Pathanamthitta LS constituency, UDF fortress, braces for a riveting three-way battle
Congress, which won Pathanamthitta thrice in a row, is spending a significant amount of energy to counter BJP’s Anil Antony. Left has fielded Dr TM Thomas Isaac in the seat
On the day of Vishu, Dr TM Thomas Isaac, a former finance minister and the LDF candidate for the Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha seat, received a heart-warming surprise at a campaign stop. His 93-year-old mother Saramma came visiting. Accompanied by Issac’s younger brother Antony Mathew, Saramma spent precious moments with her son in Valaparamba at Thiruvalla and planted a kiss on his cheek.
In fact, Dr Thomas Issac’s candidature has put Pathanamthitta on the list of keenly contested constituencies in Kerala. However, with the BJP fielding Anil K Antony, son of former Kerala chief minister and Congress stalwart AK Antony, against the incumbent three-time MP, Anto Antony of the Congress, it has managed to evoke a hype of a tightly contested three-way battle.
Christian domination
Pathanamthitta, carved out of Assembly segments from Kottayam and Pathanamthitta districts, embodies the quintessential characteristics of central Travancore. It boasts a predominantly Christian electorate, alongside a substantial presence of upper-class Non-Resident Indians (NRIs). The LS constituency has long been recognised as a stronghold of the Congress-led UDF. In the last three elections, it elected Anto Antony.
However, the political dynamics surrounding the Sabarimala issue since 2018 have added a new dimension to the electoral landscape, with BJP state president K Surendran amassing 297,396 votes. In 2019, Anto Antony edged past the present health minister of Kerala, Veena George, by 44,243 votes, which is not huge considering the magnitude of swing in favour of the UDF in that election across the state.
Sabarimala row
Surendran’s performance was the direct impact of the Sabarimala woman entry fiasco as he had been jailed for leading some communally sensitive and violent protests by the BJP and RSS workers. Anto Antony garnered 380,927 votes and Veena George 336,684 votes, leaving Surendran in third place. But it was significant that both the LDF and UDF suffered significant vote loss while the BJP made a giant leap of 13.50 per cent in votes from the vote share in 2014.
Why LDF picked Thomas Isaac?
However, the LDF regained the ground in the 2021 Assembly elections and it currently controls all seven Assembly segments in the constituency.
Isaac with his 93-year-old mother Saramma at an election campaign.
It has been making steady progress in the region since the 2016 Assembly elections – the only exception being 2019 – and that is the reason why the party has assigned Thomas Isaac, a top leader, to wrest the seat.
“Christian conservatism remains dominant in the constituency without notable alteration. However, we anticipate gaining support from the Muslim population as well as from backward Hindu voters. Additionally, women voters are leaning towards us, especially the commendable work carried out by Kudumbasree,” said a confident-sounding Thomas Isaac.
“In parliament elections, here the traditional votes have historically been against the Left. But we are determined to reverse that trend.”
UDF’s critique of ruling LDF, Thomas Isaac
On the flip side, the UDF is leaning on its traditional supporters, emphasising grievances like those of settler farmers, the plummeting rubber prices and the surge in human-animal conflict to fuel dissatisfaction against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF government. Additionally, the UDF is highlighting the state’s precarious financial condition. It is targeting Thomas Isaac, labelling him the main culprit responsible for Kerala’s financial woes, alleging mismanagement during his tenure as finance minister.
“The credibility of the LDF candidate is under scrutiny, with even his party leaders holding him responsible for the financial crisis,” says Anto Antony. “The public is well-informed about his record as the former finance minister and the current state of affairs in our state. These factors are expected to have a significant impact on the outcome in Pathanamthitta.”
Parties bank on religious outreach
The UDF candidate’s campaign strategy frequently involves multiple visits to religious figures in the constituency, in addition to the typical corner meetings. The alliance attempts to leverage the strong relationships Anto Antony maintains with religious institutions to garner support.
The Catholic Church holds the key in two Assembly segments, Kanjirappally and Poonjar. The Orthodox and Marthoma denominations have significant presence in other segments. Even though all the seven Assembly segments in Pathanamthitta have LDF MLAs, the Left is well aware that this need not reflect in a parliamentary election.
