Which TMC is the real TMC? Symbol battle heats up Bengal by-polls

West Bengal’s October 6 Assembly by-elections in Nandigram and Rejinagar may not alter the balance of power in the state, but they could offer an early indication of how its politics will evolve under the BJP regime.

The most consequential pointer would be the contours of Opposition politics, as the bypolls could throw up some definitive clues about who could dominate the anti-BJP space ahead of the next major test in the civic body elections due in November-December this year.

TMC factions' fight

The foremost development to watch in the Opposition camp, of course, would be which Trinamool Congress (TMC) faction gets to contest the elections under its iconic twin-flower symbol.

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The Election Commission (EC) will hear the rival TMC factions led by Mamata Banerjee and Ritabrata Banerjee separately on Saturday (September 12), on their claims to the party name, organisation and symbol.

The timing makes the dispute particularly important. The nomination deadline is September 16, leaving only four days between the hearing and the end of the nomination process.The Commission’s decision will be crucial because the twin-flower symbol is central to the TMC’s electoral identity and voter recognition.

It could determine which faction contests the bypolls as the TMC, while the other may have to seek a different electoral identity.

If the Ritabrata faction loses the TMC name and twin-flower symbol, it could find it more difficult to convince voters that it represents the original party in any manner, particularly in a bypoll to be fought within a short time.

Ritabrata's offer to Mamata

For the Mamata faction, even without the party name and symbol, she would remain the TMC’s most recognisable face, but would have to rebuild the party’s brand and electoral identity afresh without its organisational assets and financial resources.

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The question would then be whether Mamata’s personal charisma alone can carry the TMC vote, or whether the party’s established brand and organisational machinery matter more than the image of an individual leader.

There is another possibility of the Commission freezing the symbol in the interim, in which case both factions would have to seek new symbols and build their electoral identities around them.

Even before the EC settles the dispute, Ritabrata has sought to put Mamata in a difficult political position over Nandigram. He told reporters on Friday ( September 11) that his faction would not field a candidate against her if she contests the seat, which was vacated by Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari after he won it again in the 2026 Assembly election.

The offer is not about avoiding a division of votes. It puts Mamata in a difficult position in a constituency where she lost to Adhikari in 2021.

If Mamata contests, the rebels can claim to have forced her back into Nandigram. If she stays away, they can portray her as unwilling to take up the fight in Adhikari’s stronghold, while Adhikari himself defeated her in her home turf of Kalighat in the 2026 Assembly election.

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The BJP has welcomed the prospect, with party leader Sajal Ghosh suggesting that the party would be happy to defeat her again.

Kunal Ghosh, spokesperson for the Mamata camp, maintained that voters remained with her and that the TMC would contest the bypolls, but declined to say who would be the party’s candidates in the two seats. “Mamata Banerjee will take the decision on the candidates, and it will be conveyed at the appropriate time,” he said.

Beyond the TMC’s internal battle and the Ritabrata camp’s challenge over Nandigram lies the larger question of whether Opposition parties can stitch together some form of alliance to make the bypolls less fragmented than the Assembly elections.

TMC-Congress alliance?

The April-May contest was largely four-cornered, with the TMC, BJP, Congress and Left Front vying against one another.

The fragmentation of the anti-BJP vote worked to the saffron party’s advantage in several minority-dominated constituencies.

It is learnt that the TMC, which was strongly opposed to an alliance with the Congress before its Assembly defeat, is now exploring an understanding with the grand old party, particularly in minority-dominated Rejinagar.

The state Congress, however, is not very keen.

The TMC finished third in Rejinagar in the Assembly election with 17.43 per cent of the vote, while the BJP was second with 27.02 per cent. The seat was won by Humayun Kabir of the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) with 51.62 per cent and a margin of 58,876 votes.

Kabir had to vacate Rejinagar after also winning from Nowda, and his son Golam Nabi Azad has now entered the bypoll.

Kabir has appealed to the TMC, Congress and Left to unite behind his son.

More than an alliance, the indication is that the Opposition parties are keen to test their own strength, so much so that even the CPI(M)-led Left Front is squabbling over seat claims.

Differences among Left partners

In Rejinagar, the CPM and Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) have staked competing claims, with the RSP arguing that it has retained an organisational presence in the constituency and should be allowed to reclaim what it considers a traditional seat, according to the front sources.

The CPM, however, points to its recent electoral presence and stronger organisation.

Nandigram, too, has seen differences among the Left partners, though the situation is less contentious than in Rejinagar.

The CPI has staked its claim from the outset, having contested the seat for the front in the previous Assembly election. It remains unwilling to give up the seat and took serious exception to the CPM backing the Indian Secular Front (ISF) there in the last election, despite the CPI’s claim to the seat.

Left Front sources said the RSP was also eyeing Nandigram, suggesting that the seat-sharing issue was not entirely settled there either.

The differences prevented the Left Front from finalising its candidates for the two seats at Thursday’s meeting.

Another major Opposition player, the Congress, too, is preparing to go it alone in the bypolls.

It is particularly focused on rebuilding its organisation in Nandigram, where its candidate Sheikh Jariatul Hossain secured only 794 votes in the last Assembly election, fewer than the 919 votes polled by NOTA.

The party has begun small neighbourhood and booth-level meetings. Party observer Ranajit Mukherjee has sought to turn the contest into a broader campaign against the BJP.

“There is considerable anger among the people against the four-month-old BJP government. Our aim is to take that anger to the EVM,” he said.

BJP gives special attention to Rejinagar

With the Opposition camp appearing to remain divided, the BJP, meanwhile, is treating both bypolls as an opportunity to turn its Assembly victory into greater organisational expansion, particularly in minority areas, ahead of the civic elections.

The party is this time giving special attention to Rejinagar, where around 70 per cent of the electorate belongs to minority communities.

It has deployed several MLAs and ministers across the constituency’s organisational mandals, party sources said. A recent strategy meeting in Berhampore, chaired by organisational general secretary Amitabh Chakraborty, assigned responsibilities to Berhampore MLA Subrata Maitra, Barjora MLA Sukhen Bagdi and Beldanga MLA Bharat Jhaor, besides ministers Gourishankar Ghosh and Gargi Ghosh Das to oversee the party’s election preparedness, sources said.

State general secretary Shakharav Sarkar and district president Maloy Mahajan are among the names being discussed for the party ticket, the sources added.

In Nandigram, the BJP is treating the bypoll as a prestige contest and a test of its organisation in Adhikari’s stronghold.

Adhikari has been given charge of the party’s Tamluk organisational district, which includes the constituency, and has set a target of a substantially larger victory margin than his 9,665-vote win over the TMC.

The party is also considering Hasirani Rath, the mother of slain Adhikari aide Chandranath Rath, as a possible candidate, though no final decision has been taken, BJP sources said.

Concern over violence in Rejinagar

The two bypolls could therefore reveal more than the strength of individual candidates or parties.

For the BJP, the margins and vote shares will indicate whether its Assembly victory is translating into a stronger grassroots organisation.

For the Opposition, the more significant question is whether the contests point to new electoral equations or confirm that fragmentation remains its biggest political weakness.

Another important aspect to watch will be whether the BJP government can ensure peaceful polling. Sources said 35 companies of Central forces are likely to be deployed in Nandigram and 36 in Rejinagar, with general and police observers also appointed for the two constituencies.

The concern over violence has already surfaced in Rejinagar. A clash between TMC and AJUP supporters at Chetiyani village on Thursday (September 10) left three people injured after an alleged attack on TMC panchayat member Ajirul Sheikh.