2026 elections: Can Modi’s early Southern foray gain dividends in TN and Kerala?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s back-to-back rallies in Kerala and Tamil Nadu this week mark an early and calculated escalation of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) campaign for the 2026 Assembly elections in two states where the party has struggled to translate rising vote share into political power.

Speaking in Thiruvananthapuram and later at Maduranthakam near Chennai, Modi attacked the ruling establishments in both states and pitched the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as an alternative. According to The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan, the speeches signal that the BJP has formally entered “an all-out political battle” in Southern states well ahead of the election cycle.

In Kerala, bigger story is different

In Kerala, the BJP’s growth has been gradual but measurable. “The vote share has steadily moved from single digits to nearly 20% in the last parliamentary election,” Srinivasan said. However, he noted that electoral gains have remained limited, with the party winning just one Lok Sabha seat and posting mixed results in recent local body elections. While the BJP’s victory in the Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation was significant, Srinivasan cautioned against overstating its impact. “It’s still a baby step. The bigger story was the UDF’s strong performance and the LDF’s decline,” he said.

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Modi’s attempt to draw parallels between the BJP’s rise in Ahmedabad in the late 1980s and its prospects in Kerala, Srinivasan argued, overlooks critical differences. “The social composition and political history of Kerala are entirely different. Comparing Gujarat and Kerala is like comparing apples and oranges,” he said, adding that the Prime Minister’s reference was more about energising party cadres than reflecting ground realities.

Momentum in Tamil Nadu

In Tamil Nadu, the political landscape appears more fluid. The reassembling of a broad NDA coalition, bringing together the AIADMK under Edappadi K Palaniswami, TTV Dinakaran’s AMMK and Anbumani Ramadoss' PMK, has altered the electoral equation. Srinivasan described the sight of rival AIADMK factions sharing a stage as “a significant political moment,” noting that the alliance potentially restores the party’s traditional caste and regional balance.

“This is a formidable alliance on paper,” Srinivasan said, while cautioning that vote transferability between long-feuding partners remains uncertain. He added that the BJP, though not the principal player in Tamil Nadu, played a key role in stitching the coalition together.

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On federal tensions, including disputes over centrally sponsored schemes, fiscal devolution and the role of Governors, Srinivasan said southern states retain narrative leverage. “When federal issues come into play, states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala have historically held the upper hand,” he said.

As the 2026 elections approach, Modi’s Southern foray suggests the BJP is prepared for a prolonged contest even if electoral breakthroughs remain far from assured.