India’s population to reach 152.2 crore by 2036; gender ratio to see slight improvement

India’s population is projected to rise to 152.2 crore with a slightly improved female percentage, by 2036, says a recent report released by the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

The national census conducted in 2011 had pegged the country’s population at 121.08 crore.

More feminine population

According to the ministry’s report titled ‘Women and Men in India 2023’, the sex ratio is also expected to improve, albeit slightly, to 952 women per 1,000 men by 2036 from 943 in 2011.

This ratio, the report says, the slightly improved female percentage of 48.8 per cent from 48.5 per cent in 2011, will make the country’s population more feminine.

Last year, the United Nations had projected India’s population to touch 142.57 crore by April-end, surpassing China as the world's most populated country.

The World Population Prospects 2024 report has also projected India’s population to peak in the early 2060s at 170 crore before slumping by 12 per cent.

Number of elderly to rise

The report also says that the country’s population will have fewer people under 15 years in 2036, likely due to declining fertility.

On the other hand, the proportion of the population aged 60 years and above is anticipated to substantially increase during this period.

“It is evident that from 2016 to 2020, Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) in the age group of 20-24 and 25-29 has reduced from 135.4 and 166.0 to 113.6 and 139.6 respectively,” the report said.

Meanwhile, the report says that the ASFR for the age 35-39 for the above period has increased from 32.7 to 35.6 which shows that after settling in life, women are thinking of expanding their family.

Lower adolescent fertility rate

Adolescent Fertility Rate was 33.9 for the illiterate population whereas 11.0 for the literate in 2020.

This rate is considerably lower for even those who are literate but without any formal education (20.0) compared to illiterate women reemphasizing the importance of imparting education to women, the report said.

Age-Specific Fertility Rate is defined as the number of live births in a specific age group of women per thousand female populations of that age group.

Lower MMR likely

Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) is one of the SDG indicators and to bring it down to 70 by 2030 is explicitly laid down in SDG framework, it stated.

“Owing to ceaseless efforts by the government, India has successfully achieved the major milestone of bringing down its MMR (97/lakh live births in 2018-20), well in time and it should be possible to achieve the SDG target as well,” the report said. Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) refers to the number of women who die as a result of complications of pregnancy or childbearing in a given year per 100,000 live births in that year.

Infant Mortality Rate has been decreasing over the years for both males and females. Female IMR had always been higher than that of male but in 2020, both were equal at the level of 28 infants per 1000 live births.

The Under 5 Mortality Rate data shows that it has decreased from 43 in 2015 to 32 in 2020. So is the case for both boys and girls and the gap between boys and girls has also reduced.

Rise in LFPR

As per the Periodic Labour Force Survey, Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) of the persons aged 15 years and above has been increasing from 2017-18 onwards for both male and female population.

It is seen that male LFPR has gone from 75.8 to 78.5 during 2017-18 to 2022-23 and female LFPR has gone from 23.3 to 37 during the same period.

Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is defined as the percentage of persons in the labour force in the population.

About the study

According to a statement issued the government, the report is a comprehensive and insightful document that attempts to bring a holistic view of the situation of women and men in India and provides data on a wide range of topics such as population, education, health, participation in economy, and participation in decision-making among others.

"It presents data disaggregated by gender, urban-rural divide, and geographical region, which helps to understand the disparities that exist between different groups of women and men," the statement said.

The publication includes important indicators as derived from published official data of different ministries, departments and organisations.

"By examining various socio-economic indicators, the publication offers some analysis of trends over time, thereby enabling policymakers, researchers, and the general public to make informed decisions and contribute to the development of gender-sensitive policies," the statement said.

"The report is a crucial resource for understanding the demographic changes and their implications for both women and men in India. It serves as a vital tool for advocacy and action to promote gender equity and ensure that development efforts are inclusive and sustainable," it added.

(With inputs from agencies)