J&K polls: NC poised for big electoral gains as Abdullahs seen as 'lesser evil'

And yet, equally evident are portents of a tumultuous political future for the Abdullahs; particularly for Omar who, after a crushing Lok Sabha defeat this June from Baramulla, has returned to the poll fray from two constituencies – the Abdullah ‘family seat’ of Ganderbal and Budgam.

The early euphoria around Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), appears to be abating in north Kashmir, while in south Kashmir, Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is yet to fully shed the infamy it had gained for its 2014 alliance with the BJP.

Central Kashmir, especially Srinagar, was anyway expected to hold up its reputation of being an unwavering NC bastion. The NC, which is contesting the ongoing polls in a visibly frayed alliance with the Congress party, thus, appears set to benefit from the so-called TINA (there is no alternative) factor.

Lesser evil

Not to the ordinary Kashmiri but to ‘outsiders’, among them the scores of journalists who have for the past month descended into Kashmir from Delhi and elsewhere, what may seem ironic is that this palpable groundswell of support for the NC is rarely an endorsement of the party’s top leadership. In fact, most discussions about the Abdullahs (certainly also about the PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti) draw a loathsome “sab chor hain” (they are all thieves) barb before being qualified with statements that either plead an abject lack of faith in the electoral system or assert the need to choose the “lesser evil”.

Conversations this reporter had with Kashmiris from a cross-section of the Valley’s electorate – dizzyingly multi-layered in its political, social, economic and religious convictions – in assembly segments spread across the districts of Srinagar, Ganderbal, Baramulla, Budgam and Kupwara boiled down to two broad sentiments.

First, the BJP and “all its proxies”, real or perceived, have to be defeated in the ongoing election as retribution for the reading down of Article 370 and the “injustice” that has been heaped on Kashmir by the Centre as a consequence of that abrogation. Second, that though the Kashmiris believe the NC to be best placed to form the government this time round and so would vote for the party (if they vote at all), they “don’t expect the Abdullahs to do anything good for us”.

Also read: J&K polls | Mehbooba suspends poll campaign to express solidarity with Hezbollah chief

“I am 49 years old and I have never voted in any election but this time, I will definitely vote to teach the BJP a lesson,” Bashaarat Dar, who runs a general store in Srinagar’s Chanapora, told The Federal. Dar added that the electoral contest in his Chanapora constituency is mainly between Apni Party chief Altaf Bukhari and the NC’s Mushtaq Guroo though Iqbal Trumboo of the PDP and the BJP’s Hilal Wani are also in the fray.

Dar is confident that “Wani, like every BJP candidate in Kashmir, will lose his deposit” and also that Bukhari too would be defeated, “despite spending crores in the election” because he is seen as a “BJP proxy”. Ask Dar who he would vote for and he readily shared, “the NC, who else?”. But then, in a matter of fact tone, he added promptly that he has “zero expectations” of any relief for ordinary Kashmiris from an NC-led government because the Abdullahs “work for themselves, not for us”.

Anti-BJP sentiment

In Sopore, 79-year-old Abdul Qayyum echoed the same sentiments. Once a staunch follower of Hurriyat Conference founder, late Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Qayuum blames Farooq Abdullah for turning Kashmir into a “valley of bloodshed” due to the chain of events that unravelled since the 1987 J&K elections, widely perceived as having been rigged by the NC. Yet, this election, Qayyum says he “may vote for the NC”.

Since 1987, Qayyum has voted only once – for AIP founder Engineer Rashid in the recent Lok Sabha poll for the Baramulla constituency. The AIP has fielded advocate Mursaleen from the Sopore assembly seat but Qayyum believes “a vote for the AIP may be a vote for Delhi”, given the steadily gaining perception in north Kashmir that Engineer was released on parole from Tihar Jail as part of a “deal with the BJP” to queer the pitch for an NC-led government in J&K.

“In the Lok Sabha polls, we all voted for Engineer because we saw hope for a new leadership in him; a leadership that will truly speak up for Kashmiris and stand up to Delhi’s dictatorship but now it seems he has also sold his soul to the powers in Delhi in exchange for his freedom... hum kashmiriyon ki yahi kismat hai; hum kisi par bhi bharosa karein, badle mei hame dhokha hi milta hai (this has been the fate of Kashmiris, we are betrayed by whoever we trust),” Qayyum said. He then claimed that even though “the Abdullahs are the biggest traitors of Kashmiris”, if he chooses to vote, he would do so for the NC because, “it is the lesser evil... under the current circumstances and after seeing the fall of PDP, Abdullahs will have to think a hundred times before aligning with the BJP”.

Also Watch: National Conference has realized its mistakes, says Srinagar MP | Interview

Ganderbal constituency

In Ganderbal, a constituency that is no less than a family heirloom for the Abdullahs, many agree that the NC is set to form the government but, interestingly, they also openly express their reservations about voting for Omar.

Since 1977, with the exception of the 2002 assembly polls, the NC has always won the Ganderbal seat.

