Why Mamata should think before distancing Congress, upsetting INDIA bloc’s apple cart

Two closed-door meetings held last week were indications of Trinamool Congress firming up its decision of not joining hands with the Congress ahead of 2024 elections even if that ultimately helps the BJP.

TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee reportedly finalised the party’s candidate for the Darjeeling Lok Sabha seat at a meeting with Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM) president Anit Thapa in Kolkata last weekend.

The BGPM is a TMC ally that runs the Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA). Thapa is the chief executive of the semi-autonomous body.

Gorkhas' disillusionment with BJP

Darjeeling is one of the seats in Bengal that the Congress is eyeing since it got a major shot in the arm after former GTA chief Binay Tamang joined the party in November last year.

Besides, several hill-based parties and leaders that earlier backed the BJP, rallied behind the Congress at a citizen convention in Darjeeling, November last. They felt that the Congress was more sympathetic to the Gorkha cause than the BJP.

The Darjeeling Gorkha Hill Council and the Gorkhaland Territorial Administration were formed in 1988 and 2012, respectively, during the tenure of the Congress governments, they recalled. The Gorkha leaders alleged that the hills did not get desired support from the BJP despite backing it for the past 15 years.

The BJP had been winning the Darjeeling seat with the help of the Gorkha parties since 2009.

“We have now decided to support the Congress because it’s more compassionate to our cause than the BJP or any other party,” Hamro Party president Ajoy Edwards told The Federal.

The withdrawal of support of prominent Gorkha leaders from the BJP was seen as a major blow for the saffron party.

TMC’s Ekla Cholo Re plan

The equation could however change if there is a triangular contest, which seems likely following last week’s TMC-BJPM meeting.

“The BJP will be in a tight-spot if there is a larger alliance against it in the hills. But in case of a three-cornered intense contest, the BJP might get an edge over others,” said political commentator and author Nirmalya Banerjee.

In a similar development, TMC leader from Assam Sushmita Dev last week flew down to Kolkata to devise her party’s strategy to go solo even in the northeastern state. She held meeting with Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) – the TMC’s poll strategy planner – last Wednesday to fine tune her party's ekla- cholo-re plan, sources told The Federal.

The TMC is part of the Congress-helmed 15-party alliance, the United Opposition Forum, in Assam. But the party finds itself isolated in Assam following its earlier unilateral announcement not to have any truck with the Congress in Bengal.

“You can understand our position in the wake of the TMC rejecting any possibility of an alliance with the Congress in Bengal,” Assam Pradesh Congress president Bhupen Borah said, hinting a rethink in party’s decision to make the West Bengal’s ruling party a part of the larger opposition alliance in the state.

Congress still positive about alliance

The Congress high-command in public, however, is trying to put up a show of normalcy. Addressing a press conference in Jharkhand on Tuesday (February 6), Rahul Gandhi claimed that seat-sharing talks with the TMC are not yet over and that Mamata Banerjee is still an important leader of the INDIA alliance.

Despite such claims, the Congress too appears to be losing hope as was evident from its decision to make West Bengal PCC chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury chairman of the party’s 24-member Pradesh Election Committee (PEC).

The TMC has been blaming Chowdhury for rocking the INDIA alliance in Bengal. By appointing him as the chief of the state’s poll panel, ignoring the TMC’s antagonism, the Congress seems to have sent a message to Banerjee and her party.

With both parties now digging in their heels, any chance of a seat-sharing arrangement between the Congress and the TMC in Bengal is almost over.

Why TMC, Congress didn’t get along?

For the current situation, the TMC is largely to be blamed since it is the one to first call off the deal. True, Chowdhury with his constant anti-TMC tirades played a killjoy. But the Congress top leadership, including Rahul, was constantly sending olive branches to the TMC. That should have mattered more for the Trinamool than the diatribes of Chowdhury.

The haste with which Banerjee junked the Congress’ seat-sharing offer even before properly discussing it gives an impression that her party was waiting for an opportunity to distance itself from the Congress and the INDIA alliance.

As early as mid-January she refused to meet the Congress’s five-member national alliance committee that had been holding seat-sharing talks with the INDIA alliance partners.

The TMC sources said the deal was closed after the Congress turned down its offer of two out of the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats. The offer was made in December.

The seats the TMC was willing to concede were Baharampur and Malda South. The party argued that these were the only two constituencies where the Congress emerged victorious fighting alone in 2019.

The Congress does not buy the argument as it feels political dynamics and ground realities in Bengal have drastically changed in the past couple of years.

Many TMC leaders got embroiled in a series of alleged scams within months of the party-led government assuming power for the third consecutive term in May 2021.

Conspiracy theories

The TMC is still a formidable force in the state. But there are signs of disenchantment against the party among the middle-class (because of the alleged corruption) and Muslims (largely because of political violence).

The state’s 27 per cent Muslim votes have been playing a pivotal role in the TMC’s electoral victories since 2011.

Any major shift of minority votes away from the TMC could thus severely harm the party’s electoral prospects in the ensuing parliamentary elections. Hence, it should be extra careful not to be seen as a party directly or indirectly bolstering the BJP.

The grapevine is already buzzing with a political conspiracy theory that the TMC has entered into a tacit understanding with the BJP to shield its top leadership from corruption charges.

"Kolkata is agog with apprehension of a ‘setting’. Which means a secret understanding between Modiji and Mamata, whereby the thieves of Trinamool and/or the murderers of BJP workers would go scot-free. Please convince us that there would be no such ‘setting,’" former Meghalaya governor and senior BJP leader Tathagata Roy had tweeted not too long ago.

The TMC’s tough posturing against the Congress and the INDIA alliance is fraught with the risk of adding fuel to the “setting” rumours and that might not go very well with the minorities.