Kerala misses early monsoon date; IMD announces new possible time
The southwest monsoon, forecast to arrive ahead of schedule on May 26, has been delayed and may now reach Kerala only between June 2 and 4, says IMD
India's most anticipated weather event has been put on hold. The southwest monsoon, which the India Meteorological Department had optimistically forecast to arrive over Kerala on May 26 — five days ahead of its normal June 1 onset — has failed to materialise on schedule, with the revised window now pointing to June 2–4.
Why the delay?
The monsoon is not governed by a fixed timetable. Before The India Meteorological Department (IMD) can officially declare its onset, three conditions must align: at least 60 per cent of 14 designated weather stations across Kerala must record 2.5 mm or more of rainfall over two consecutive days, alongside specific wind speed and cloud cover thresholds. As of May 25, none of these criteria had been met.
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Atmospheric systems over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea remain broadly favourable for further advancement, but real-time conditions have not yet cooperated.
Kerala already receiving rain
The formal declaration, however, has not stopped the rain. Several parts of Kerala have already been receiving heavy showers accompanied by thunderstorms. The IMD has placed Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha and Ernakulam under yellow alert, with the first three districts expected to remain on alert through Wednesday.
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North India swelters
While Kerala copes with early downpours, northern, central and western India continue to endure severe heatwave conditions. Temperatures in New Delhi have repeatedly crossed 45°C, with nights offering little relief at around 30°C.
A potential worrying season ahead
A delay of a few days is not unusual and does not by itself signal a troubled season. The larger concern is IMD's earlier projection that total seasonal rainfall for 2026 could fall below normal owing to the anticipated onset of El Nino later in the year.