Nitish’s caste census gambit may damage BJP’s Hindutva agenda

The three — Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad, Janata Dal-United (JD-U) leader Nitish Kumar and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav — have found a common ground in the social justice plank to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha battle.

It is their firm belief that Mandal politics alone will be able to counter the BJP’s aggressive Hindutva agenda and stop the saffron expansion in northern India. So, it has become imperative for them to push for a caste census plan so that the majority of the nearly 80 per cent of backward castes do not get swayed by the Hindutva upsurge.

The caste census issue had also found favours from DMK leader MK Stalin and Left parties while Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, at an election rally in Madhya Pradesh, had promised to conduct a caste census if voted to power. Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee may not go for it given the ideological perspective of politics in West Bengal but for many states in the cow belt, it will be an effective tool to challenge the saffron forces.

Caste factor

Caste equations are a must to win elections in almost every state but nowhere it is so pronounced than in Bihar and, with some exceptions, in Uttar Pradesh, where the buzzword for all political parties is “social engineering”, which, they believe, can deliver the desired results. That is why the political parties prefer the “caste only” formula in the selection of the candidates.

The backward castes are referred to as Other Backward Class (OBCs) in other parts of the country but they are divided into two segments in Bihar – Annexure One comprising nearly 120 Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and Annexure Two consisting of four Backward Castes.

The caste census and reservation in private sector jobs have been the major tool for the political parties pursuing social justice politics to elicit support ever since the Mandal Commission report giving reservations to the backward castes was implemented in 1990.

The last caste-based census was carried out in 1931. Since then, concerted demands have been made for carrying out a census of individual castes. In 2011, the Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) was conducted by the Centre across India after a gap of 80 years. However, the SECC data was not released to the public.

Consistent in actions

Nitish Kumar has been consistent in his actions in ensuring reservation for the backward castes, Dalits, and women. He has already given 33 percent reservation for women in the Panchayat bodies and set up a Mahadalit Commission to give push to the various welfare schemes for the Scheduled Castes.

In 2015, Nitish Kumar, who had broken ties with the BJP, sought publication of the findings of the SECC and alleged that the caste data of nearly 80 percent of the population had been held back by the Narendra Modi government cleverly to reduce the quota for the reserved classes in future.

The Bihar chief minister had initiated the caste census exercise a few months before he broke the alliance with the BJP in August 2022. The enumeration began in January 2023. In fact, the caste-based census has been completed but it has not been made public due to the ongoing legal battle.

Several petitions challenging the caste census were filed in the Patna High Court. It was stayed by the high court on May 4 but another high court bench allowed the Bihar government to go ahead with the survey on August 1. It was again challenged in the Supreme Court on August 3. The Centre filed an affidavit on August 28 but the final judgment is awaited.

BJP view

The BJP had earlier supported the caste census move in the all-party meeting as well as in the state assembly but it changed the approach when it sensed that the ruling coalition in Bihar was gaining momentum from the caste-based survey. The BJP now argues that the exercise would damage the state's social fabric.

The political move played by Nitish Kumar has turned the BJP fidgety since it has the potential to provide electoral dividends to parties pursuing caste identity politics. The marginalized groups among the EBCs may assume a new group identity after the caste data is released. This will enable the RJD and JD-U to counter the BJP strategy to influence the non-Yadav backward castes.

To give a push to his caste census agenda, Nitish Kumar also questioned the Narendra Modi government over the inordinate delay being made in starting the decadal census, which was due in 2021 but postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bihar chief minister blamed the Centre, saying it has time for everything but not for caste survey and census — which should have been completed long back.

The caste dynamics have moved a full circle after the alliance between JD-U and RJD was forged in August 2022. The RJD-JD-U combine now has the support of the ‘kulaks’ among the backward and extremely backward castes as the Mandal consolidation has been induced by the caste census.

Nitish Kumar is confident of his vote base among the EBCs, which constitute nearly 30 percent of the total population, and 16 percent SC votes as per the 2001 census. On the other hand, Lalu Prasad, whose party ruled Bihar for 15 years on the back of Muslim-Yadav combination, has unveiled plans to consolidate his EBC and Dalit vote bank.

Nitish’s calculation

However, ever since Nitish Kumar quit the NDA to pursue his hidden prime ministerial ambitions, his political graph started falling and he lost the unflinching support of the upper castes. Initially, the NDA was not merely a seat-sharing political coalition but a social alliance of different caste groups unhappy with the RJD. While the BJP brought with it the disenchanted upper castes, the JD-U added the support of non-Yadav backward castes, EBCs and backward Muslims.

Aware of the political clout of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar among the backward castes, the Bihar BJP has been trying to drive a wedge into the hitherto cohesive backward castes bloc and rope in the smaller sections among them. The appointment of Samrat Chaudhary as the state BJP president is aimed at eliciting the crucial votes of the Kushwaha (Koeri) caste, which has hitherto remained with the JD-U leader.

Of late, a number of BJP leaders do not miss an opportunity to project their caste identity by declaring themselves as leaders of backward or extremely backward castes. The state BJP too has started projecting many backward caste leaders and giving them their due place in the refurbished state organisation.

Moreover, the BJP is banking on the recommendations of the commission headed by Justice G Rohini, a retired chief justice of the Delhi High Court. The commission was set up in October 2017 to examine the present categorization of the OBCs and suggest measures for equitable distribution of reservation benefits.

Opposition strategy

In 2019, the NDA had won 39 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar but it was then led by Nitish Kumar. While JD-U won 16 seats, the BJP had garnered 17 seats while the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) led by former union minister Ram Vilas Paswan won six seats. Together, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh accounted for 104 seats, almost a third of BJP’s total tally.

The BJP is left with only 17 seats besides six seats of the LJP. However, the differences between union minister Pashupati Nath Paras, younger brother of Ram Vilas Paswan, and Chirag Paswan may confuse the voters of Paswans’ (Dusadhs) caste.

The ‘one against one’ strategy to field one opposition candidate against a BJP candidate on at least 450 Lok Sabha seats is expected to be complied with in letter and spirit in Bihar because the RJD, JD-U, Congress and the Left parties are in perfect coordination.

The 2024 election is poised to make or mar the future of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ambitions of regional satraps like Nitish Kumar hoping to register their presence at the national level. But post-NDA split in Bihar, the political scenario has gone for a toss and the fact remains that caste can never be buried in Bihar.