Is linking recent violence in Punjab to Khalistan Movement a fallacy?

In an exclusive interview with The Federal, Dr Ajay Sahni, executive director at the Institute for Conflict Management and South Asia Terrorism Portal, dissected the recent surge in violence in Punjab. He debunked fears of a resurgence of the Khalistan movement, linking the incidents to organised crime and external conspiracies rather than mass ideological mobilisation. Amid grenade blasts and targeted killings, Dr Sahni sheds light on the interplay between gangs, foreign handlers, and socio-political dynamics in Punjab.

Violence in Punjab: Gangs or Khalistan ideology?

Recent incidents in Punjab, including eight grenade attacks targeting police stations in the past month, have raised alarms. While some speculate a Khalistan resurgence, Dr Sahni clarifies, “These are not ideologically motivated cadres. Most are drug addicts, low-level gang members, or poor individuals seeking money.” He emphasised that these acts are coordinated by criminal networks funded by elements abroad, but the on-ground executors lack any real connection to Khalistani ideology.

Organised crime; role of foreign handlers

According to Dr Sahni, the planning and funding for such activities stem from a wide network of handlers abroad, including Canada, the UK, Germany, and Pakistan. “While the conspiracy is organised internationally, the execution is carried out by low-level gangsters within India,” he explained. The influx of weapons, including AK-series rifles and Glock pistols, often facilitated by drones across the border, highlights the challenge faced by intelligence agencies.

Is Punjab talking about Khalistan?

Dr Sahni also debunked claims of mass support for Khalistan within Punjab. “Very few people talk about picking up arms for Khalistan,” he said, citing the lack of widespread ideological mobilisation. He pointed out that incidents like Amritpal Singh’s brief rise to prominence were more a creation of opportunistic political elements and state agencies than genuine grassroots movements. “When Amritpal was arrested, there was no uprising—just laughter and ridicule,” he noted.

The expert dismissed claims linking farmers’ protests to the Khalistan movement, calling them outright lies. “Farmers’ unions, largely left-wing, have historically fought Khalistanis, even taking up arms against them,” he said. Attempts to discredit the farmers’ agitation by associating it with Khalistani elements were politically motivated, Dr Sahni added. “There is no connection between the two movements,” he asserted.

Punjab’s complex political landscape

Punjab’s volatile political scenario further complicates the situation. Dr Sahni criticised the divisive rhetoric and exploitation of religious and political sentiments by various parties. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), despite winning a massive mandate, is facing growing discontent due to unmet expectations. “People’s frustrations with traditional parties often manifest as votes for so-called Khalistani candidates, but this is more a slap at mainstream politics than support for separatism,” Dr Sahni explained.

Weapons and drugs continue to flow into Punjab, making law enforcement efforts increasingly complex. “Drones drop weapons daily, and caches of arms from past conflicts remain hidden across the state,” Dr Sahni said. While police and intelligence agencies have improved their detection capabilities, the influx remains a daunting challenge. “Anywhere in the world, criminals willing to exert violence will find weapons,” he added.

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