Chadha, others’ exit was a disaster waiting to happen for AAP

'Treachery’, ‘Operation Lotus’ and ‘betrayal’ are among the terms AAP is using to describe the exit of Raghav Chadha and six other Rajya Sabha MPs, who quit the party to merge with the BJP on Friday (April 24).

Responding to the development, party leader Sanjay Singh said, “What wasn't given to them by the public and AAP? We have been backstabbed. The people of Punjab will not forgive this treachery. They gave them their blessings but they have betrayed the trust of the people of Punjab.''

Singh accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah of unleashing “Operation Lotus” in Punjab. “They have played dirty politics to obstruct the good work done by the Bhagwant Mann government in Punjab in education, health and drinking water,” he said, accusing the BJP of misusing official machinery, including investigating agencies such as ED and CBI.

Existential crisis for AAP?

Many former and current AAP leaders believe today’s development has put the party’s existence into crisis as a high-profile breakaway threatens to hollow out its leadership. “You have to understand that this is a huge conspiracy against us (AAP). Our party's coffers have been drained. They (BJP) want to leave Kejriwal isolated,” said an AAP insider.

They mean their business. It is as simple as that. Who wants to fight Narendra Modi? Nobody. Such politicians know their profit is in joining hands, not taking punches

With key strategists, including Raghav Chadha and Sandeep Pathak, now gone, and “money bag” MPs deserting the AAP ship, the party’s "Punjab Model" is under more pressure than ever since its inception.

Former leaders who left the AAP believe Kejriwal’s decision to nominate industrialists like Vikramjit Singh Sahney and Ashok Kumar Mittal to the Rajya Sabha from Punjab was always a calculated risk that critics labelled a "ticking time bomb".

Also Read: Raghav Chadha leads AAP MPs' exit to BJP: What Anti-Defection Law’s two-thirds rule says

“When you choose moneybags over ideological foot soldiers, you are making yourself perpetually vulnerable. These people can be put under pressure from probe agencies anytime,” said a former AAP leader. The leader said that today’s AAP exodus has “panned out exactly as feared”.

“These so-called leaders lacking political roots have chosen self-preservation over party loyalty when faced with the heat of the Centre’s tactical manoeuvring. This is the bottom line,” said the former AAP leader above.

'Chadha was behind AAP's success in Punjab'

The loss of Chadha and Pathak is deeply significant for AAP, considering they were architects of the 2022 Punjab sweep. Pathak’s exit is more worrying, given that the party had placed him in a strategic role for the Delhi elections. Many call this a “strategic sweep” for the BJP ahead of next year’s Punjab and Gujarat polls.

Without Chadha and Pathak, there is currently no clear second line of command to manage micro-level booth politics or candidate selection in AAP. Also, with the exit of cash-rich businessmen, including Mittal, from the party, AAP is likely to face a resource crunch ahead of next year’s two important elections in Punjab and Gujarat, the states where it toiled to build its base.

If the top-tier leadership can walk away, the lower rungs, often more susceptible to local administrative pressure, may soon follow

Political observers believe that for a party that prides itself on "clean" but expensive high-decibel campaigning, this crisis couldn't have come at a worse time. What is multiplying the AAP’s problems today is that the party’s chief, Kejriwal, is already facing a threat from the Delhi High Court over the CBI’s liquor policy case.

“See if Kejriwal’s discharge is quashed, he will be forced to pivot from national strategist to legal defendant. This leaves the party in a headless state, with no clear interim leader capable of maintaining discipline among the rank and file,” another former AAP leader said.

Stage set for bigger split?

However, what is more worrying for the AAP is whether this is a localised split or the start of a bigger exodus.

In Delhi and Punjab, AAP MLAs and councillors are reportedly being wooed by the BJP. “If the top-tier leadership can walk away, the lower rungs, often more susceptible to local administrative pressure, may soon follow,” said a former MP from Congress.

The stark difference in today’s political landscape is that many believe in AAP’s “ideological exhaustion” and in the vulnerability of "outsider" lateral entries (businessmen) who have no appetite for a drawn-out war with the BJP-led government.

“They mean their business. It is as simple as that. Who wants to fight Narendra Modi? Nobody. Such politicians know their profit is in joining hands, not taking punches,” said a political analyst.

Now that AAP is left in a tight spot, its survival depends on whether Kejriwal can find new leadership that is both 'agencies-proof' and politically well-versed.