Bihar: Will Nitish do another somersault and anoint his son as JDU successor?

In Bihar's volatile political theatre, Nitish Kumar is all set for another flip-flop. Wait, this time, it's not alliance hopping but making his son Nishant — who seemed reticent until recently — his political heir. The buzz is that come Holi, Nishant Kumar will make his political plunge. For a leader who has been taunting his political opponents for their dynasty politics, this could be another somersault, but then Nitish is being just Nitish — ideology, and past statements don't matter; it's all about political convenience.

Though party leaders and workers want Nishant Kumar to join the party soon and take over the Janata Dal (United) mantle ahead of the Assembly elections slated later this year, Nitish is maintaining a stoic silence in what many interpret as his nod to his engineer-son's political plunge and further ascension. Observers say the only question seems to be when: sooner or later, Nitish has to make the call. Interestingly, the move comes amid reports of Nitish's failing health.

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“Some party leaders, including MLAs, have publicly asked Nishant to join the party,” a senior JD(U) functionary, close to Nitish since the late 90s, told The Federal.

“There is a clamour for Nishant. This signals a positive mood for him. But only Nitish Kumar will decide on this,” he said.

Another JD-U leader, a former minister, told The Federal that a majority of party MLAs, roughly 30 of 45, want Nishant to join the JD-U to strengthen it post-Nitish era. But there is a twist.

'Chances for party getting split'

Analysts say the sooner he takes the call, the better for the party to keep its brood intact. Some hint at the party's split in the worst-case scenario. If that happens, then ally BJP will benefit, which many in the party are averse to, while some seem to be in favour as well.

Sources in the know say not everyone in JD(U) is happy with Nishant’s entry. “They have been trying to play politics to block his entry to safeguard their own interest,” a party source said. Some leaders are said to be close to JD(U) ally BJP, which wants to "subsume the JD(U)" once Nitish is no longer in the scene.

“If Nishant takes the lead, the JD-U will survive and won’t split,” said the source.

'Nishant is no Priyanka'

Patna-based political analyst DM Diwakar, who has closely observed Nitish Kumar’s political trajectory since the mid-1980s, too believes Nishant Kumar’s entry into politics will play a crucial role in securing the support of the Kurmi community, Nitish’s core caste vote bank.

Ironically, in 2022, when Nitish was heading the JD-U-RJD alliance in Bihar, he publicly announced his old-time friend Lalu’s son Tejashwi Yadav, who had served as his deputy twice as his successor. But Nishant's name never cropped up.

JD-U leaders recalled that even last year, some senior JD-U leaders demanded that Nishant be brought into politics to strengthen the party, but again, no firm decision was made.

But Diwakar said Nitish-Nishant had taken too much time to decide on politics. “If he had done this when RJD's Tejashwi Yadav (Lalu Prasad's son) or LJP's Chirag Paswan (Ram Vilas Paswan's son) joined politics, Nishant might be a challenger now. Tejashwi has moved ahead and learnt a lot of realpolitik,” he said.

''Nishant is not going to be Priyanka Gandhi,” said Diwakar, a former director of the AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies in Patna.

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It is known that some relatives of Nitish are trying to make a case for Nishant.

If and when Nishant takes the plunge, it will end years of speculation on who will take up Nitish’s mantle and guide the JD(U) – a party that has remained relevant for over two-and-a half decades in Bihar politics.

'Long votary against dynasty politics'

There are other political repercussions as well. It will also give rise to another political family in Bihar’s politics, diluting the JD(U)'s ranting against “dynastic politics”, a stick often used to beat Lalu's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

So far, Nitish Kumar has been a vocal critic of 'parivaarvad' (dynastic politics) and has often taken pride in claiming that no one from his family is involved in politics, unlike others.

However, Satyanarayan Madan, an activist who has closely followed Nitish since his Janata Party days, believes that Nishant Kumar, Nitish’s son, may eventually enter politics.

Madan argues that Nitish has a history of compromising on his earlier stances, including his opposition to dynastic politics.

“It is wrong to portray Nitish as a man of unwavering principles. If he can switch alliances to stay in power, why wouldn’t he pave the way for his son to join politics? As a father, he might now need to secure his son’s future,” Madan said.

He added, “Nitish is not in the best of health, and his political credibility and popularity are declining. This is a challenging phase for him. He might nominate Nishant as an MLC to provide him a safe entry into politics. However, it’s unrealistic to assume that Nishant could replace Nitish anytime soon. Becoming a leader or chief minister is a significant challenge, and it won’t be easy for Nishant to achieve that in the near future.”

Nishant's sudden U-turn

Until last year, he claimed that he had chosen a spiritual path and had no interest in politics, although his father is one of India’s most seasoned politicians, a former Union minister who has ruled Bihar since 2005 except for a few months in 2014. Now, the same Nishant who used to keep a distance from the media has started to interact with journalists often.

Last month, Nishant caused a mini tremor when he publicly demanded that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance should project his father as the chief ministerial candidate in 2025. It was his first major political statement. In no time, colourful posters and banners sprang up near the JD-U office in Patna in support of Nishant.

Another political watcher said that while Nishant may be politically naïve, he has tried to play the ''development card'' to elicit support for his father.

Sooner or later? The buzz grows

This led to further speculation that Nishant might finally join JD(U) around Holi, on March 14. But another JD-U leader told The Federal that Nishant will join the party in early 2026 even if he remains active during elections this year.

"If Nishant joins the party ahead of elections, it will give a chance to the RJD to embarrass and attack Nitish for his double standards on dynastic politics,” another party leader said.

Bihar’s political families

If Nishant does join politics, he will follow the path of RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, LJP’s Chirag Paswan and Bihar minister Santosh Suman, elder son of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, now a Union minister. There are over a dozen such political families in the state.