Is West Bengal heading for President’s Rule? Big buzz after Governor rejig

With the sudden exit of C V Ananda Bose as WestBengal Governor on Thursday (March 5) evening, the talk of President’s Rule has intensified in the state.

Bose, a former administrative service officer, has been replaced by Tamil Nadu Governor R N Ravi.

Also read: CV Ananda Bose quits as Bengal Governor; Mamata says RN Ravi named without discussion

In the state’s power circles, Ravi is widely seen as politically more aligned with Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while Bose is generally considered closer to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Central rule speculations

This equation is weighing heavily in the political calculus around the possibility of placing the state under central rule, with uncertainty over the finalisation of electoral rolls due to SIR-related complications adding to the speculation.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her senior ministers already raised questions about the timing of the move and hinted at the possibility of a larger political plan.

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“Do they (central government) want to impose President’s Rule?” senior minister and Trinamool Congress spokesperson Shashi Panja asked more bluntly, adding fuel to the speculation.

It is an open secret that the West Bengal BJP’s older guards - leaders who have risen through the party ranks and maintain closer ties with the RSS - are opposed to the imposition of President’s Rule, while the party’s newer entrants, many of them turncoats from other parties, are openly pushing for central rule in the state.

BJP split on President’s Rule

For instance, the BJP’s state president, Samik Bhattacharya, a party veteran, has repeatedly expressed his reservations about invoking Article 356. “We do not want Article 356 in West Bengal…..We want the natural death of the TMC,” he once said.

On the other hand, leaders such as Suvendu Adhikari, who switched over from the TMC and is regarded within party circles as a confidant of Amit Shah, have publicly called for central rule. “Without imposing President’s rule, holding elections in Bengal is impossible,” Adhikari said at a recent rally.

Also read: Bengal Guv Ananda Bose's abrupt exit after enrolling as Bengal voter baffles many

“President’s Rule will be imposed if a new government is not sworn in by midnight on May 5,” another BJP leader outside the party’s old guard and fashion-designer-turned-politician, Agnimitra Paul, said. Earlier, she had also demanded President’s Rule, alleging a breakdown of law and order in the state.

The pro-central rule faction within the BJP believes that the current uncertainty over the preparation and finalisation of electoral rolls has created a backdrop for the imposition of central rule ahead of the upcoming elections.

SIR row

The final rolls, published in late February, showed that around 63.66 lakh voters have been deleted, shrinking the electorate from roughly 7.66 crore to about 7.04 crore, while over 60 lakh electors remain in the “under adjudication” category pending judicial scrutiny of their eligibility.

Only a fraction of these contentious adjudication cases, about 6.5 lakh, have so far been cleared by judicial officers, leaving the fate of the vast majority still unresolved.

The adjudication process could take several more weeks.

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In the meantime, all of the state’s major non-BJP parties have stepped up their demands that the election schedule should not be announced until the pending adjudications are resolved, arguing that holding polls with so many names in limbo would undermine the credibility of the process.

On the other hand, if the announcement is delayed until all adjudicated cases are cleared, it could make it impossible to form a new government by the mandated May 7 deadline, potentially clearing the way for the imposition of President’s Rule.

Ravi’s governance

Given Ravi’s track record as governor, where he has not hesitated to go all out in confronting state governments in Tamil Nadu and Nagaland, sources in the state’s political corridors suggest he is viewed as better positioned to occupy the Lok Bhavan (earlier Raj Bhavan) at this critical juncture.

Also read: TN Governor RN Ravi walks out of Assembly, yet again, amid anthem row

“RN Ravi is very much part of the Modi ec(h)osystem. But he had to be moved out of Nagaland because of the style of his functioning. He moved to Tamil Nadu where he has been a perfect disgrace. Now he is shifted to West Bengal where he is guaranteed to make a nuisance of himself! (sic),” Congress leader Jairam Ramesh posted on X, almost reiterating a sentiment prevalent in the state’s political and power circles.

By contrast, Bose, though also known to confront the state government, had recently moderated his stance, adopting a more measured approach that alienated him from a faction of the state BJP leadership, largely composed of newer entrants.