Is Myanmar breaking apart? Refugee influx surges in Mizoram as rebels stun military

Is Myanmar at the risk of breaking apart?

This view has gained further traction after the “1027-type” coordinated offensive by anti-Junta forces spread to the country's western frontier, bordering India, inflicting a fresh setback to the beleaguered military regime.

Combined forces of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Chin National Army (CNA) and the Chin Defence Force (CDF), a civilian armed resistance group, have taken control of a vast swathe of areas in the country’s Chin state, battling the military since Sunday, according to reports from Myanmar.

Two camps of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar army) at Khawmawi and Rihkhawdar in Chin state adjoining Mizoram were taken over by the combined anti-Junta forces on Monday, said sources in Indian security forces privy to the ongoing developments.

They say the Rihkhawdar camp fell in the morning while the Khawmawi camp was overrun in the evening.

The fighting continued through Tuesday as the anti-Junta forces were trying to “liberate” the entire area along the India-Myanmar border where Tatmadaw has two more camps.

The latest unrest began when the rebels launched an attack in northern Shan state bordering China on October 27 and named the offensive “Operation 1027” after the date on which it was unleashed.

Myanmar soldiers

The Inspector General of Police (Headquarters) of the Mizoram Police, Lalbiakthanga Khiangte, said the CNA flag was seen flying high in the ‘liberated areas’ such as Khawmawi village, which is at the entrance of Myanmar from Mizoram.

The offensive has triggered a fresh wave of influx of refugees from Myanmar to Mizoram. Escaping rebel attacks, 42 Myanmar soldiers too have crossed over to Mizoram in the past two days.

Three soldiers reached the state’s Zokhawthar Police station on Tuesday while 39 reached there on Monday night, police sources said.

Following the Union home ministry’s instruction, they were handed over to the Assam Rifles that guards the India-Myanmar border, the IGP said.

The Assam Rifles handed over the 39 soldiers to the Myanmar army via Moreh in Manipur. Moreh shares a border with Tamu, which is in the Sagaing region of north-west Myanmar.

The three soldiers, who arrived a day later, will be handed over on Wednesday.

Military setbacks

At least eight people, a civilian (refugee) and seven armed members of the combined anti-Junta forces, were killed in the offensive.

There has been no information about the casualties on the Tatmadaw side but it is suspected to be high.

At least 21 people were injured in the clash. Except for one, all the injured are KIA, CAN and CDF militants. Seven of them were referred to Aizawl for treatment while the rest were being treated at the Champhai district hospital.

Fleeing villagers who took refuge in Mizoram said Myanmar air force planes and helicopters attacked the villages in the vicinity of the military camps attacked by the militants.

The joint attacks of two ethnic rebel outfits and a pro-democracy civilian volunteer force proved to be too powerful for the military.

The military junta has lost control over several towns and over hundred security outposts in Shan, Kayah, Rakhine and Chin states and Sagaing region and also a key trade route with China.

It started suffering major reverses ever since three ethnic militant groups — the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) — began coordinated attacks after forming a military coalition called Three Brotherhood Alliance.

Military’s fears

The People's Defense Force (PDF) of the National Unity Government, a shadow government-in-exile formed by members of Myanmar parliament ousted by a military coup on February 1, 2021, pledged its support and participation in the operations.

They first launched the attack in northern Shan state bordering China on October 27 and named the offensive “Operation 1027” after the date it began.

The operation was then expanded to other areas as the allied Kachin Independence Army, Bamar People’s Liberation Army, Arakan Army and Chin National Defence Force emulated the strategy to jointly fight the Junta, posing the most forceful challenge to the military regime since it seized power two years ago.

Fighting has also erupted in another western state of Rakhine since Monday. Media reports in Myanmar quoting AA said Junta’s troops and Rakhine state police abandoned nearly 40 positions, leading to surrender and capture of many Junta soldiers and commanders with weapons.

“If the government does not effectively manage the incidents happening in the border region, the country will be split into various parts," Myint Swe, president of the military-ruled Myanmar, was quoted by the media as saying at a national defence and security council meeting last week.