DK Shivakumar looks set to become Karnataka CM; what next for Siddaramaiah?

The Congress high command appears to have finally made up its mind in favour of a leadership change in the Karnataka government. Save for any surprises that he may yet throw up to stump his party bosses, Siddaramaiah is expected to step down as Karnataka chief minister "very soon" to make way, in all likelihood, for his deputy and state Congress chief DK Shivakumar.

On Tuesday (May 26), Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Lok Sabha's Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi met Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar at Indira Bhawan, the party headquarters in New Delhi, in the hope of putting an end to the turf war between the two Karnataka satraps.

Siddaramaiah’s four rounds of talks with high command

Officially, the party's national general secretary (organisation) KC Venugopal, who himself lost out earlier this month to VD Satheesan in the race to become Kerala's new CM, claimed Tuesday's marathon meetings with the Karnataka leaders were not about leadership change but selection of the party's candidates for the upcoming Rajya Sabha and Legislative Council elections. The optics around Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar's meetings and the unending public statements by their respective loyalists on the issue of leadership transition, however, betrayed Venugopal's assertion. That Venugopal refused to take any questions from the media while commenting about the meetings and maintained a stoic silence on queries about Siddaramaiah's continuation as CM only added to speculations about an imminent intra-party transfer of power in Karnataka.

Also read: No discussion on Karnataka CM change, says Congress after big meeting

Siddaramaiah is learnt to have had at least four rounds of talks with the high command – the first with Kharge, Rahul, Venugopal and Congress's Karnataka in-charge Randeep Surjewala all in attendance, then with Kharge and Rahul, followed by a nearly 45-minute-long closed-door discussion with just the Lok Sabha LoP. There was then a break in talks as Rahul left for 10 Janpath, the official residence of his mother and Congress Parliamentary Party chief Sonia Gandhi, ostensibly for lunch. Upon his return to Indira Bhawan, Rahul, along with Kharge and Venugopal had another meeting with Siddaramaiah during which Shivakumar was also present.

The exact details of the terms and timing of the transition from a Siddaramaiah-led government to one likely led by Shivakumar are not clear yet. A leader privy to some part of Tuesday's discussions, however, told The Federal that the high command had "made it absolutely clear that this issue (of changing the CM) cannot remain unresolved any longer".

Rahul’s backing for Siddaramaiah

Thus far, Rahul had been the most strident votary within the high command for Siddaramaiah being allowed to complete a full term as CM. It is, perhaps in part, for this reason that the task of convincing the Machiavellian Karnataka CM to step down was also left to Rahul.

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Rahul is learnt to have "laid out the compulsions" for forcing a leadership transition to Siddaramaiah, who had arrived in Delhi with a retinue of senior Karnataka ministers and party leaders loyal to him as a show of strength. Among the reasons Rahul cited, said a source privy to part of Tuesday's discussions, were the perception of growing anti-incumbency against the Congress in Karnataka due to the relentless power tussle between the 78-yearold CM and his 64-yearold deputy and that the party favoured a relatively younger leader to take charge of the government and aggressively fulfill the party's poll promises given that the next Assembly polls were just two years away.

To soften the blow, Rahul is learnt to have plied Siddaramaiah with assurances and flattery. As the party's only chief minister from the backward classes and one who is known to command the loyalty of Karnataka's sizeable AHINDA (minority, backward caste and Dalits) vote bank, Siddaramaiah was told he is held in highest esteem by the party and by Rahul in particular and that stepping down as CM would "in no way" diminish his role and stature within the Congress.

Option to switch to national role

Sources said Rahul offered Siddaramaiah the option of switching from state politics to a national role by agreeing to contest the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls from Karnataka, where the Congress is assured of winning three of the four seats that are up for election. The Lok Sabha's LoP is learnt to have insisted that a switch to Rajya Sabha, where the Congress line-up includes party chief Kharge and CPP chairperson Sonia, would elevate Siddaramaiah's stature as a national leader who has the gravitas to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government on a catena of issues, including Centre-State relations, economic challenges before the country due to flawed policies of the BJP-led NDA regime and issues concerning the backward castes, minorities and Dalits. Additionally, the Congress too would benefit from Siddaramaiah's wise counsel on matters concerning historically oppressed, socially backward and economically poor communities, considering that Rahul has been trying to reorient the party's social coalition by championing the cause of OBCs, minorities, tribals and Dalits.

