Karnataka: After Assembly polls, party survey predicts major loss for BJP in LS polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is in a state of shock after an internal survey indicated that it will barely win 10-12 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka next year, in comparison to the 25 seats it won in 2019.

The BJP’s grand victory in Karnataka was one of the reasons why the party’s nationwide parliamentary tally crossed the spectacular 300-mark five years ago.

According to a highly placed source in the BJP, the survey has predicted a big loss in the parliamentary elections in the state scheduled next year. In the best circumstances, the BJP could win up to 12 seats and lose as many as 13 to the state’s now-ruling Congress.

Several internal surveys had similarly predicted a defeat for the BJP in the assembly elections. BJP leaders in the state somehow thought they would overcome the difficulties by asking Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to campaign extensively in Karnataka.

Modi and Shah did precisely that but it did not prevent the BJP from facing the drubbing it got, ending its five-year reign in the only state in southern India and bringing the Congress back to power with a sound majority in the assembly.

Dire prediction

Knowing that the survey findings came true in May, the BJP has been stunned by the findings of the latest internal survey for the Lok Sabha battle.

A BJP leader, who was a part of the survey team, told The Federal that the party could retain its Lok Sabha seats in the Old Mysuru region, including Bengaluru, Mysuru, Tumkuru and Mandya as well as Mangalore, Udupi and Shivamogga. But its MPs from the North Karnataka region were set to go down, he said.

The reasons listed in the survey for the BJP’s expected reverses are many, some reasons being more important than the others.

One is the continuing leadership crisis in the BJP. The party has not named since its defeat in May a new state president or the Leader of Opposition in the Karnataka assembly.

This is due to deep factional feud. The factionalism has not only sent a negative message to voters but has also derailed the morale of party workers, already wounded by the May rout.

The survey has also admitted that the Congress government led by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is gaining popularity across the state, mainly due to its welfare policies.

These include Stree Shakti (free bus travel for women), Griha Lakshmi (Rs 2,000 to the woman head of family), free power up to 200 units and Anna Bhagya (free rice up to 10 kg for BPL families).

Consistent chaos

The Lingayat community also remains disappointed by the BJP’s decision to sideline the party’s most influential and popular Lingayat leader – former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa.

He was not even consulted in the selection of candidates for the May elections. At the same time, several others including former Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, Basanagouda Patil Yatnal and Aravind Bellada are claiming the Lingayat leadership. This has created confusion among the community, mainly in the North Karnataka region.

The survey has suggested that the party leadership should resolve the leadership crisis before facing the parliament elections. The survey also wants the BJP to name a new state president and the Opposition leader in the state legislature.

The survey has made it clear that the 80-year-old Yediyurappa must be asked to fight the Lok Sabha elections. This alone could bring the Lingayat community back into the fold of the BJP and check the party’s falling graph in the North Karnataka region.

Another BJP leader told The Federal that several MPs who won in 2018 from North Karnataka region may not be given ticket this time.