The party’s founder, Sheikh Abdullah, still a widely respected figure across J&K, had won the seat in 1977 and Omar’s father, Farooq, won it in 1983, 1987 and 1996. Omar’s assembly poll debut in 2002, months after he had assumed the NC’s presidency, however, began with a shock defeat from Ganderbal against an electoral lightweight, the PDP’s Qazi Afzal. The taint of continuing to be a minister in the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre despite the anti-Muslim communal pogrom that had broken out in BJP-ruled Gujarat earlier that year had contributed to Omar’s electoral drubbing.

In 2008 (the J&K assembly then had a six-year tenure), Omar managed to avenge the loss from Ganderbal and went on to become J&K’s chief minister. Now, 16 years and a humiliating Lok Sabha poll defeat later, Omar is back to trying his luck from Ganderbal but, perhaps, even he realises that his victory from the constituency that elected his father and grandfather before him is not assured.

Officially, Omar has maintained that his decision to contest the ongoing polls from both Ganderbal and Budgam was a “tactical move”.

The bolt of losing the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat to Engineer Rashid, whose incarceration in Delhi Tihar Jail at the time had triggered a wave of electoral support for the AIP chief, perhaps, taught Omar to be cautious in the assembly polls. When another jailed Hurriyat leader and Islamic cleric Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, popularly called Sarjan Barkati, decided to file his nomination from the Ganderbal seat, Omar saw a “BJP conspiracy” against him and, after initially hinting at contesting from the Beerwah assembly seat he had last won in 2008, finally chose the Budgam constituency as his second poll turf.

But it isn’t merely Barkati’s entry into the Ganderbal poll arena that has turned this Abdullah stronghold into an unreliable poll turf for Omar. While it is true that the NC leader faces a multi-cornered contest in Ganderbal from rivals such as Barkati, the PDP’s Bashir Mir, former NC MLA Ishfaq Jabbar, Ganderbal Congress chief Sahil Farooq (Jabbar and Farooq are both contesting as independents) and Sheikh Ashiq of the AIP, his difficulties in the constituency, which voted on September 25, are also of his own making.

Also read: J-K pre-poll alliance with Congress to avoid hung Assembly: Omar Abdullah

No emotional connect

“The Abdullahs think Ganderbal, like the rest of Kashmir, are their personal property. They come here every election and expect people will just vote for them. We have high regard for Sheikh Abdullah; he was a true leader but what have Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah done for us... you call this a VIP constituency but in most parts of this seat or in other areas of Ganderbal district, we don’t even have proper roads, water supply, electricity supply, even a hospital... this is what the Abdullahs have given us in return for out vote,” said Wahid Mir (44), a resident of Ganderbal’s Rampora neighbourhood.

An NC worker from the Ganderbal district told The Federal, on condition of anonymity, that many voters saw Omar as “an arrogant and inaccessible politician with no emotional connect to the people of Ganderbal”.

“You can’t come here during elections, just hold out your cap and say my fate is in your hands and then expect people to vote for you... those days are gone and so has the popularity that the Abdullah surname carried; don’t forget this is the first election in 10 years and more than that, it has been nearly double that time since Omar saheb represented Ganderbal; thousands of new voters have joined the voter list in this time and none of them are beholden to Omar Abdullah,” this NC worker said.

He added, “I also think it is a mistake that Omar saheb is contesting from two seats... Ganderbal voters don’t know whether he will keep this seat or Budgam if he wins both; earlier also he gave away Ganderbal to Ishfaq Jabbar... some may even think, he is winning from Budgam anyway, so let’s vote for Mir or Barkati”.

A large part of Omar’s poll campaign is devoted to dubbing his opponents as proxies of the BJP, or in the case of the PDP, accusing the party of giving the BJP the levers of power in J&K due to the Mufti-BJP alliance of 2014. While this narrative does have many takers, it hasn’t convinced everyone that the Abdullahs would not “deal” with the BJP in the future.

“Today they are accusing Mehbooba Mufti of strengthening the BJP because of an alliance; Omar is giving BJP proxy certificates to Engineer Rashid, Sajad Lone and anyone else who opposes the NC but they (the Abdullahs) were the ones who always put Delhi’s and their own personal interests above those of the Kashmiris... Omar became a minister in the NDA government (of Atal Behari Vajpayee) and Farooq Abdullah spared no effort to justify that alliance; today they are saying they will never align with the BJP again but see their track record... the Abdullahs will ally with anyone who gives them power,” pointed out Mubashir Ahmad, a shikara owner at Srinagar’s Dal Lake.

Ahmad said voting for the NC in the ongoing elections shows the “majboori” (helplessness) and not “chaahat” (desire) of Kashmiris who want to “keep the BJP away at any cost”. “The mandate is not for the Abdullahs, it is against the BJP... the Abdullahs will benefit only because we have no one else to turn to (hamare paas aur koi option nahi hai),” Ahmad added.