Also read: 'Patience will also pay': DK Shivakumar on speculation about Karnataka leadership change

While Siddaramaiah is learnt to have remained non-committal, sources said Rahul was "polite but firm" in conveying to the Karnataka strongman that he had to step down now.

Siddaramaiah’s suggestion: Parameshwara as CM

Sources said Siddaramaiah had, during an earlier meeting in the day, indicated his willingness to step down if the party chose to replace him with Karnataka Home Minister G Parameshwara, a Dalit, and not with Shivakumar, who belongs to the forward Vokkaliga caste. The Karnataka CM's suggestion, aimed at scuttling Shivakumar's chief ministerial bid by shrewdly throwing in a Dalit card, was couched in the electoral rationale that the Congress's most loyal base in Karnataka was among the OBCs, Muslims and Dalits – the AHINDA votebank – and that a decision to replace an OBC CM with an upper caste Vokkaliga would not bode well for the party electorally, especially since chances of the Vokkaliga vote bank, traditionally split between the Congress and HD Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (Secular), consolidating en masse behind Shivakumar were slim. Besides, the Congress's seniormost Dalit leader today – party president Kharge – had thrice been bypassed for the CM's post by his party in the past despite his seniority and vast administrative experience; a historical wrong that Siddaramaiah hinted the Congress has a chance to correct now by appointing Parameshwara as CM.

Party insiders, however, insisted that Rahul had made it known to Siddaramaiah that while he would have a say in shaping the long-due Cabinet reshuffle, "the choice of who would be the new CM cannot be dictated to the high command", especially when Congress president Kharge himself belongs to Karnataka.

A senior party leader told The Federal that a leadership transition was now "no longer a matter of 'if' but when" and said that "an official announcement may come very soon, possibly by the end of this week or coinciding with the party's announcement of its candidates from Karnataka" for the June 18 Rajya Sabha polls.

Congress takes ‘big risk’

Another party functionary, however, cautioned that the high command had "taken a big risk' by telling Siddaramaiah to step down but also allowing him a few days to think over what role he would like to pursue in the party after demitting office. "What if he goes back and mounts a rebellion or decides to sabotage the party during the Rajya Sabha elections," this functionary wondered, recalling that like Siddaramaiah, Ashok Gehlot too during his stint as Rajasthan CM would repeatedly say he would step down as CM whenever the high command ordered "but when Sonia Gandhi actually asked him to resign and take charge as Congress president in 2022 so that Sachin Pilot could become CM, Gehlot engineered a revolt by his loyalist MLAs in Rajasthan".

The big question before the Congress high command, a section of party leaders say, is what it can offer to Siddaramaiah to ensure his continued fealty even after being forced to resign as CM. Like Gehlot, Siddaramaiah has made no secret of his preference for remaining the prime mover in Congress's Karnataka politics instead of becoming just another bench-warming MP or office bearer in Delhi, where the party's influence even within the Opposition's INDIA bloc is fickle. With fellow Kannadiga Kharge already party president and LoP in Rajya Sabha, neither of these posts is likely to come Siddaramaiah's way as just compensation for giving up the CM's chair. The Karnataka CM is also not one for flashy outbursts; the sort that younger Congress MPs in both Houses of Parliament have adopted in recent years to endear themselves to the party high command.

As such, while the high command may have given Siddaramaiah a polite ultimatum for a graceful exit, whether the Karnataka CM sees it the same way is not known. By choosing to finally bite the Karnataka bullet but at the same time leaving it to Siddaramaiah to decide when and under what terms he steps down, the Congress high command has now put the ball in the court of a wily leader known to keep his cards close to his chest. The next few days would tell whether the nataka (drama) in Karnataka is finally at an end or simply transitioning to its next Act.