The BJP is also counting on Christian votes, having enlisted the support of PC George, a former MLA and former leader of the Kerala Congress who recently merged his regional party Janapaksham with the BJP. Despite his disappointment at not contesting the seat himself, he is actively campaigning for Anil Antony.
Will ‘Modi wave’ work in favour of Anil Antony?
Anil Antony’s approach to interacting with the public, along with his mode of communication, deviates slightly from the typical style of BJP leaders. This is evident on his campaign trail. However, recent allegations made by TG Nandakumar, a middleman, claiming that Anil Antony took bribes to secure the appointment of a CBI standing counsel during AK Antony’s tenure as defence minister have shifted attention toward him. Evading questions on the issue, Anil Antony has tried to shift the discussion towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Anil Antony with BJP Workers during his campaign.
He has even unveiled a constituency-specific manifesto – launched by BJP leader Meenakshi Lekhi – highlighting the alleged inefficiency of the incumbent MP.
“Given the current pro-incumbency wave in support of the Modi government, I am confident that voters are ready to usher in change this time, disrupting the cyclic dominance of the UDF-LDF coalition. Furthermore, in the context of a national election, the most substantial efforts of the Congress in Pathanamthitta will be overshadowed by the impact of even a single campaign event led by Modi,” said Anil Antony.
His father AK Antony, who is not campaigning actively this time due to health issues, however has distanced himself from his son’s political endeavours.
“The BJP should lose and the Congress should win in Pathanamthitta. Anto Antony (Congress candidate) will win. The Congress is my religion,” asserted the veteran Congress leader.
Congress vs BJP
Anil Antony insists that Congress leaders are behind the allegations against him but Anto Antony rejects the claim.
“I do not know this Nandakumar in person. But he convened a news conference to level the allegations against the BJP candidate. If those are false, Anil Antony should initiate legal action,” said Anto Antony.
The Congress is spending a significant amount of energy to counter Anil Antony. They feel that allegation against him, on the surface seemingly in their favour, may backfire as AK Antony’s name is involved. The Congress leadership is avoiding involvement in the controversy.
“He is a turncoat who deserted the party but he still has the right to engage in politics and express support for Modi,” said MM Hassan, the acting president of the Kerala unit of the Congress.
“However, when Anil Antony claims that Congress leaders are outdated, he is including his own father. Are parents akin to medicine that you discard once they have reached their expiry date? He has become the incarnation of Judas, betraying Jesus Christ for 30 pieces of silver. We can’t help but feel pity for him,” added Hassan.
Thomas Isaac and ED
The Enforcement Directorate’s focus on Thomas Isaac regarding the KIIFB (Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board) is another contentious topic in the campaign.
While the UDF and the BJP are using it as a weapon against the former minister, suggesting that he may soon end up in jail, Isaac has a different take on the matter.
“Regarding the ED case, I am leveraging it as a campaign focal point, which I believe will work to our advantage. Despite the ED pursuing me for the past two years, they have failed to substantiate any allegations against me. Their repeated setbacks in court only underscore their lack of evidence. I am emphasising this to the public. It is proving advantageous for my campaign,” he told The Federal.
Survey forecast
The day The Federal visited the constituency, a pre-poll survey projected a UDF victory, with LDF and NDA tied in the second place. The LDF was quick to reject it, not just because it showed UDF as winner but it gave the BJP undue importance.
“This survey results are nonsensical as they have assigned 28 per cent of the votes to both me and the BJP candidate. In the previous election, buoyed by the Sabarimala wave, the BJP garnered 29 per cent in 2019 but this dwindled to 16 per cent in the 2021 Assembly elections. Now, it appears the media house that did it is attempting to position Anil as second in order to sway Muslim votes towards the UDF. However, they lack the courage to explicitly state that the LDF will fall to third place,” said Thomas Isaac.
While Sabarimala was the focal point of controversy in the last elections, this time it might be the stance of the Church.
Role of church
Pathanamthitta is one of the constituencies where the Christian denomination holds significant sway. The dynamics have shifted with the Kerala Congress (M) changing allegiances. However, the growing dissatisfaction within the Church towards the LDF government may alter this scenario.
All attention is on the Church denominations and their attitude towards the BJP as it could impact the fortunes of the UDF, potentially benefiting the LDF or even the BJP at least in terms of an increased vote share.
