Modi Cabinet reshuffle: What is BJP's Karnataka plan with eye on 2028 state polls?

The long-awaited reshuffle of the Union Cabinet under the NDA government led by Narendra Modi, which returned to power for a third consecutive term at the Centre, is now almost certain. The significant political exercise underway in New Delhi has sparked intense speculation in Karnataka politics, particularly within the BJP.

With the 2028 Karnataka Assembly elections firmly in focus, the BJP high command is likely to strengthen the state's representation in the Union Cabinet while working out a fresh caste equation. This has fuelled curiosity over how the changes will affect Karnataka's political leadership and who stands to benefit.

Karnataka's representation in current Cabinet

Going by the current political landscape and electoral numbers, the NDA won 19 Lok Sabha seats from Karnataka. Of these, 17 MPs were elected from the BJP, while two entered Parliament on JD(S) tickets.

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Prime Minister Modi's current Council of Ministers comprises 71 members, including 30 Cabinet ministers, 36 Ministers of State and five Ministers of State with Independent Charge.

From Karnataka, five leaders have been inducted into the Union Cabinet, including Rajya Sabha member Nirmala Sitharaman. Senior BJP leaders Pralhad Joshi, V Somanna and Shobha Karandlaje are serving as Union ministers. Under the NDA alliance quota, JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy has also been accommodated in the Cabinet. Among these five, only Kumaraswamy and Joshi hold Cabinet ranks.

Additional Cabinet berths: Dalit and OBC calculations

Keeping the 2028 Assembly elections in mind, Karnataka is expected to get one or two additional ministerial berths in the upcoming reshuffle.

A key concern is that the present Union Cabinet has no representation from Karnataka's Dalit community—particularly the Left Dalit sub-group—or from the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). In Modi's second term, two Dalit leaders from the state were part of the Union Cabinet.

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If the BJP high command decides to prioritise these communities from an electoral perspective, Kota Srinivas Poojary and PC Mohan are emerging as the leading contenders.

Will a change in state BJP chief pave way for Raghavendra?

The biggest discussion within the Karnataka BJP currently revolves around a possible change in the state party president and how caste considerations could influence appointments to the Union Cabinet.

Given the political importance of the Lingayat vote bank in Karnataka, the party leadership is said to be considering greater representation for the community. Although Somanna is already a Union minister from the Lingayat quota, he does not hold Cabinet rank. If another Lingayat leader is considered for a ministerial post, BY Raghavendra, son of former Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa is likely to be among the frontrunners.

Balancing power within party

However, this presents a challenge in maintaining the internal balance of power.

BY Vijayendra, son of Yediyurappa is currently the Karnataka BJP president, while Yediyurappa is a member of the party's Parliamentary Board. If Raghavendra is also inducted into the Union Cabinet, there are concerns within the party that too much influence would be concentrated within the same political family.

According to political discussions within the party, if Vijayendra is replaced as the state BJP president and the post is handed to a leader from the Vokkaliga community, it would make it easier to appoint Raghavendra, a Lingayat leader, as a Union minister.

At the same time, there is serious speculation that Karandlaje or Somanna could be considered for the post of Karnataka BJP president. Party insiders suggest that Raghavendra's induction into the Union Cabinet is likely only if Vijayendra is replaced. However, whether Yediyurappa or Vijayendra would agree to such an arrangement remains a major question.

Kumaraswamy looking to return to state politics

Amid these political calculations, another major development is that Union Minister Kumaraswamy is reportedly keen to return to active state politics.

It is learnt that he has already conveyed his political preference to Modi. However, there appears to be little possibility of his stepping down from the Union Cabinet immediately.

According to reliable sources, Kumaraswamy is expected to resign from the Union Cabinet when only about a year remains for the next Karnataka Assembly election, allowing him to devote himself entirely to state politics.

(This article was originally published in The Federal Karnataka)