Why a Haryana win could give BJP a solid edge against JMM in Jharkhand

Boosted by its stunning showing in Haryana, where it appears to have outclassed a resurgent Congress, the BJP can be substantially confident about the upcoming Assembly elections in Jharkhand.

The BJP’s optimism could rest on the fact that the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is now a divided house, and the Congress, the junior partner in the alliance with the JMM, is unlikely to post a major challenge, particularly after its dramatic defeat in Haryana where it had been widely poised to win.

Regional parties

The poor performance of the regional parties this time — the AIP and PDP in Jammu and Kashmir and the INLD and JJP in Haryana — could also indicate a trend favourable to larger, national parties. If it becomes a pan-India trend, it could spell trouble not only for the JMM in Jharkhand but also for the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and AAP in Delhi.

Also read: Jharkhand | Why BJP is eyeing Kolhan region ahead of Assembly elections

In Jharkhand, BJP leaders also take comfort from their party’s victory in the Lok Sabha battle, when it bagged eight seats and its ally the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) got one seat. The JMM and Congress won three and two seats, respectively.

This was in contrast to Haryana, where the BJP and the Congress shared the 10 Lok Sabha seats equally.

No smooth sail for Soren

Although Hemant Soren, son of JMM founder Shibu Soren, is back in the saddle as Chief Minister after spending five months in prison on alleged corruption charges, party leaders admit the going won’t be easy in the Assembly contest.

Political sources say the BJP’s aim is to split the tribal vote and consolidate the non-tribal vote as it attempts to cruise to electoral victory.

Hemant Soren resigned as chief minister on January 31 this year ahead of his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate and anointed Champai Soren, a veteran in Jharkhand’s tribal politics, to succeed him.

Also read: After general election setback, BJP banking on smaller allies for Jharkhand Assembly polls

But the arrangement collapsed when Hemant reclaimed the CM's post after his release after five months, leaving Champai to complain that he was humiliated. He then embraced the BJP, delivering a body blow to the JMM just ahead of the Assembly elections.

Election timing

The 81-member Jharkhand Assembly’s tenure ends in January 2025. Hemant Soren wants the elections by December, but the Election Commission has not indicated when these will be held.

Already, the BJP has gone on the offensive in the tribal state. It has vowed to implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Jharkhand, alleging that the JMM has allowed infiltrators from Bangladesh and Myanmar to grab tribal land in the state.

The JMM has denied the charge, and has accused the BJP and the RSS of trying to engineer communal disturbances in the state where the tribal population accounts for 27 per cent.

The BJP has also promised Rs 2,100 a month to all women in Jharkhand above the age of 18 – a major jump over the Rs 1,000 the JMM government now gives – as well as two free cooking gas cylinders a year to families below the poverty line.

Seat-sharing

BJP leaders say the party will contest 68-71 Assembly seats, leaving the rest to its allies, mainly the AJSU. A seat each may also be given to the Janata Dal (United) and to Chirag Paswan. Both are BJP allies in neighbouring Bihar.

Besides the internal squabbling in the JMM and the Congress in Jharkhand, the grand old party has been rattled by its most unexpected defeat in Haryana where, to take forward the momentum of the Lok Sabha elections, it had been confident of storming to power after a decade of BJP rule.