Maharashtra vote numbers: Election data scientist alleges manipulation

In an exclusive interview with The Federal's YouTube program Capital Beat, election data scientist Pyarelal Garg raised serious allegations regarding the recently concluded Maharashtra Assembly elections.

He claimed that vote discrepancies were observed in at least 92 constituencies, leading to an average manipulation of 26,500 votes per seat. These discrepancies, Dr Garg suggested, predominantly favoured the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Dr. Garg, a veteran election analyst, presented a detailed statistical analysis, asserting that the Election Commission of India (ECI) failed to ensure transparency in the voting and counting process. He accused the ECI of:

Inconsistent data presentation: Dr. Garg highlighted discrepancies between the voter turnout percentages released at 5:00 PM and 11:30 PM on polling day. He argued that this shift in numbers indicated potential tampering.

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Switch from raw to processed data: He noted that the data provided by the ECI was not "primary data" (raw figures of votes polled) but processed and aggregated, making it harder to verify and analyse.

Irregular hike in votes: According to Dr. Garg, the voting percentage in Maharashtra increased by a significant 7.83% after 5:00 PM — a sharp contrast to the marginal 0.86% hike observed in Jharkhand during its second phase of elections. He claimed this led to an addition of approximately 76 lakh votes across Maharashtra, heavily skewing results in favour of the NDA.

Manipulation patterns observed

Dr. Garg presented evidence suggesting that out of the 288 seats in Maharashtra, at least 100 constituencies were allegedly won by manipulation. In many cases, the margin of victory for NDA candidates was less than the number of manipulated votes. For instance, in a constituency in Aurangabad, the margin of victory was around 18,000 votes, but Dr. Garg claimed that nearly 23,000 votes had been "added" during the counting process.

"The discrepancies are not random but systematic," Dr. Garg said. "It appears the data has been tailored to suit the ruling party's advantage."

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Concerns over EVM integrity

Dr. Garg also questioned the reliability of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), stating that while the machines themselves are secure, the surrounding processes are vulnerable to manipulation. He cited instances where votes declared at the close of polling did not match those recovered from EVMs during counting.

“If EVMs are as reliable as claimed, how do we explain the sudden surge in votes and the mismatches in 92 constituencies?” he asked, adding that the issue undermines public trust in the democratic process.

Judiciary's role and public response

Dr. Garg expressed disappointment with the judiciary, alleging that it had failed to take cognizance of ECI’s non-compliance with Supreme Court directives, including video documentation of polling booths after the official voting hours. He lamented that the judiciary appeared to side with the ECI, further eroding confidence in the electoral system.

In light of these allegations, Dr. Garg called for mass public action. "The people must take to the streets to demand accountability. This is not just about one election; it's about safeguarding democracy," he asserted.

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What’s next?

Dr. Garg's claims have sparked widespread debate, with opposition parties now stepping up their criticism of the ECI. However, it remains uncertain if these allegations will lead to any legal challenges or calls for recounts.

The allegations, if proven true, raise fundamental questions about the integrity of India’s electoral process and the role of independent institutions in ensuring free and fair elections.

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