US President Donald Trump, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, on Thursday, May 14. AP/PTI
China is perfectly positioned to play a balancing game, using its pre-eminent status vis a vis Iran, and its clout with the US, to persuade both warring parties to work out a peace deal
The Indian cricket team, for long, had the reputation of being “ferocious tigers at home, and timid mice abroad”. In a different context, this seems to be the case of US President Donald Trump during his recent visit to China. From his bombastic self, exuding hubris and dismissing his opponents with the choicest expletives, he appeared transformed into a meek, submissive and uncharacteristically quiet individual.
Also read: Trump holds off planned strikes on Iran at Arab leaders' request
And, the outcome of the summit. Nothing publicly announced except for a couple of claims about China agreeing to buy 200 Boeing aircraft, US oil and soybean. As for the Iran war, it was referred to cursorily in a few lines – key among them being that China will help resolve the conflict through diplomacy. And that China too was keen on Iran not acquiring nuclear weapons and that it was equally keen to see the Strait of Hormuz opened up.
Tenuous ceasefire
Though Trump, after returning to the US regained his gumption and threatened Iran to quickly agree to a deal saying “the clock was ticking”, it is more or less clear that China holds the key to the resolution of the Iran conflict, that has now stretched to almost three months. Though a ceasefire is in place since April 7, it is tenuous but still holding. The occasional skirmishes in the Persian Gulf, affecting international shipping, are keeping the world on the edge. Worse, the economic impact of the extended stalemate is being felt in many countries including in India.
The US President, no sooner had he returned to the US, reportedly apprised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of his discussions with Xi
What makes the Chinese offer of helping resolve the impasse significant is the fact that half of its crude is imported from Iran. And for Tehran, Beijing is its key benefactor, buying almost 80 per cent of its oil.
Also read: White House fact sheet on Trump’s China visit highlights trade deals, omits Taiwan
Xi is perfectly positioned to play a balancing game, use his pre-eminent status vis a vis Iran, and his clout with Trump to persuade both parties to work out a deal. Though China is not in any immediate danger of an economic crisis, as it is well stocked with oil and in its usage of renewable energy sources, it is in its interests too to douse the conflict before the world falls into a recession.
Trump apprises Netanyahu
Following up on the summit, the US has responded to Iran’s latest proposals in reaction to which Tehran has said it will revert soon. What precisely transpired in discussions between Trump and Xi regarding the Iran war is not yet publicly known but it is a no-brainer that the Chinese President would have asked the US president to climb down from his rigid stance of not “allowing” Iran to have nuclear weapons. China’s officially stated position is that the US and Israel should not have started the war. But now that it is done, the war must be ended quickly.
Trump, after his two-day visit to Beijing, told reporters that Iran had indicated it would halt nuclear activity for 20 years and indicated he was okay with it. But this is yet to be confirmed by Tehran.
Also read: Trump calls US-China ties ‘G-2’ after Xi meeting
The US President, no sooner had he returned to the US, reportedly apprised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of his discussions with Xi. The very fact that he had to do so means that Trump is caught between Netanyahu and the rest of the world to end the war that has been widely condemned as a meaningless conflict that serves no purpose – except the Israeli prime minister’s desire to inflict damage on Iran.
Trump has attempted to justify the US’s involvement in the military strikes on Iran on the grounds that Tehran’s nuclear programme is a threat to Americans. But, nowhere has the US president presented any evidence to this effect, in the process confirming he is fighting an Israeli war. This, among other reasons, stands out for Trump’s low popularity rating (at 32 per cent) with a majority of US citizens firmly expressing themselves against the war.
Why Trump visited China
Trump, reports said, was particularly keen on visiting China as it is only Beijing that has the wherewithal to apply pressure on Iran to meet the US’s demands mid-way. (Incidentally, during the summit, Iran and the US cleared the passage of several Chinese freight ships through the Straits of Hormuz).
Xi’s rap on the US president’s knuckle over Taiwan and Iran, when the Chinese president reportedly dismissed Trump’s request to militarily assist US forces is a sign either of Washington’s loss of clout or Beijing’s rise
The Iran war is at an impasse as for Trump, having fired first, it is important to emerge looking like a winner. His fate as an active president in the last two years of his office depends entirely on his performance in the mid-term polls later this year. And, to do well, he first has to emerge from the war “honourably”.
Trump, reacted to questions about Xi positively and said “he had really become a friend”.
But Xi, on the other hand, came across as firm and aggressive especially on the question of Taiwan – to a point where he even warned Trump that US’s moves could result in a war between Beijing and Washington.
Trump’s deference and Xi’s authoritative body language
Xi’s rap on the US president’s knuckle over Taiwan and Iran, when the Chinese president reportedly dismissed Trump’s request to militarily assist US forces is a sign either of Washington’s loss of clout or Beijing’s rise. Trump’s deference and Xi’s authoritative body language left many concluding that China had arrived as a power equalling that of the US.
True or not, there are other factors as well. It probably is not such a big surprise that Trump appeared subdued at the summit.
Trump took over office last January imagining he could dictate terms to the world. But defiance of allies like Canada and Nato colleagues in Europe including Spain, UK, France and Germany is a reality check that will take time for the US and its maverick president to digest.
