Discussion: Why Milkipur by-election is crucial for Yogi Adityanath

On The Federal's latest episode of Capital Beat, veteran journalist Sharad Pradhan and Hindustan Times consulting editor Sunita Aron joined host Neelu Vyas to discuss the high-stakes Milkipur by-election in Uttar Pradesh’s Ayodhya district. Scheduled alongside the Delhi Assembly elections on February 5, this by-election is crucial for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The panel explored whether the BJP could reclaim this seat or face further political challenges.

Milkipur’s political significance

Sharad Pradhan said, “Milkipur is not just a constituency but a symbol of BJP’s narrative in Ayodhya. Losing here could deal a significant blow to Yogi Adityanath’s standing both in the state and at the central level.” Historically, Milkipur has not been a BJP stronghold, with victories achieved only during key political waves in 1991 and 2017. Losing Milkipur could further dent the BJP’s narrative of dominance, especially after setbacks in Ayodhya during the last general election.

Challenges for BJP

Sunita Aron pointed out, “This by-election comes with its own set of challenges for the BJP. The caste dynamics and the recent setbacks in Ayodhya make this a tough battleground for the party.” While BJP managed to win seven out of nine seats in previous by-elections, Milkipur’s demographic composition — including significant Dalit and backward community presence — poses a unique challenge.

Pradhan added, “The SP’s decision to field Avdesh Prasad’s son taps into this voter base, but it also risks backlash over dynastic politics.”

Election Allegations and Tactics

Concerns about election fairness were raised by both panelists. “The manner in which the Election Commission delayed the Milkipur by-poll raises questions. The BJP’s alleged misuse of administrative machinery is a point of contention,” said Pradhan.

Aron emphasized, “Voter suppression and biased management, as seen in previous by-elections like Kundarki, could become issues here too. Akhilesh Yadav’s call for international media to observe the election is a direct response to these concerns.”

Tensions Within the BJP

Pradhan noted the internal strife within the BJP, saying, “The rumoured cold war between Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah adds another layer of complexity. This by-election could be used as a barometer for Yogi’s future within the party.”

Aron echoed this, stating, “Delhi’s central leadership may not fully back Yogi in this election, as speculation of shifting him out of Lucknow grows.”

Caste dynamics in focus

Caste politics is expected to play a defining role in Milkipur. “Dalits and backward communities are reportedly disillusioned with the BJP’s policies,” said Pradhan. Aron added, “The SP’s focus on Ambedkar’s legacy and caste census issues is strategically aimed at mobilizing these voters.”

According to Pradhan, “Milkipur’s by-election will be closely watched not just for its result, but for what it signals about Uttar Pradesh’s evolving political dynamics.” Aron concluded, “For the BJP, this is a test of its governance and Hindutva strategy. For the SP, it’s an opportunity to consolidate its base among marginalized groups.”

As polling day nears, the stakes in Milkipur continue to rise. The election’s result will not only determine the constituency’s representative but could also reshape Uttar Pradesh’s political equations, making this a pivotal moment for Yogi Adityanath and his party.

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