Thomas had been consistently expanding the vote base after our dismal show in 2011, and last time, we even managed to lead in a couple of panchayats against Oommen Chandy. But this time, we lost that momentum, and honestly, we need to introspect not only on the anti-incumbency factor but also the participation of certain allies,” added the veteran leader.

One factor the LDF, particularly the CPI(M), has never publicly admitted to in any elections is anti-incumbency. This time, the party seemed to have become complacent after securing consecutive victories in two Assembly elections, despite facing various challenges, such as the gold-smuggling case and allegations of corruption and impropriety during the COVID period. In an age where elections are contested in both physical and digital realms, the cyber enthusiasts of the CPI(M), who proudly refer to themselves as “wasps”, have garnered numerous adversaries, particularly among journalists and media organizations.

Media aversion

The media has never held a favourable view of Kerala’s Chief Minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, and his relationship with reporters has always been far from warm. His aversion to the media dates back at least two decades, to when he assumed the role of the state secretary of the CPI(M). He had several run-ins with reporters and editors with his unfriendly attitude towards them.

But in a significant turn of events, all of this contentious history was set aside when the chief minister began engaging with the media in the wake of the devastating floods that struck the state in 2018. The same leader, who had previously made the controversial decision to discontinue the weekly Cabinet briefings, held 16 news conferences in just 10 days.

He maintained this practice even during the COVID lockdown, conducting daily media briefing for over a month regularly at 6 pm. This made him highly popular among the public, despite his tough image, as these briefings were among the most-watched television programmes at the time. These press conferences played a significant role in his re-election as chief minister. However, after his second term, he reverted to his previous pattern and reduced his interactions with the media once again. It has been over six months since he has held a news conference with journalists.

The chief minister and his party’s choice to abstain from addressing or responding to the accusations involving his daughter’s contentious contract with a questionable company became a primary focal point of the UDF’s campaign in Puthuppally. The absence of any response regarding the allegations against the chief minister’s daughter, Veena T, who is also married to PWD Minister PA Mohammed Riyas, provided the Opposition with an opening to depict him as a nepotistic father and a leader tainted by corruption.

Need for communication

“He has the capacity to provide a plausible explanation, and we have convincing explanations too. However, the party’s stance was to refrain from any engagement. I personally feel that the chief minister could have communicated with the media a lot more, than he does it now,” said a former CPI(M) MLA.

However, he expressed doubt whether, in the current unfavourable climate, with the media largely opposing them, he would have received the same favourable treatment as during the COVID period. “The media in the state is totally against us, to the extent that they have not paid any attention to the authoritarian and divisive actions of the Union government, such as attempting to change the country’s name or imposing financial constraints on the states,” added the leader.

When the gold-smuggling case emerged in 2020, the government had successfully defended it by taking proactive measures, such as urging the Union government to conduct a comprehensive investigation. He also had the advantage of the anti-CAA protests and the significant efforts made by the government during the COVID pandemic, including the distribution of free grocery kits, to navigate the challenges posed by these allegations.

However, during the subsequent round of allegations, when Swapna Suresh, the central figure in the gold-smuggling case, began making a series of accusations against the chief minister and his family, his decision was to disregard them, a tactic that appears to have had some negative consequences.

Challenging road ahead

Furthermore, during Pinarayi Vijayan’s second term as chief minister, a surge of additional allegations emerged, encompassing issues like university appointments, counterfeit documents, and, most notably, the performance of the home and finance departments. The financial crunch has affected the performance of the government to a large extent, with many departments struggling to manage funds to operate. Most recently, the paddy farmers’ issue of not receiving their compensation in time cropped up. These allegations collectively made the optics very bad for the government, especially with the negative press they are getting.

With the general elections on the horizon and the Enforcement Directorate intensifying their investigations into several leaders across various cases, coupled with the emergence of vague allegations, the ruling coalition in Kerala is anticipated to face a challenging road ahead. There are as many as three or four senior leaders on the radar of the central agencies who, in all probability, will be targets of inquiries in the run-up to the elections. The government, on the other hand, has not been able to come clean on several allegations that have surfaced in the recent past, putting the ruling front in a tricky position.

The LDF must adopt a fresh strategy, one forged through a thorough introspection of the current crisis. To do so, they must open-mindedly assess and acknowledge the factors contributing to the setback in Puthuppally. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has no other choice right now.