Election 2024: Akhilesh realigns options as saffron sway gets stronger

While inaugurating a cycle rally of SP youth in the Mulayam clan’s hometown of Saifai on November 21, Akhilesh even declared that all 80 seats in UP would be contested by the PDA (Pichchadivarg-Dalits-Alpasankhyas, or Backwards-Dalits-Minorities, an alliance of SP and RLD). However, drawing a blank and ending up with a miserable vote share of 0.46 per cent in Madhya Pradesh despite fielding 69 candidates, Akhilesh appears to have sobered up.

While welcoming Akhilesh’s unity call, Zafar Bakht, a noted civil society personality in Prayagraj, pointed out that the two parties have not yet projected an image of unity on the ground. Bakht said: “After victory in three states, the BJP is building up a perception that they would sweep the Hindi belt in 2024. They have made a Yadav (Mohan Yadav) the chief minister in Madhya Pradesh to neutralise the united SP-Congress challenge in UP. The three victories have made them overconfident in UP. But BJP’s triumphalism has not demoralised the Opposition; rather, the mood is upbeat among Congress and SP ranks. They can very well see through the other pattern emerging in the Assembly polls — the vote-share margin between the BJP and the Opposition is quite narrow and a sizable reservoir of anti-BJP votes remains intact and has not melted away.”

Muzaffar Abbas, a journalist, also felt that if Akhilesh doesn’t get his act together and forges unity with the Congress, not only a section of Muslims but even a fraction of Yadavs could look elsewhere. "Opposition politics needs more aggression," he added.

Mayawati not down or out

Yet another reason behind Akhilesh’s change of mood on the INDIA alliance is the realisation that Mayawati’s BSP is neither down nor out. Surprisingly, the BSP polled 3.32 per cent votes in Madhya Pradesh, 2.09 per cent in Chhattisgarh, 1.82 per cent in Rajasthan, and 1.38 per cent in Telangana. Though it was a shade below its performance in 2018, representing only a small fraction of total Dalit voters in these states, its performance was far better than that of SP.

More importantly, the BSP was responsible for the defeat of either BJP or Congress candidates in 60 constituencies in all three states. The party's potential to play spoiler in a big way has been worrisome for the SP in UP as well.

Earlier, a section of the media and most political parties had concluded that Mayawati’s political career was finished after BSP’s electoral marginalisation in successive elections. They thought BSP’s Dalit vote base was up for grabs.

To woo Dalits, Akhilesh personally started visiting their settlements and addressing their mass gatherings. SP’s victory in Ghosi bypoll — with the support of around 60,000 Dalit voters — also gave a fillip to the party's strategy of pursuing Dalits.

Usha Singh, an academic at Mau, told The Federal that the unusual phenomenon of Dalits voting for SP was mainly due to a spike in the price of essentials.

What happened in Ghosi may not play out again in the Lok Sabha elections. After all, the BJP was defeated in the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha constituency, a citadel of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and in Phulpur, the backyard of Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya, in the March 2018 bypolls.

There was anger against the BJP at that time too. But, in the 2019 general elections, BJP not only won these two seats but also swept 64 of the 80 LS seats in the state, including their ally Apna Dal’s seats.

The all-important Dalit votes

In the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2022, the bulk of the Pasis and Valmikis, two other Dalit communities next to Chamars, voted for the BJP. The surveys by CSDS, a civil society outfit that conducts regular pre- and post-poll surveys, showed that, for the first time, around 35 per cent of Chamars/Jatavs also did not vote for BSP in 2022.

Hence, a prominent political feature in the run-up to the 2024 polls will involve all the contesting parties going all out to win Dalits. However, the opinion is divided on how Dalits will vote in 2024.

Satyendra Kushwaha, a videographer hailing from Karchana bloc in rural Prayagraj, told The Federal that 2022 could have been an exception, and the Dalits in his bloc, especially the Chamars, would largely vote for Mayawati. Rajendra Kumar Maurya, a vegetable wholesaler who visits 40-50 villages in and around Hathgaon bloc in Prayagraj every day, however, felt that a section of Dalits, including Chamars, in his bloc will vote for BJP to get some benefits.

Journalist Muzaffar Abbas felt some Dalits prefer BJP simply because they have been saffronised.

BSP’s performance in other states has rejuvenated its workers in Uttar Pradesh too. Mayawati anointing Akash Anand as her successor has also enthused them. But they understand that though the number of seats does not matter in Parliamentary elections as much as they do in the state polls, the party still has to prove its strength in terms of vote share for the sake of future political manoeuvres.

While it was widely believed that BSP was a B-team of the BJP, Mayawati recently reiterated that her party will fight the Lok Sabha polls on its own. She may, however, retain the option of supporting the BJP post-polls.

Saffron sway over Hindi belt

Immediately after the poll results for the five states were out, notables from the steadily expanding RSS network started openly declaring on local TV channels that the BJP would romp home with 350 seats in 2024.

After Ayodhya and Kashi, a recent Allahabad High Court order directing a survey of the Gyanvapi mosque in Mathura to look for signs of destruction of an ancient Hindu temple has also made SP leaders realise that the saffron camp is moving from strength to strength.

So, according to political observers, the SP may accommodate Congress as Akhilesh’s own all-India ambitions have also not totally waned. Some senior bureaucrats are also reportedly advising Akhilesh that SP will end up with a bigger overall tally by conceding a few more seats to Congress rather than going alone.

Former vice-chancellor of Lucknow University, Rooprekha Verma, told The Federal, “For the SP to give a fitting challenge to the BJP, serious work has to start on the ground. That has not started yet. In contrast, the BJP has been active throughout the year.”

The pressure for the SP-Congress alliance is very strong from the Muslim community. Minority leaders who are meeting Akhilesh have reportedly conveyed to him strongly that Muslim votes will get divided if the two parties go their separate ways.

The experience in Telangana where Muslims voted en masse for Congress, even in the strongholds of AIMIM, is also having an impact on SP leaders.

New challenges for Yogi

Outwardly, there doesn’t seem to be any sharp anti-incumbency against Yogi, and the Modi factor still seems to be at work, though at a more modest level. Except for sugarcane growers, farmers have no pressing issue against the government.

Ramnaresh, a small farmer in Pratapgarh, told The Federal, “The BJP poll machinery has started spreading news that the annual cash support to farmers will be increased from ₹6,000 to ₹10,000. Despite anger among farmers and labourers, they will ultimately vote for the party with this kind of news spreading across."

Akhilesh, as usual, has activated social engineering mode, meeting non-Yadav OBC leaders and Dalit leaders, and encouraging floor-crossings by prominent leaders from BSP and Congress. Since the Brahmin community is dissatisfied at their relative marginalisation in Yogi’s “Thakur Raj”, Akhilesh is also desperately courting prominent Brahmins and engaging them for pujas in major temples.

"Though soft Hinudtva had not clicked in the past, the SP doesn’t seem to be learning any lessons," said Abbas.

So, 2024 is poised to be mainly a bi-polar contest between BJP and the SP-Congress alliance with the BSP at best playing spoilsport for both in a few constituencies. Many INDIA bloc supporters are eagerly waiting to see whether SP can restrict BJP’s tally to less than 40 and the BJP supporters hope that the party improves upon its 2019 tally of 64 seats. A keen battle is on the cards.