Ministers have been drafted to dismiss the rally, but the scale of the turnout, the SIR row and questions over the CEC point to a regime on the back foot
It appears that the humongous rally of Opposition parties and a cross-section of civil society and youth at Delhi’s famous Ramlila Maidan and the broad avenues that link this venue for landmark political gatherings to Connaught Place about two kilometres away have rattled the BJP and the Modi government.
BJP leaders dismiss rally as a ‘flop show’
Laughably, leading establishment figures have attempted to portray the great mobilisation of November 1 as a non-event. Members of the Modi cabinet have been drafted to run down the Opposition gathering as a “flop show”. They did themselves no credit.
Of all things, Union Home Minister Amit Shah decided to latch on to the idea of the rally being held on November 1, a date on the morrow of then PM Indira Gandhi’s assassination 42 years ago when Delhi was gripped by anti-Sikh violence. Forty-two years ago! Much has happened since then, including Congress governments in Sikh-dominated Punjab. The petty-minded thought seeks to suggest that Rahul Gandhi consciously chose that specific date to rub salt into the wounds of the Sikh community.
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It is not clear who will be taken in by such dishonest disparagement, so obviously meant to distract from the huge nature of the rally and the enormity of the Opposition’s cause to rise against the attempt to derail democracy through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process.
Of course, the live real-time images of the event disprove the BJP’s and the government’s false version comprehensively- and the nation is a witness. Even so, there is something pathetic about the self-exalted regime being gripped by the syndrome of “though vanquished, he could argue still”- the famous line from Oliver Goldsmith’s 'The Deserted Village' that refers to the sorry condition of the village schoolmaster. The poem is a comment on the passing of an era. Do we detect a sign here?
SIR row and the opposition's mobilisation
Before our very eyes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led his party to a comprehensive defeat in the 2024 Parliament election, when the BJP fell well below the halfway mark in the Lok Sabha and became a supplicant before its NDA partners. There were strong suspicions voiced in many quarters that the electronic voting machine (EVM) system was suitably manipulated, as were the voting numbers, for the ruling party’s benefit, as the instruction from the Punjab and Haryana High Court to make available videos of voting was disregarded. At the request of the Election Commission, the government just changed the rules when faced with the High Court order, and ducked the issue.
The situation has got murkier with all the SIR-related revelations. The Ramlila Maidan rally of Opposition parties and across-the-board civil society elements cutting across the urban-rural divide appears to have become a clear political factor in the run-up to the Assembly elections in several states in February 2027, most notably Uttar Pradesh.
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The rally's message is already spreading to the hinterland in the states. The SIR issue, the demand for the CEC's resignation, and allegations of Election Commission manipulation to benefit the regime and discomfit regime opponents are now more widely understood. It comes at a time of worsening life conditions for ordinary Indians in towns and in villages.
The mammoth rally, driven by massive mobilisation from all states across the country, particularly the BJP’s political heartland regions, is likely to be picked up as a warning sign by the ruling establishment.
Rahul emerges as a central figure at rally
The rally is now the talking point all round, as reports from various states suggest, and now there is no more cavilling that Rahul Gandhi, the Congress leader and the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha, has burnished his image as the central figure in the renewed push the Indian street has given the regime opponents.
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The Ramlila ground is too small to accommodate the vast numbers of village folk and town and city folk that came to the public meeting. What gave the event density, cohesion, and purposefulness was its spread across the roads leading to the Maidan, presenting a picture from the sky of a formidable phalanx, as drone images show. In the past half century this ground and its surroundings have not seen anything like the November 1 opposition mobilisation.
The huge responsive rally that Jayaprakash Narayan (JP) and leaders of the newly-formed Janata Party and its associates held in February, 1977, just weeks before the Janata would sweep to power, handing the Congress a humiliating defeat, was way smaller in scale and spread than the joint opposition rally, animated by the Congress and infused with the energy of its allies. This writer remembers the energy of the 1977 meeting, but the crowds had not spilt onto the roads then.
Young leaders, protests add to opposition mobilisation
New names like the livewire student leader Neha Bora shone at last Sunday’s rally and at the “public impeachment” of CEC Gyanesh Kumar the evening before on the lawns of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s residence, enthusing young people throughout the country to be a part of the common political effort she represents.
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The Modi regime has been on tenterhooks for the five months since July, when the streets erupted with the mobilisation of the Cockroaches, joined by Left student groups and Congress affiliates, forcing the resignation of the Union Education Minister.
This became an occurrence of singular political importance since, in the RSS-BJP canon, ministers do not bow to protest actions and are made to resign. That goes against the self-imposed protocol of appearing to be strong in order to exert total control over the levers of state power as well as civil society. Indeed, the totalitarian mind is trained and prepared to brook no dissent.
Assembly elections put opposition strategy under focus
That mould was already cracking, and the Ramlila rally has ripped it open, leading to a sense of freedom from an oppressive raj.
As the state elections loom, especially in UP, how do the RSS-BJP and the Modi government go about facing the onslaught of disgruntled Indians mobilised by its opponents on an all-in basis? This will be an important question for the next three months.
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The tactics of the latterly-inspired opposition will also be under scrutiny by observers. Does the Ramlila mobilisation have a purpose rooted in the politics of power? If so, how creative can regime opponents be in chalking up state-wise mobilisations and in striking up electoral alliances and understanding well in time to meet the election challenge?
Questions over CEC Gyanesh Kumar's role
What about Gyanesh Kumar? He has not been heard of in weeks. Will the upcoming Assembly elections be conducted under his stewardship? If so, how is the electorate expected to react after 13 crore people have already lost their right to vote, under his direction, technically speaking, but, as people suspect, under instructions from on high?
The CEC’s authority is long gone. The authority of the Prime Minister and his closest colleagues is in tatters. This is a truly unprecedented situation for India, which gives the appearance of a monolith chasing its own tail. And in the nation’s capital, as well as in the states, especially in inner RSS- BJP conclaves, there are questions, speculations galore, scenario-building exercises. Suddenly there are more questions than answers. The opposition mobilisation has arrived at exactly such a stage.
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